It's getting hard to stay true to my No. 1 selection so far in my projections. Gallup and Española are very similar in almost every way, but that season-opening game in The Pit is becoming a larger factor as the season comes to a close. Do I keep Gallup ranked high for its continued excellence? Or have the Sundevils done enough to sway me that they are the new No. 1? After watching them dismantle Capital again ... Well, I knew it would come to something like this.
1. Española (16-7). Hey, the Sundevils still have scoreboard on the Bengals. That won't change unless someone loses unexpectedly. And if there's a team to do it, the Demons of Santa Fe High are the ones. You've earned this spot, Española. For now.
2. Gallup (16-6). The Bengals have won seven in a row - just like the Sundevils - and they have an impressive 71-60 District 6AAAA win over Grants on the road. It would be easier to call the top two seeds 1 and 1A, but for now, we'll settle for No. 2
3. Roswell (19-3). The Coyotes bested their toughest 4AAAA foe in Roswell Goddard, and followed that with a tough road win at Artesia. This is another spot I am struggling with. Coming up through the pack is Santa Teresa, and it has a win over these Coyotes. Their hold is precarious, and a loss - Hello, Clovis? - could tip the scales.
4. Santa Teresa (14-8). This is the second-hottest hottest team in AAAA (nine in a row), and there doesn't appear to be a team to stand in the Desert Warriors' way in 3AAAA. They are licking their chops at a chance to move up to No. 3.
5. Piedra Vista (20-2). It's hard to penalize the hottest team in the class (11 in a row), but this is where quality trumps quantity. And with struggles to beat Farmington and Bloomfield in 1AAAA play, the Panthers look good on paper, but their poor strength of schedule hurts them this time of year.
6. Albuquerque St. Pius X (12-8). Speaking of streaking teams, the Sartans are on an eight-game roll. Weather, though, cost them a crucial game that could have determined this spot head-to-head with Capital. Alas, the game is gone, but the Sartans benefit from the Jaguars' inability to beat Espanola Valley.
7. Grants (15-3). The Pirates also jump ahead of the Jaguars for one reason: Grants is 6-2 since the turn of the calendar, while Capital is 4-5. The Jaguars have a win over Grants, but that is weighed down by a loss to Albuquerque Academy and a pair to Española.
8. Capital (12-7). If a team needs to go on a run, it's the Jaguars. They keep losing spots as they continue their inconsistent play. Two intracity (and 2AAAA) games with Santa Fe High loom, and the Demons are hungry for a win.
9. Aztec (13-6). The Tigers are 3-1 in 1AAAA, but did struggle against Bloomfield and Farmington (The Scorpions seem to be the team that plays everyone tough, but can't win a big game. Like Santa Fe High). They can't afford slip-ups against the rest of the district outside of Piedra Vista, or else ...
10. Roswell Goddard (14-9). Again, more tough decisions. The Rockets lost to Roswell, but losses to Santa Teresa and Clovis bode well for them. As long as they take care of Artesia, they should move up to a nine or maybe an eight by Feb. 27.
11. Artesia (12-11). The Bulldogs are 0-2 in 4AAAA, but look at their recent losses: Santa Teresa, Clovis, Hobbs, Roswell and Goddard. Hard to penalize a team for good losses (all but the Wildcats and Eagles beat Artesia by more than seven points).
12. Albuquerque Del Norte (8-11). The Knights are 3-1 in 5AAAA with one more shot at beating the Sartans. If they can go at least 3-1 and finish 6-2 in the district, they'll stay right here.
13. Valencia (10-11). OK, Jaguars. Apologies here for misjudging your AAAA record. After a 3-2 start in 6AAAA got them to third, they are now 6-7 against AAAA competition. They can possibly move up with a win over Grants or Gallup and a split with Los Lunas. Otherwise, they are battling my Tigers for this spot.
14. Los Lunas (9-11). The Tigers are ready to break through that glass ceiling. But you have to win to make that happen. Tonight's home game against Gallup can go a long way toward solidifying a spot in the tournament.
15. Santa Fe High (8-12). Oh happy day for the city's signature public school! The Demons have responded in a big way (and they can thank teams like Los Alamos and Chaparral for knocking out Deming and Bernalillo off the list). A win over Capital or Espanola gets them in. A loss to Bernalillo ... Well, it will be district tournament or bust then.
16. Kirtland Central (10-10). Again, another team that benefits from the failures of Deming, Bernalillo ... Oh, and Albuquerque Academy. The Broncos have rebounded enough to get back in the think of things. But a bad loss will have them in the garbage pail with the other outsiders trying to claw their way out.
O-L-I (Outsiders Looking In)
Deming (10-13). Look what an 0-2 3AAAA start does to you. The Wildcats need help to get back in.
Albuquerque Academy (6-14). You can play as tough a schedule as you want, but you have to produce wins. A 4-3 AAAA mark with a win over Capital looks good, but 2-11 against the rest? Yikes. Beat Del Norte or St. Pius, then we'll talk.
Bernalillo (10-11). You have to wonder what fear the Spartans would strike if injuries didn't get them. And being swept by Los Alamos.
Los Alamos (6-17). This is the wildest of all wild cards, but the Hilltoppers are scaring 2AAAA coaches (well, maybe earning a great deal of respect). If they had beaten Santa Fe High on Tuesday, the Demons would be the desperate ones here. Alas, it is the Hilltoppers.
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Of Course you should have Espanola at #1, they are the team that looks the best.
ReplyDeleteThey beat Gallup, and has all their younger players in for a majority of the game.
It would be safe to have the locked at #1, the last school they are going to lose to is Santa Fe, a shocker that you think they can take Espanola? not by a longshot.
Didn't say they would. Just said it's the game that stands in their way of the top seed. To be frank, that loss to Rio Rancho was why I had them in No. 2. I know guys were sick and not able to play, but still ... it wasn't a good loss. And Gallup beat them as well. what helps Espanola is that it is undefeated against AAAA competition. That, as much as anything, tipped it in the Sundevils' favor.
ReplyDeleteBarron - spot on as usual. I think EV bests Gallup for the top spot; tougher schedule.
ReplyDeleteCan Grants end up a six? They beat Valencia last night on the road and only games remaining are with Belen and Miyamura.
Oh, and then there's that home game with Gallup. Pirates undefeated at home this year - do they need that win to get a six? Would that win net them a five?
PV loss to Aztec last night makes their hold VERY TENUOUS if you as me - I wasn't convinced before hand, and this only solidified my thoughts.
Espanola and Gallup may stay unbeaten in Districts, Espanola will have that one more loss than Gallup, but I still think the NMAA seeding committee will have Espanola at #1.
ReplyDeleteIf Espanola recieved a #2 seed, that would even be better, despite the low turn out at Sundevil games compared to years past, those fans are in for a suprise. I really think Espanola will take it this year.