Churning out more of the Bracketology

With the regular season entering its final week, the jockeying for position for the state tournament will be hectic. Today, I'll crank up a revised AAAA bracket and try to finish AAA. I also would like to get the girls done as well, so we'll see how that works this week.


Class AAAA
1. Española Valley (17-7). All the Sundevils have to do is win their last three games and the No. 1 seed is theirs. And yes, a loss to St. Michael's could hurt just from the standpoint that an eight-loss team trumping a six-loss team (in Gallup, assuming it wins out) with losses to a bad AAAAA (Rio Rancho) and a good AAA team (NOT named Hope) just doesn't sit well with me. Granted, Espanola will still be undefeated against AAAA competition and that just might be enough to keep them here.
2. Gallup (17-6). The Bengals are three wins away from a 20-win season, and that is quite an accomplishment. They also would have finished with an 11-game winning streak, which is equally impressive because, if you follow the NCAA Tournament standards, how you finish is as important as what you finish. Still, they lost to Española. The only way to rectify that is to ... Well, beat the Sundevils. Won't happen til State.
3. Santa Teresa (15-8). This is where head-to-head plays a role, and the Desert Warriors own a win over the Coyotes of Roswell. As long as they keep trucking along in 3AAAA (2-0 in district, 10-straight wins overall), they deserve to stay ahead of ...
4. Roswell (17-4). Yes, the Coyotes' record is very good, but their mark in AAAA competition (8-2) ulitmately hurts. That's because the losses are to Santa Teresa and to lowly Los Lunas. Good resume, just not good enough to stay ahead of the Desert Warriors.
5. St. Pius X (15-8). The "How you finish" axiom applies here as well. The Sartans have won 11 in a row, 13 of 14 and barring a meltdown - possibly against Albuquerque Academy? - they will finish with an 13-game run. This is a dangerous team because its young (only one senior) and is coached by the best in AAAA - Damian Segura.
6. Grants (17-3). The Pirates stay here and can solidify this spot with a win over Gallup tonight. A loss and they fall back behind ...
7. Capital (14-7). The Jaguars are doing what they need to do - win. If they continue this trend - and Grants loses, they slide up a spot. If Pius loses, maybe they slide up two spots. But a loss, and they might find themselves in that unwanted 8-9 game.
8. Piedra Vista ( 21-3). The Panthers might be 13-2 against AAAA competition, but when your signature nondistrict win is over 12-11 Artesia and your record is 2-2 against AAAA teams with winning records, it doesn't say much. They needed to go undefeated in district, but they lost to Aztec on Thursday. So much for top-five standing.
9. Roswell Goddard (14-9). The Rockets move up because they are a 4AAAA school and Aztec is a 1AAAA one. While the Tigers will be tied with PV for the top spot in the district (provide they don't flub this week), they will be the No. 2 seed in the district tournament and their overall AAAA record is 5-3, with all wins coming in district. Goddard, meanwhile, beat Piedra Vista by a wider margin and has three of its four AAAA losses to Roswell. Enough said.
10. Aztec (15-6). Congrats on the win Tigers, but the resume doesn't hold up. Plus, we are all aware of the rule of no playing district foes in the first round. Double whammy.
11. Artesia (12-12) The Bulldogs seem to be benefitting from the rest of the rest beating up on each other. But if one of them puts together a good week, they will surely drop down if they don't win a district game (0-3 with a matchup against Roswell looming).
12. Los Lunas (10-12). The bottom five teams are just eating each other, making it hard to figure out who goes where. After beating Valencia Saturday, the Tigers have a 2-1 edge on the Jaguars. It's enough to move up to here.
13. Valencia (10-13). The Jaguars missed opportunities to move up with losses to Grants and Los Lunas. That 6-9 AAAA mark is still troubling, and it still has work to do to keep a spot for state.
14. Albuquerque Academy (9-14). The Chargers are suddenly in second place in 5AAAA, and that has them ahead of Del Norte for the moment. Their 7-3 mark against AAAA competition is looking better all the time, as well.
15. Del Norte (9-13). A two-game stumble to Academy and St. Pius has the Knights reeling a little bit, but they finish with Moriarty. As long as they don't lose to anyone other than the Chargers or the Sartans in the district tournament, they are fine.
16. Santa Fe High (8-13). The Demons are hanging on right now. A loss to Los Alamos would have been devastating, while the near-miss against Capital is encouraging. Just don't lose to Bernalillo. Unless you turn around and beat Espanola and Capital. That would save the season.

Outside looking in:
Kirtland Central (10-11). Games against Bloomfield and Aztec are must-wins. It still might not be enough, but it would make a great conversation for the deserving 16th seed.
Bernalillo (10-13). Another longshot that needs to beat the Demons and Espanola to have a hope and prayer. My advice would be to pray. A lot.