Upset No. 2 is in ... From Class AA girls ...

The fourth-seeded Mora Rangerettes were upset by No. 5 Lordsburg Lady Mavericks 70-66 in the opening AA quarterfinal in the Santa Ana Star Center. Lordsburg moves on to the AA semifinals, where it face the winner between No. 1 Texico and No. 8 Peñasco, which starts at 3 p.m.
Mora, the District 4AA champion, finishes its season at 22-7.

First upset of the day ...

And it is brought to you by the Las vegas Robertson Lady Cardinals. Robertson, the 11th seed in the Class AAA Girls State Basketball Tournament, beats No. 3 Lovington 65-55 in the opening game in The Pit.
The Lady Cardinals play the winner of No. 7 West Las Vegas and No. 2 Portales, the 11:30 a.m. game today.
Check in tomorrow for Pancho Morris' story on Robertson's upset.

Blogging in Albuquerque ...

If you care to know where I'll be for the next five days, I can pretty much tell you to look for me in two places.
The Pit in Albuquerque.
The Santa Ana Star Center in Rio Rancho.
The most exciting part of the year is now upon us.
Starting tomorrow, the girls state tournament will begin in Albuquerque.
Of course, the New Mexican will be there to provide coverage from the opening tip (literally, the Las Vegas Robertson girls kick off the festivities at 8 a.m.) to the final buzzer (or almost, the AAAA finale ends at about 6 p.m.).
With that in mind, the New Mexican will unveil (or in the words of Henry Lopez, our Web Editor, "drop") it's state tournament page with as much information as we can put on it.
It will include message forums for fans to chat on, updates of games and stories that ran in the day's section.
You will need to register to participate in some of the functions, but is to better ensure a civilized - and fun - time for all involved.
Even me.
So enjoy.

Freeze ratings

I began receiving e-mails two weeks ago from Geoff Freeze, an Albuquerque resident who has developed a ratings formula for boys and girls teams in each class. He has submitted his ratings projections for the first round of the state tournament for all five classes.
Enjoy.

Possible Upsets - highlighted in yellow

Expected Upsets - highlighted in red

Home team in CAPS

Boys

Class AAAAA

No. 1 MANZANO - 16 Cibola +23

2 GALLUP - 15 Santa Fe +15

3 HIGHLAND - 14 Sandia +16

4 LA CUEVA - 13 Rio Rancho + 2

5 CLOVIS - 12 Alamogordo + 9

6 VALLEY - 11 Oñate + 4

7 LAS CRUCES - 10 Rio Grande + 6

8 HOBBS - 9 Eldorado + 6

Class AAAA

1 ESPANOLA VALLEY - 16 Santa Teresa +14

2 DEMING - 15 Roswell Goddard +18

3 ROSWELL - 14 Del Norte +14

4 ARTESIA - 13 Silver +6

5 Los Alamos -12 FARMINGTON +11

6 Alb. Academy - 11 GRANTS +13

7 BELEN - 10 Capital + 1

8 ST. PIUS - 9 Bernalillo + 6

Class AAA

1 HOPE CHRISTIAN - 16 Dexter +37

2 ST. MICHAEL'S - 15 Newcomb +27

3 PORTALES - 14 Crownpoint +26

4 SANDIA PREP - 13 Hatch Valley +17

5 WINGATE - 12 West Las Vegas - 3

6 Bloomfield - 11 SOCORRO - 7

7 POJOAQUE - 10 Ruidoso +10

8 LOVINGTON - 9 Santa Fe Indian - 6

Class AA

SANTA ROSA - Jal +31

MESILLA VALLEY - Estancia +31

Texico- HAGERMAN +13

MESA VISTA - Mora +16

BOSQUE SCHOOL - Tularosa + 1

REHOBOTH - Escalante +14

Peñasco - PECOS + 1

CORONADO - Navajo Pine + 5

Class A

CLIFF - Valley Christian +30

SPRINGER - Santa Fe Waldorf +47

DORA - Clovis Christian +21

Fort Sumner - LOGAN +13

Reserve - TATUM + 4

Ded Moines - EVANGEL CHRISTIAN +27

Gallup Cathloic - CARRIZOZO + 6

TEMPLE BAPTIST - Mountainair +13

Feeding the State Tournament beast ...

