Projections, projections

With the district season for all basketball teams heading into the final half of their run, I figured it was time to handicap the boys seedings for the upcoming state tournaments.After all, what fun is it to simply speculate in the office when it can be done on the Web? Let's start in AAAAA because it takes some time to research all the teams in one class. Except for Albuquerque High, because 4-17 just doesn't cut it. So here it goes:
Class AAAAA
1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (21-2). The Monarchs two losses are to the No. 6 (Valley) and No. 8 (Clovis) ranked teams in AAAAA by the New Mexico High School Coaches Association, but that is cushioned by their utter dominance over No. 3 Highland,which they have beaten three times already. Manzano is also the second-hottest team in AAAAA, with an 11-game winning streak.
2. Hobbs (20-4). The Eagles laid waste to Clovis - a team that was considered a state title contender until the last three weeks - last week and have positioned themselves as the second best team in the state. It owns a win over Española Valley, which trumps ....
3. Gallup (17-3). The Bengals are on a 14-game streak and have beaten Clovis and Rio Rancho (likely the No. 2 team in Gallup's District 1AAAAA) twice. Their strength of schedule is not as good as Manzano's or Hobbs but they are playing their best ball right now.
4. Las Cruces (18-4). This is where it gets tricky. Highland has lost three straight games. La Cueva dropped two in a row. Valley could make an argument, but that 17-point loss at Las Cueva hurts. So, here are the Bulldawgs, winners of eight straight and running away with 3AAAAA at 5-0.
5. La Cueva (16-6). The Bears missed a chance to move up by losing so badly to Manzano. That followed a loss to Valley in which they had to rally from a 19-point deficit to force overtime. If they can run through 2AAAAA and beat Albuquerque Academy, La Cueva could move up if Gallup or Las Cruces slip.
6. Valley (17-5). The Vikings have rebounded from an 85-69 drubbing to La Cueva on Jan. 20, but ... there's that unpleasant loss to Los Lunas, which is toiling at the bottom of 5AAAAA. To impress the committee. Valley needs to run the table and beat La Cueva again - and likely in a playoff game to determine the top seed. But beware of a Feb. 17 meeting with Santa Fe High ...
7. Eldorado (16-6). You can make an argument for Alamogordo here, but where is the Tigers' signature win? They did beat Eldorado, but the Eagles have wins over Highland, Valley and las Cruces. They also are second in 5AAAAA at 3-1. Enough said.
8. Alamogordo (16-6). The Tigers are here because Highland is FOURTH in its district and the Wildcats of Clovis have dropped like a rock. All they need to do is stay the course and they might jump to a 6.
9. Clovis (13-9). What happened? The Wildcats were riding high after beating Manzano just a month ago, but since then? They are 3-5, including a humbling loss to Hobbs sans their head coach, J.D. Isler. Sure, Clovis has played a tough schedule, but this slump is troubling.
10. Rio Rancho (12-10). The Rams lack a signature win, although that victory over Los Alamos isn't too shabby. It's been a year of almost for Rio Rancho: Almost a win over Hobbs (61-60), Clovis (76-70) and Gallup (61-58 and 75-67 in 1AAAAA play).
11. Rio Grande (15-7). You keep waiting for Highland to pop up, but why hasn't it? Well, the Ravens (3-2) are ahead of the Hornets (1-4) in 5AAAAA. This just might be the toughest district in the state this year, and the Ravens have been tough when it counts the most. They are 4-0 in games decided by four points or less, including a 57-56 win over ...
12. Highland (17-5). Poor Chad Adams. he tweaks his ankle and the Hornets fall apart. Thank Yahweh for Los Lunas, or else Highland would have a four-game losing streak and occupy last in District 5AAAAA. Instead, it's just four of five. But the injury to Adams underscores his value. And perhaps the fragile nature of his team's psyche.
13. Carlsbad (12-11). Nothing noteworthy, other than two wins over Artesia, which should be No. 2 or 3 in AAAA. Wins over AAA schools (Portales? Lovington?) do not look good for a AAAAA school.
14. Las Cruces Oñate (13-10). Solid team with close losses to Highland (56-47), Cruces (63-57) and Rio Rancho (55-45) and is 3-2 in 3AAAAA. Alamogordo has the trump card with a win over the Knights.
15. Santa Fe High (10-13). Finish third in 2AAAAA, and punch your ticket to the postseason, Demons. A win over Valley or La Cueva will solidify it. Still, you lost to Albuquerque High!! Yuck!
16. Gadsden (11-10). The Panthers are in by virtue of being the only other AAAAA school with a winning record. Sorry, West Mesa ,Los Lunas and Cibola. Better luck next year.