I began receiving e-mails two weeks ago from Geoff Freeze, an Albuquerque resident who has developed a ratings formula for boys and girls teams in each class. He has submitted his ratings projections for the first round of the state tournament for all five classes.
Enjoy.
The fun begins in just a few hours, and if you're out on the road tonight, you probably will see evidence of that in the form of cars decorated in congratulations on their windows and buses heading back home.
So, if you want more to feed on for the coming hours and days, here you go.
Here are my predictions for tonight's area games. I'd need a lot more caffeine to do all 24 big-school games tonight. Maybe tomorrow. Just wait and see.
Class AAAA No. 7 Belen at No. 10 Española Valley, 6 p.m. - This might be the most entertaining game in AAAA tonight. The Lady Sundevils got the home game for being the District 2AAA champions, and it might prove worthwhile. They will try to press and force turnovers against the taller lady Eagles, but Belen has some very good shooters. Too good, in fact.
Verdict: Belen 56, Española 50
No. 13 Los Alamos at No. 4 Kirtland Central, 7 p.m. If you had told me after last year that these two teams would be, I'd have responded by saying, "That's a good quarterfinal matchup." But a lot has happened on The Hill. Most of it surrounds the transition from former head coach Gerry Washburn to Tara Logan. This team had Top-4 material heading into the year, but it never materialized. That said, if Los Alamos puts together a strong game, it can pull off the upset. But that's been a challenge all year.
Verdict: Kirtland Central 55, Los Alamos 45
Class AAA
No. 16 Wingate at No. 1 Pojoaque, 7 p.m. Blowout, rout, thumped, thrashed, blasted. Use any of those words to describe tonight. The reason to watch this game? To see the Elkettes tie the 1997-98 team's 28-0 record. Win No. 28 in 1998 was for a AAA title. Win No. 28 in 2009 is to get to Albuquerque for the defending state champions.
Verdict: Pojoaque 57, Wingate 26
No. 13 Thoreau at No. 4 St. Michael's, 7 p.m. The Lady Hawks beat Albuquerque Hope Christian in the 5AAA tournaments, and normally that should be a note of concern for any opponents, much less the Lady Horsemen. But the Lady Huskies are not the same team - they lost 10 straight games, including a 63-50 decision over St. Michael's in December, before responding with an 8-0 district record. So that win might not be as significant. Still, the Lady Horsemen are in no position to overlook Thoreau. Their 2AAA semifinal loss to West Las Vegas is an example of what can happen.
Verdict: St. Michael's 54, Thoreau 43.
No. 10 Ruidoso at No. 7 West Las Vegas, 7 p.m. The Lady Warriors have been competitive since the calendar flipped to 2009. Their seven losses since then have been by less than 14 points, including two to No. 2 Portales and three to No. 3 Lovington. But then there's this: West Las Vegas 68, Ruidoso 51, Brian Gallegos Tournament championship.
Verdict: West Las Vegas 63, Ruidoso 51.
No. 11 Las Vegas Robertson at No. 6 Crownpoint 6 p.m. If you stare at Crownpoint's 19-7 record, you can convince yourself the Lady Eagles are tough. Then you take away a 10-2 1AAA record and a win in the district tournament. That leaves an 8-5 team. Then strip wins over Class AA Rehoboth, Navajo Prep (twice), and A school Ramah, and you have ... a 3-5 team against nondistrict schools AAA and above. Oh, and remove that win over Miyamura in the Shiprock tournament in December. And you've got ... Ummm .... Good luck, Lady Eagles!
Verdict: Robertson 58, Crownpoint 52.
No. 12 Santa Fe Indian School at No. 5 Hope Christian, 7 p.m. Just like the Robertson-Crownpointmatchup, this one has upset written all over it. If you read the capsule for the St. Michael's game, then you know that Hope Christian is a weak fifth. And the Lady Braves are as strong a 12 seed as you can get. There's also history on the SFIS side: The 12 seed in AAA has reached the semifinals the last two years.
Verdict: SFIS 51, Hope Christian 46.