The fun begins in just a few hours, and if you're out on the road tonight, you probably will see evidence of that in the form of cars decorated in congratulations on their windows and buses heading back home.
So, if you want more to feed on for the coming hours and days, here you go.

Here are my predictions for tonight's area games. I'd need a lot more caffeine to do all 24 big-school games tonight. Maybe tomorrow. Just wait and see.

Class AAAA
No. 7 Belen at No. 10 Española Valley, 6 p.m. - This might be the most entertaining game in AAAA tonight. The Lady Sundevils got the home game for being the District 2AAA champions, and it might prove worthwhile. They will try to press and force turnovers against the taller lady Eagles, but Belen has some very good shooters. Too good, in fact.
Verdict: Belen 56, Española 50
No. 13 Los Alamos at No. 4 Kirtland Central, 7 p.m. If you had told me after last year that these two teams would be, I'd have responded by saying, "That's a good quarterfinal matchup." But a lot has happened on The Hill. Most of it surrounds the transition from former head coach Gerry Washburn to Tara Logan. This team had Top-4 material heading into the year, but it never materialized. That said, if Los Alamos puts together a strong game, it can pull off the upset. But that's been a challenge all year.
Verdict: Kirtland Central 55, Los Alamos 45

Class AAA
No. 16 Wingate at No. 1 Pojoaque, 7 p.m. Blowout, rout, thumped, thrashed, blasted. Use any of those words to describe tonight. The reason to watch this game? To see the Elkettes tie the 1997-98 team's 28-0 record. Win No. 28 in 1998 was for a AAA title. Win No. 28 in 2009 is to get to Albuquerque for the defending state champions.
Verdict: Pojoaque 57, Wingate 26
No. 13 Thoreau at No. 4 St. Michael's, 7 p.m. The Lady Hawks beat Albuquerque Hope Christian in the 5AAA tournaments, and normally that should be a note of concern for any opponents, much less the Lady Horsemen. But the Lady Huskies are not the same team - they lost 10 straight games, including a 63-50 decision over St. Michael's in December, before responding with an 8-0 district record. So that win might not be as significant. Still, the Lady Horsemen are in no position to overlook Thoreau. Their 2AAA semifinal loss to West Las Vegas is an example of what can happen.
Verdict: St. Michael's 54, Thoreau 43.
No. 10 Ruidoso at No. 7 West Las Vegas, 7 p.m. The Lady Warriors have been competitive since the calendar flipped to 2009. Their seven losses since then have been by less than 14 points, including two to No. 2 Portales and three to No. 3 Lovington. But then there's this: West Las Vegas 68, Ruidoso 51, Brian Gallegos Tournament championship.
Verdict: West Las Vegas 63, Ruidoso 51.
No. 11 Las Vegas Robertson at No. 6 Crownpoint 6 p.m. If you stare at Crownpoint's 19-7 record, you can convince yourself the Lady Eagles are tough. Then you take away a 10-2 1AAA record and a win in the district tournament. That leaves an 8-5 team. Then strip wins over Class AA Rehoboth, Navajo Prep (twice), and A school Ramah, and you have ... a 3-5 team against nondistrict schools AAA and above. Oh, and remove that win over Miyamura in the Shiprock tournament in December. And you've got ... Ummm .... Good luck, Lady Eagles!
Verdict: Robertson 58, Crownpoint 52.
No. 12 Santa Fe Indian School at No. 5 Hope Christian, 7 p.m. Just like the Robertson-Crownpoint matchup, this one has upset written all over it. If you read the capsule for the St. Michael's game, then you know that Hope Christian is a weak fifth. And the Lady Braves are as strong a 12 seed as you can get. There's also history on the SFIS side: The 12 seed in AAA has reached the semifinals the last two years.
Verdict: SFIS 51, Hope Christian 46.

Sorry AAA, the official brackets leaked out. ...

