Class AAAA projections

Continuing with the theme that began yesterday, we will examine the AAAA seedings.

1. Española Valley (20-4). The Sundevils have been the premier team in AAAA since the start of this season over the past two years for that matter. But the margin from first to second is not as great as it was last year. The Sundevils have two challenging District 2AAAA games to close out the regular season. Feb. 18 is a rematch against Los Alamos. This will be for the district title. A Hilltoppers win could knock the Sundevils from the top spot in the district and the seedings. If Española passes that test, it will have to best the newest challenger in the district - Bernalillo. Much work is left to be done, but the Sundevils control their destiny.
2. Roswell (17-5). The Coyotes have fared well against the better AAAA teams this year. They have wins over Belen, Capital and Artesia and were within 53-45 of the Sundevils in December. There are some troubling losses (to Portales two weeks ago and to Silver on Jan. 17), but Roswell can jump to the top spot if Española falters. And if they don't.
3. Deming (16-6). The Wildcats were Mildcats for the first 11 games of the season (5-6), but since then, they have won 11 straight games. To be fair, some of the losses were to good AAAAA teams (Gallup, Las Cruces and Alamogordo). Deming also beat Artesia during its current streak. If it can navigate past Silver twice in the last 10 days of the season, Deming could make a jump to the top seed provided the breaks go their way.
4. St. Pius X (16-7). Don't look now, but guess who's back?? Yes, those pesky Sartans, the three-time AAAA champions, are 14-2 since a 2-5 start. Add to that a convincing 63-47 win over District 6AAAA foe Belen on Tuesday and St. Pius is positioning itself as the team nobody wants to face in state. Much ofthat is a credit to head coach Damian Segura, but the Sartans have found talent to replenish their winning tradition.
5. Artesia (17-7). Sorry, Bulldogs. You may have beaten St. Pius - and Hobbs - but you're also only 5-7 since a 12-0 start. Tuesday's loss to Roswell was another blow to a team many thought might be a state title contender. Artesia gets a second chance at Roswell in the regular season closer at home, and a win there could restore some luster to its resume.

Let's stop here for a moment to bring forth a sticky situation. Albuquerque Academy, which was 8-11 heading into District 5AAAA play, had to forfeit all of its wins for using a player who hadn't been declared eligible yet. A paperwork error slowed down the process, but the player suited up as an eligible player for this duration. Due to that, the Chargers are now 3-19 - 3-0 in district - but that could muddy the selection process. How the NMAA handles it will be determined come March 1, but I will try to do my best to interpret its intention.
The only case of precedence in the recent annals of the NMAA came in 2005, when Rio Rancho lost 17 wins because a transfer student was not eligible. Rio Rancho ended up winning its district title and wound up as the top seed in the tourney despite a 5-19 record. If we were to use that as a guideline, then Academy would be treated as if it hadn't lost those games instead of a 3-19 team.
For the sake of argument, I will penalize the Chargers for the infraction by seeding them a couple of spots lower than they should be.
But onward ...

6. Los Alamos (16-7). That win over the Sundevils strengthened the Hilltoppers' resume. Then they weakened it by losing to Capital. Los Alamos needs to avoid any more slip-ups - namely, against Bernalillo on Friday and then at Capital on Feb. 21. A win over Española puts the Hilltoppers into Top-4 consideration, as well as gives them the upper hand in securing a stop seed for the 2AAAA tournament. Just don't slip up ...
7. Belen (13-9). Disclaimer: Academy this would have been your spot. Now, it belongs to the Eagles. Their most impressive victory is over Grants, and that is crucial, because it was a 6AAAA win and puts them ahead of the Pirates. Hence, a seven seed. Enjoy. For now.
8. Bernalillo (14-9). Welcome to the upper half of the AAAA bracket, Spartans. Bernalillo has turned around an uneven 6-7 start and is 8-2 since then. More important, the Spartans beat Capital twice and have the inside track to a No. 3 seed in the 2AAAA tournament. All they need is a win over Taos to solidify that spot. Of course, there are games against Los Alamos and Española remaining, and wins there would mean ... Bernalillo is the top seed? Yes!
9. Albuquerque Academy (3-19). The Chargers are in no danger of flubbing a District 4AAAA title - Del Norte, Moriarty and Valencia are a combined 11-45 - but the forfeits mean contending for a possible top five-seed to merely hoping to get in the top eight. But the Chargers will be a handful no matter where they end up seeding-wise. This seemed to be the appropriate place for them, however.
10. Farmington (9-12). Sorry, Belen. Looks like you'll be on the road for this first round game, for now. The Scorpions are another team playing their best ball at the right time, but ... where's the signature win? That win over Sandia Prep is nice. That loss to Del Norte? Not.
11. Grants (16-6). Almost beating St. Pius (54-50 last week) and Belen (58-50 on Tuesday) means the Pirates are almost a good team. You can quibble that their win over Farmington in November should put them over the Scorpions, but Grants should have more to show for its resume. It doesn't.
12. Capital (13-11). A week ago, the Jaguars had visions of getting back into the district race. Now, they are hoping Taos doesn't catch them on a bad day. Which have been increasing as of late. Since that 46-44 win over St. Pius on Jan. 17, Capital is 1-4. Too bad all of them were 2AAAA games.
13. Silver (11-11). This is what a win over Roswell will get you: a spot ahead of Shiprock. That is the basis for the Colts getting a 13 right now. But there are four key District 3AAAA games ahead - including a pair with Deming. So the chance to move up is there.
14. Piedra Vista (8-14). Did I forget to mention that the Panthers are ahead of the Cheiftains, too? It's for one reason: Piedra Vista 38, Shiprock 37. Otherwise ... Yikes!.
15. Shiprock (12-8). Did I also forget to mention District 1AAAA is the worst district in the state? It is.
16. Goddard (10-13). This was a hard one. Do you pick the third-best team in one district, or go with the runner-up of an otherwise pathetic district? It came down to the Rockets and Del Norte. How did I decide?
Goddard 68, Los Alamos 65, Jan. 2
Del Norte 59, Belen 49, Nov. 25.
Six beats seven.
Ouch.
And so close, Knights.