So no final predictions by me. I would have been way off anyway, based on what the committee did. Seems to me, in some instances, the committee put teams in hat. Or just pointed to a name. More in this in a moment. Here's the list: Class AAAAA 1. Manzano 2. Gallup 3. Highland 4. La Cueva 5. Clovis 6. Valley 7. Las Cruces 8. Hobbs 9. Eldorado 10. Rio Grande 11. Onate 12. Alamogordo 13. Rio Rancho 14. Sandia 15. Santa Fe 16. Cibola
Class AAAA 1. Espanola 2. Deming 3. Roswell 4. Artesia 5. Los Alamos 6. Academy 7. Belen 8. St. Pius 9. Bernalillo 10. Capital 11. Grants 12. Farmington 13. Silver 14. Del Norte 15. Goddard 16. Santa Teresa
Class AAA 1. Hope Christian 2. St. Michael's 3. Portales 4. Sandia Prep 5. Wingate 6. Bloomfield 7. Pojoaque 8. Lovington 9. Santa Fe Indian 10. Ruidoso 11. Socorro 12. W. Las Vegas 13. Hatch 14. Crownpoint 15. Newcomb 16. Dexter
1. Española Valley (23-4). The case has been made almost from the start of the year. The Sundevils have the best resume of all off AAAA. 2. Deming (21-6). Yes, i know I said Roswell had to win to keep its two-seed, but upon further review ... The Wildcats beat Silver three times, and beat Roswell and Artesiaafter a 5-6 start. And their the District 3AAAA champions. 3. Roswell (19-7). The Coyotes, meanwhile, lost to Silver and Artesia while Deming got hot. Those two losses were enough to convince me to drop them one spot. 4. St. Pius X (20-9). There is an argument for Artesia to be here. But I will use the "last 10 games" argument to make my point. Sartans: 8-2, 6AAAA championship. Bulldogs: 5-5, 3AAAA runners-up. Enough said. 5. Artesia (19-8). the Bulldogs made a valiant effort to resurrect their district - and top seedings - hopes, but they just couldn't pull it off. Even so, they had just enough of a resume to one-up ... 6. Los Alamos (19-9). The Hilltoppers have wins over Albuquerque Academy, Belen (twice), Española, Farmington and Capital to show for their efforts. Another win over the Sundevils, though, would have gotten them a five. 7. Belen (17-11). The Eagles went 2-2 with the Sartans, and two wins over Silver(the 3AAAA runner-up), but there are the troubling losses to Los Lunas and West Mesa. Plus the two losses to Los Alamos and a loss-turned-forfeited-win to Academy. But they were good down the stretch (8-2). 8. Albuquerque Academy (8-19). I think the committee will have just as much trouble with thhe Chargers as I have. They play the toughest schedule in AAAA and without the forfeits, are 16-11. What they have going for them is an eight-game winning streak plus a win over La Cueva. 9. Bernalillo (15-12). The Spartans loss to Capital in the 2AAAA quarterfinals helped the Jaguars, but didn't hurt the Sartans. 10. Capital (16-13). The Jaguars benefit from Los Alamos' stagnation, and get bumped here to avoid the district foes rule for the opening round. 11. Farmington (13-13). The Scorpions are the 1AAAA champions. Let's leave it at that. 12. Grants (17-9). Just think of where you'd be in Class AAA? Too bad you still haven't gotten the phone call from three years ago that you're in AAAA now. 13. Silver (13-15). The Colts did the best they could in their no-win situation. A loss before facing Deming in the 3AAAA tourney could have dropped them, but they took care of business. 14. Santa Teresa (15-12). Boy, aren't you guys glad you beat Artesia earlier in the year. Let's see how you do against the Coyotes. 15. Shiprock (15-11). Congrats are making the tournament, Chieftains. Don't get lost on the way to Deming. 15. Del Norte (11-17). From the "What Have You For Me Lately?" files: Del Norte: 6-4, 6AAAA runner-up. Roswell Goddard: 2-8. Winless in 4AAAA. It was nice knowing you Rockets.