So no final predictions by me.
I would have been way off anyway, based on what the committee did.
Seems to me, in some instances, the committee put teams in hat.
Or just pointed to a name.
More in this in a moment.
Here's the list:
Class AAAAA
1. Manzano
2. Gallup
3. Highland
4. La Cueva
5. Clovis
6. Valley
7. Las Cruces
8. Hobbs
9. Eldorado
10. Rio Grande
11. Onate
12. Alamogordo
13. Rio Rancho
14. Sandia
15. Santa Fe
16. Cibola

Class AAAA
1. Espanola
2. Deming
3. Roswell
4. Artesia
5. Los Alamos
6. Academy
7. Belen
8. St. Pius
9. Bernalillo
10. Capital
11. Grants
12. Farmington
13. Silver
14. Del Norte
15. Goddard
16. Santa Teresa

Class AAA
1. Hope Christian
2. St. Michael's
3. Portales
4. Sandia Prep
5. Wingate
6. Bloomfield
7. Pojoaque
8. Lovington
9. Santa Fe Indian
10. Ruidoso
11. Socorro
12. W. Las Vegas
13. Hatch
14. Crownpoint
15. Newcomb
16. Dexter

AAAA projections (final)

1. Española Valley (23-4). The case has been made almost from the start of the year. The Sundevils have the best resume of all off AAAA.
2. Deming (21-6). Yes, i know I said Roswell had to win to keep its two-seed, but upon further review ... The Wildcats beat Silver three times, and beat Roswell and Artesia after a 5-6 start. And their the District 3AAAA champions.
3. Roswell (19-7). The Coyotes, meanwhile, lost to Silver and Artesia while Deming got hot. Those two losses were enough to convince me to drop them one spot.
4. St. Pius X (20-9). There is an argument for Artesia to be here. But I will use the "last 10 games" argument to make my point.
Sartans: 8-2, 6AAAA championship.
Bulldogs: 5-5, 3AAAA runners-up.
Enough said.
5. Artesia (19-8). the Bulldogs made a valiant effort to resurrect their district - and top seedings - hopes, but they just couldn't pull it off. Even so, they had just enough of a resume to one-up ...
6. Los Alamos (19-9). The Hilltoppers have wins over Albuquerque Academy, Belen (twice), Española, Farmington and Capital to show for their efforts. Another win over the Sundevils, though, would have gotten them a five.
7. Belen (17-11). The Eagles went 2-2 with the Sartans, and two wins over Silver(the 3AAAA runner-up), but there are the troubling losses to Los Lunas and West Mesa. Plus the two losses to Los Alamos and a loss-turned-forfeited-win to Academy. But they were good down the stretch (8-2).
8. Albuquerque Academy (8-19). I think the committee will have just as much trouble with thhe Chargers as I have. They play the toughest schedule in AAAA and without the forfeits, are 16-11. What they have going for them is an eight-game winning streak plus a win over La Cueva.
9. Bernalillo (15-12). The Spartans loss to Capital in the 2AAAA quarterfinals helped the Jaguars, but didn't hurt the Sartans.
10. Capital (16-13). The Jaguars benefit from Los Alamos' stagnation, and get bumped here to avoid the district foes rule for the opening round.
11. Farmington (13-13). The Scorpions are the 1AAAA champions. Let's leave it at that.
12. Grants (17-9). Just think of where you'd be in Class AAA? Too bad you still haven't gotten the phone call from three years ago that you're in AAAA now.
13. Silver (13-15). The Colts did the best they could in their no-win situation. A loss before facing Deming in the 3AAAA tourney could have dropped them, but they took care of business.
14. Santa Teresa (15-12). Boy, aren't you guys glad you beat Artesia earlier in the year. Let's see how you do against the Coyotes.
15. Shiprock (15-11). Congrats are making the tournament, Chieftains. Don't get lost on the way to Deming.
15. Del Norte (11-17). From the "What Have You For Me Lately?" files:
Del Norte: 6-4, 6AAAA runner-up.
Roswell Goddard: 2-8. Winless in 4AAAA.
It was nice knowing you Rockets.