Bracketology 2011 (AAAA version)

So after the start of the district season in 2AAAA boys, it seems like a good time to start thinking about ... SEEDINGS! It's five weeks away, and you know coaches/athletic directors/players are all thinking it. Without further ado ...

1. Gallup (11-6). If not for Espanola's struggles (granted, it has played the toughest schedule in AAAA), the Sundevils would be sitting pretty at this spot. Still, Gallup has done very well against AAAA competition (5-1). However, if Espanola runs the table in 2AAAA, it won't be hard for me to knock the Bengals to No. 2 because of one thing: Espanola 69, Gallup 57. That season opening game in The Pit could be the tipping point. Emphasis on could.
2. Espanola Valley (10-7). The Sundevils are 3-0 against AAAA competition, but they have some blemishes. The 0-3 mark against Hope Christian, the top team in AAA, doesn't help, and that 42-41 loss to Rio Rancho doesn't sit well, either. All can be forgiven if the Sundevils can run the table in the district. Last night's 62-61 squeaker over Santa Fe High, however, indicates that might be a hard feat to accomplish.
3. Roswell (11-3). The reigning AAAA champion is prowling under the radar, although a 53-48 loss to Santa Teresa makes the Coyotes a shaky 3. They benefit from the fellow shakiness of Capital, Grants and the unknown quantity that Piedra Vista is. Roswell has a 5-2 mark in the class, but the losses are to the Desert Warriors and to Los Lunas. Also hindering the Coyotes is a nondistrict schedule that pit them against 4AAAA foes Roswell Goddard (twice) and Artesia plus two games against a pedestrian Deming squad. The upside is a 73-72 win over Hobbs (although this might be the weakest Eagles team in years).
4. Piedra Vista (15-2). The Panthers stocked up on AAAA schools and enjoy an 8-1 mark against them. The one loss is to a surging Goddard team, but they have beaten only one school (District 1AAAA foe Aztec in Aztec's tournament) with a winning record. Still, their resume looks better than any other team. At the moment.
5. Capital (10-5). Yes, I fought the urge to stick the Jaguars higher, but reason came to me. They are 5-1 against AAAA competition, but the one loss is to Albuquerque Academy in a game that they had to rally from a 46-29 deficit. The 2-3 stumble to start January is troublesome, too, although the 62-47 win over Grants helps. Capital will reveal a lot on Saturday when it plays host to Espanola. A win would help them shatter the glass ceiling they appear to be struggling to break.
6. Grants (12-2). The Pirates' 8-1 mark in AAAA is pretty impressive, but it could have been better with a win over Capital. The knock on Grants is its subpar nondistrict schedule, and there is some merit to it. Only Capital and Bloomfield are at least. 500, and the Pirates own two wins over Miyamura (3-10) and 1-17 Moriarty. Granted, Capital has a win over Moriarty as well, but the Jaguars also have a win over the Pirates.
7. Santa Teresa (8-7). The Desert Warriors pulled off a couple of good wins over Roswell and Goddard, which raises their stock and may prove beneficial come February. The positive is that of their eight losses, seven are to AAAAA teams or Texas schools. A 4-1 mark against AAAA schools can only help, especially with the one loss coming to Española. This is a team to watch over the coming weeks.
8. Los Lunas (8-7). The Tigers are a conundrum. They have a 6-2 AAAA record, but two of their losses (to Albuquerque Atrisco Heritage and Albuquerque del Norte) came to teams they beat earlier in the year. That's not a good sign going into District 6AAAA play (where you play teams twice) .The positive is the win over Roswell. Thank God they don't have to play them again.
9. Goddard (10-6). The Rockets' signature win over Piedra Vista is muted by a 3-3 in-class mark. Losses to Roswell (twice) and Santa Teresa are not bad losses, but it's enough to take the edge off a good start. A win over the Coyotes could push them into a home game.
10. Albuquerque St. Pius X (8-8). Yes, the Sartans might be a .500 team, but their work so far merits a 10 seed. They are 4-2 against AAAA schools and have two competitive losses to Gallup and Grants. Their win over Bernalillo, which is a tournament team at this moment (see later), is their brightest spot.
11. Aztec (10-6). The Tigers' problem is that they have three wins over AA schools and four over AAA schools. They do not own a significant over a AAAA school, unless Miyamura counts. A 70-44 loss to Piedra Vista in Aztec's own tournament doesn't help the cause either.
12. Artesia (10-6). If the Bulldogs were in Class AAA, they'd be a high seed. Seven of their wins come against that class. Against AAAA, the record is 2-4 and the wins are against Deming (9-11) and a one-win Belen team. Yikes.
13. Albuquerque Academy (6-10). Yes, a 6-10 team is in before some other schools with better records. Why? Try a 4-1 mark in AAAA, with a win over Capital and a 76-60 loss to Piedra Vista. Also, all but one loss has come against AAAAA teams or schools out of the state. The wins over Farmington (5-11), Belen and Moriarty might not count for much, but that win over Capital sure does.
14. Bernalillo (9-8). Welcome to AAAA's bi-polar team. The Sartans started off 1-4, then won seven of eight. They find themselves in a 1-3 slump and a 57-44 District 2AAAA-opening loss at Los Alamos might be the albatross that they can't lose. Wins over Valencia and Atrisco Heritage are good, but Bernalillo is a team that's one more bad loss (hello, Santa Fe High) from fighting for its playoff life.
16. Deming (9-11). The Wildcats are in the inside looking out because of a 3-4 mark in AAAA and a win over Artesia. But a 6-1 mark against AAA teams does not bode well.
15. Kirtland Central (8-8). This is the best out of a bad bunch. They have wins over five-win teams (Los Alamos and Farmington) and are 3-4 against AAAA competition. It's a better reume than the rest of the teams. But not by much.


Close but no ..

Bloomfield (8-8). The Bobcats have played just three AAAA schools and have only a win over Miyamura. Add two wins over AA schools and a win over Class A Magdalena, and Bloomfield has some work to do in district play.
Albuquerque Del Norte (6-10). The Knights are a team on the rise. After a 1-8 start, they have gone 5-2 and almost beat Capital at home. Wins over Bernalillo and Kirtland Central are attractice, but it's hard to wipe away a 1-8 start. But they are doing it.
Valencia (7-10). The Jaguars barely make it on this list. A 2-7 mark in-class makes them a hard sell. But there are wins to be had in a district that has Gallup, Grants and Los Lunas. Get to work.
Santa Fe High (5-10). The Demons are two made free throws from making a compelling argument for the state tournament. IF they had beaten Española Wednesday night, they would have a win that trumps a lot of other school. The task then would be to continue to build on that. As it stands now, Saturday's game against Los Alamos is a make-or-break game. A win keeps their playoff hopes alive. A loss will take a huge winning streak for the committee to forget it. Oh, and wins over Espanola and Capital would help.