Class AAA projections

The heavy-duty work has been done, as has the researching of the teams. Now all I need to do is ... Keep up on ALL of the scores around the state, reorganize my seedings every week, and make sure the damn records are correct!
God help me if I decide to delve into the girls side ... The boys were hard enough.
So, without further ado, here are your AAA seeding projections, based solely on my conjecture. And other stuff.

1. Hope Christian (20-3). Did you even have any doubts about where the Huskies would be? Their three losses have all come to AAAAA school - with one to the current top seed in Manzano - and they have turned back the challenges of St Michael's (62-46), Sandia Prep (58-51) and Portales (72-50). Even a regular season loss to the Sun Devils - provided the Huskies win the playoff game afterward - couldn't change this seed. Hope is the best team in AAA. And probably AAAA (they did beat Española in January). And probably would be a Top 5 team in AAAAA (with wins over Valley, Eldorado and Clovis).
2. St. Michael's (15-7). Again, if anybody is shocked by this, then I'll be shocked. Of the seven losses by the Horsemen, one (to the team above) has come to a AAA team. The Horsemen are in line to run through District 2AAA- its two toughest games should be against SFIS on Saturday and Pojoaque on Feb. 20 - and set itself up nicely as the top seed in 2AAA. Of all the teams that could beat Hope, St. Michael's would be your best bet.
3. Portales (15-7). The choice was easy here. A team nicknamed the Rams would be in this spot. The question was would it be Bloomfield or Portales? Portales gets the nod by virtue of a tougher AAA nondistrict schedule (win over Socorro, losses to Hope and West Las Vegas) and a tougher schedule overall. The Socorro outcome tipped the scales in Portales' favor - it beat the Warriors 60-34, while Bloomfield eked out a 58-54 verdict.
4. Bloomfield (17-5). It could have been easy to put Sandia Prep here, but the Rams deserve to be rewarded for an 8-0 start in 1AAA. Of course, Bloomfield hasn't played as tough a schedule (being in the Northeast doesn't help) and losses to Shiprock by a 62-42 count and to Aztec (which is fourth in 1AAAA) hurt the overall resume.
5. Sandia Prep (16-6). The Sun Devils have solid AAA wins over Pojoaque, SFIS and Socorro and they have a win over St. Pius to boot. They will play second fiddle to the Huskies in 5AAA, but those contests are always close. Yet, they almost always swing Hope's way. Perhaps God wears green and gold?
6. Wingate (16-5). You want to give Socorro some love, but ... the Warriors keeping losing to the wrong teams! Like the Bears, who beat them 53-44 in January. Wingate also has played a couple of tough teams - St. Michael's and Hope - and lost to both badly, so that is cause for concern. But 16-5 is 16-5. Especially when one of the wins is the right one.
7. Socorro (12-11). That 1-7 stretch before District 3AAA play is worrisome. The Warriors were going through a spate of injuries, but they came at a crucial juncture. Socorro couldn't procure wins against St. Michael's, Portales, Wingate and Sandia Prep in that string. One or two wins would have moved the Warriors up a notch, maybe two. But here they are, playing for a home game instead of an even higher seed. But let's not forget, last year's state champ - Pojoaque - was a seven seed. Just trying to look at the bright side.
8. Pojoaque (13-8). The reigning AAA state champion Elks also had their rough patch - a five-game slide just before the 2AAA season began - and losses to Socorro and Sandia Prep came at that time. Pojoaque looks strong enough to eke out second in the district, but wouldn't a win over those hated Horsemen look nice, for once? Perhaps, but it likely won't push the Elks past Socorro.
9. Crownpoint (13-8). This is the spot West Las Vegas deserves. Alas, it can't have it, not with Pojoaque at No. 8 (district opponents cannot play each other in the first round). So, by default, the Eagles land here. They are tied with Newcomb for second, but their 56-50 win on Jan 16 trumps a 74-73 loss on Friday. Not that this is where they belong, but it is where they have to be for now.
10. West Las Vegas (13-9). When does a basket matter? It does in the Dons' case, as a last-second basket against SFIS made a 68-64 loss more palatable. It equals the 65-61 West Las Vegas win and gives the Dons the edge based on predistrict scheduling. A 68-53 win over Portales in the Stu Clark Invitational is huge at the moment. That's what has the Dons ahead of ...
11. SFIS (11-10). The Braves are at a crucial juncture in their resume building. A win over Pojoaque or St. Michael's would boosted them past West Las Vegas and give them hope of chasing down a No. 2 seed after an 0-3 start. While SFIS has not been spectacular, it also has been consistent - no bad losses, but no great wins either. A big win could give the Braves what they need to impress the committee.
12. Newcomb (11-9). The Skyhawks are here because ... to be honest, somebody has to be. The quality in AAA really diminishes after the first 11, and Newcomb is here because it has a winning record. And it beat Crownpoint, which gives it some credibility. Enough to be placed here.
13. Lovington (9-12). Again, the district bump helps a team. The Wildcats are here thanks to Portales' 3 seed and a 3-2 record in 4AAA. And they beat a lowly Aztec team - not that it makes Lovington any better. The Wildcats also have no wins over a Class A school, although three versus AA. It's better than ...
14. Thoreau (9-11). You would think a win over Newcomb would make an impression. It does, but so do losses to AA schools Rehoboth (twice) and Navajo Pine. Ditto the loss to 3AAA foe Cuba (that's 6-17 Cuba). And here you are, a 13 seed.
15. Ruidoso (8-13). If the Warriors can beat Lovington on Feb. 17 and not lose to Dexter or NMMI (which they did already last week), you can flip-flop them with Lovington. Ruidoso also might jump ahead of Newcomb, too, thanks to a win over Pojoaque in January. But the important part is no more losses.
16. NMMI (10-13). The Colts are here because they are 10-12. Their resume is better than Hatch Valley (6-17 with a win over Class A Animas) or Tohatchi (losses to Rehoboth, Questa and Navajo Prep). Now to say something good ... Let's see ... Oh, they did beat Ruidoso. And the cadet uniforms students wear? Absolutely fabulous! Winner!
And there you have it.