AAA bracketology

Here's where I see Class AAA heading into this weekend:

1. Albuquerque Hope Christian (15-3). The Huskies are as constant as the four seasons. They wouldn't just be the best team in AAA, but the best in AAAA and likely a top five seed in AAAAA. Their only losses are to the reigning AAAAA state champ (La Cueva), the current AAAAA No. 1 (Las Cruces Oñate) and an Arizona school. After building up on big school opponents, the Huskies came back down to the AAA level, beating Hatch Valley and Taos in its own tournament over the weekend.
2. St. Michael's (12-5). Here's another thing you can bank on: the Horsemen to be nipping at the Huskies' heels. Their stunning overtime win over Sandia Prep gives St. Michael's a leg up on the No. 2 seed and might get Hope Christian's attention. The win also takes some of the blight off a 49-46 loss to Socorro. A 4-1 AAA mark and a win over Wingate also adds luster.
3. Wingate (12-1). The tempting choice is to make it three-for-three with District 5AAA schools, but it's hard to discard a 12-1 record and a 4-1 mark in AAA. The lone loss was a mystifying 19-point loss to St. Michael's and two wins come against West Las Vegas, but an 87-86 win over Socorro lends credibility in my mind for a 3 spot.
4. Albuquerque Sandia Preparatory (12-5). The Sundevils closely follow the St. Michael's and Hope Christian route of scheduling, and four of their five losses are to bigger schools or to out-of-state programs. But that one loss to St. Michael's hurt, but the path to a top-three seed is filled with opportunities.
4. Taos (11-5). The logjam of teams with winning records and similar resumes begins here. Taos is the best of the rest based on a 3-1 mark against AAA teams and a 57-51 win over Socorro during the Ben Lujan Tournament. Granted, their best AAA win pales to Socorro, but head-to-head still counts for something. Also, the Tigers' lone AAA loss is to ... Hope Christian. So there.
5. Socorro (10-6). Socorro done its part to play as many AAA teams as possible, going 6-3 with a big win over the Horsemen. The Warriors also have losses to Sandia Prep, Wingate and Pojoaque, but the difference is that they beat the Horsemen.
6. Pojoaque Valley (11-6). The Elks have their chance to match Socorro's feat tomorrow when the Horsemen come to Jacona. They are 3-1 against AAA competition with a win over Socorro and SFIS, but that is weighed down by a loss to Portales. We won't go into The Streak, but a win over St. Michael's will move them up several spots.
7. Portales (8-5). The Rams can boast of a win over Pojoaque, although that can be tempered by losses to Las Vegas Robertson and Taos. However, they have an impressive win over Roswell and close losses to Albuquerque St. Pius X and Artesia. That makes their overall body of work stack up better.
8. Santa Fe Indian School (8-6). The Braves are a hard read. On one end, they have wins over schools AA and below, but three against AAAA teams. A 3-1 mark in-class looks good, but ... SFIS is hitting the skids right now, having lost four of its last five games. And a big matchup against St. Michael's looms next week. On the plus side, 5AAA has all of its teams in the top 8 ... for now.
9. Las Vegas Robertson (10-6). The Cardinals stumbled through a 2-2 stretch in late December, but rebounded with three straight wins, including one over the stumbling Braves. So why are they still behind SFIS? One reason - six wins over AA shools and one over an A team. Plus, Robertson is 2-4 against AAA competition with the losses coming to the Braves, St. Michael's (47-22), Sandia Prep (70-45) and Socorro (49-48).
10. Ruidoso (8-8). The Warriors should peitition to move to 3AAA because they would hold their own. They are 4-3 against 3AAA - which is also all of their AAA games. They were swept by Artesia and Goddard, two AAAA schools in good standing in that bracket. So here they are.
11. Silver (7-9). The Colts are undefeated in AAA. Too bad they've only played 4-12 West Las Vegas and winless Cobre. Silver has played 11 games against AAAA teams and Arizona schools, with close losses to Artesia (71-70) and a 67-65 verdict the first time it played Deming. Silver can also brag that it is the only 3AAA school Ruidoso hasn't played. That might not be a good thing right now, though.
12. Lovington (6-9). The Wildcats can boast about a 67-64 win over Goddard in early December, but they are an unknown quantity because they have yet to play a AAA team. Of course, the hard thing for southeastern school is to play nondistrict AAA schools because they are on the other side of the state. So the 4AAA season will say a lot about them.
13. Hot Springs (7-9). The pickings start slimming down here. The Tigers are 2-2 vs. AAA teams, but they've played only two teams (1-2 to Ruidoso). They're also an impressive 3-1 ... against A schools (one win was over McCurdy School). Given that Hot Springs' compeition is the rest of 3AAA and 1AAAA, it's enough to get them this high.
14. Shiprock (6-11). The Cheiftains have only one AAA matchup under their belt - a 55-35 win over Raton - but they have played a strong nondistrict schedule. By strong, we mean not playing more than two games against sub-AAA teams. Wins over Farmington and former district 'mate Bloomfield strengthen their position.
15. West Las Vegas (4-12). If you saw Zuni bringing up the rear and wonder why, where it is. West Las Vegas played just three AA schools and has a win over Silver. Oh, and over Deming. Oh, and the Dons have a stronger nondistrict schedule. Oh, and they play in a tougher district than 3AAA and 1AAA. But they better beat Raton. Just saying.
14. Zuni (5-7). If it were up to me, Zuni would only get to compete for a spot in the Class A Tournament - and not make it in that one either because of a 3-5 mark. Luckily, wins over Hatch Valley and Raton give the Thunderbirds a 2-2 mark against AAA teams, but they'll need to finish at least second in 1AAA to solidify a spot.

As for the outsiders, only one need apply:
Hatch Valley (3-11). Because 1AAA ... Well, for lack of a better term, it sucks. And it already has three teams in. What does that say about the Bears? Well, better to give somebody hope.