As we speak, the seeding and selection committees for Classes AAA-AAAAA are meeting to set the brackets the state boys and girls basketball tournament, which start Friday and Saturday. So, I will conclude this madness with my last seeding updates. Here we go:
Class AAAAA 1. Manzano (25-2). The Monarchs completed their domination of District 5AAAAA with a thrilling 68-66 win over Highland. They have won 15 in a row and are clearly at the head of the class. 2. Gallup (23-3). The Bengals are the hottest team in the state, with 19 consecutive wins. The 1AAAAA champions beat Rio Rancho 74-62 on Saturday. 3. La Cueva (21-7). The Bears benefited from Clovis' 54-49 win over Hobbs in the 4AAAAA championship, while they took care of business by beating Valley 65-55 on Saturday. 4. Las Cruces (21-5). Count the Bulldawgs as another team to benefit from the Wildcats' performance. They took an eraser to a late-season loss to Mayfield with a 64-54 overtime win over Oñate in the 3AAAAA championship. 5. Clovis (19-9). The Wildcats did the most damage to the AAAAA bracket with wins in consecutive weeks over Hobbs. 6. Highland (23-6). The Hornets made an incredible comeback after a 1-4 start in 1AAAAA, but those losses to Rio Grande and Eldorado still crippled their movement up the seedings charts. That and they have yet to prove they can beat Manzano (0-4 after Saturday's loss). 7. Hobbs (21-6). Conventional wisdom would say the Eagles wouldn't fall this far from its No. 2 it protected up until Saturday, but the ascent of the Wildcats and the Hornets proved crucial. 8. Valley (20-8). The Vikings complete a top-half of a very competitive bracket. 9. Rio Grande (16-11). The Ravens are here instead of Eldorado because of a 2-1 edge they hold over their 5AAAAA rivals. 10. Eldorado (18-10). Just two weeks ago, the Eagles were Top-6 material. After a 2-3 limp into the state tournament, this is where they fell. 11. Oñate (16-11). A 5-2 finish helped the Knights grab the runner-up spot in 3AAAAA. But they also could get the dubious honor of facing a hot Highland team in the opening round. 12. Almogordo (18-9). Team A lost four of its lasts six games. Team B lost four of its last six games. One finished third in district, the other was the runner-up. Team A has a signature AAAAA win over Eldorado. Team B counters with ... Sandia? Here you go, Alamo. 13. Rio Rancho (14-13). And meet your Team B. Rio Rancho (14-13). Now meet your Team B. Sorry Rams. 14. Carlsbad (12-15). You might be saying "What???" with this selection, but the Cavemen get the bump because of La Cueva's third seed. And they did beat Alamogordo, which is a better AAAAA win than the last two schools. 15. Sandia (13-14). The Matadors should be a 14 seed, and I contemplated putting them at 13 because of a split with Rio Rancho, but a 1-2 mark against Santa Fe High .... Well, it just rubbed me the wrong way. And hence, a 15. And now for the finale .... 16. Santa Fe High (12-17). Sorry Gadsden, but what did you do? Going 12-13 is not good enough when your most significant win is over Carlsbad, who doesn't deserve to be a No. 14. The Demons beat Sandia twice, and has five wins over AAAAA teams. So upgrade next year, Panthers. And win a few more games, too.
I have been a member of the Sports Department since 2003, and I can't believe it's been that long! My job is to cover prep sports to the best of my ability, and trust me, I eat, drink, sleep, shower, shave, take out the trash, fill the gas tank, make my car payment and live prep sports.
having spent the last 25 years in New Mexico has given me the opportunity to witness the evolution of prep sports on the New Mexico community in general, and Northern New Mexico in particular.
I'm also an alumnus of The University of New Mexico, which blended real well in this department (At one time, three NMSU grads flanked me).
It's hard for me not to be a sports fan, especially when it comes to the Boston Red Sox, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Boston Celtics.
I finally made the commitment to be a Santa Fean. If you wanna buy me a drink - or pay for food - a working journalist will usually not pass that up.
Posts
