Updated AAAAA seedings

No better time than before the final week of the basketball season heats up and the district tournaments commence. There will be some changes in the seedings.
Some teams moved up (Valley, Rio Rancho, Clovis), while some dropped like a rock (I'm looking at you, Las Cruces and Alamogordo). But there was a flurry of activity that rearranged the middle.
At least the top three remained the same.
But there's still another week of regular season games to go. That gives teams one more week to make an impression.
Here is mine at the AAAAA level.


1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (23-2). The Monarchs wrapped up top seed in District 5AAAAA when the Highland Hornets beat Eldorado last week. But they can't back off now, not with Hobbs and Gallup right on their tail. An undefeated district season will be complete with a win over Eldorado tonight. Then they have 11 days before playing again in the tourney championship. But will that be too much rest to keep Manzano sharp?
2. Hobbs (20-4). A lot hinges on the Eagles beating Clovis on Saturday. That would ensure the top seed in the 4AAAAA tournament and keep the pressure on Manzano to win. But travelling to Wildcat Country is no easy feat. A loss could trigger a one-game playoff, and then Hobbs could be scrambling for a decent seed.
3. Gallup (17-3). The state's longest boys basketball winning streak - 16 games - partly resides here (and in Class A Clayton) and it should reach 18 after this week. The big test will be when the Rams of Rio Rancho visit Gallup, but the Bengals already beat Rio Rancho by 8 two weeks ago. Gallup has an outside shot at gaining the top seed, but that requires meltdowns from Manzano and Hobbs. The Bengals' best wins are over Clovis, Alamogordo and Rio Rancho. Not quite No. 1 material.
4. Valley (18-6). The No. 4 spot is a three-team race between the Vikings, La Cueva and Las Cruces. All three lost last week. The best loss came in Valley's 54-53 score to Highland. Valley now turns its attention to its final two 2AAAAA games - at Santa Fe High and at Sandia. Another loss here and the Vikings then have to tussle with Eldorado for No. 7. A pair of wins could set up a 2AAAAA showdown with ...
5. La Cueva (17-7). The Bears lost - again - to Albuquerque Academy, but only this one counts (the Chargers had to forfeit their Dec. 30 win). And it hurt because they had a chance to move to No. 4. La Cueva still has a shot, but it must beat Albuquerque High and Sandia to set up a district playoff with Valley.
6. Eldorado (17-7). The Eagles lost at Highland - which has regained the focus lost during a 1-4 skid at the worst time - but are wins over Manzano and Rio Grande from securing a No. 2 seed in 5AAAAA. Eldorado might enjoy a slight bounce with a win over the Monarchs, but its ceiling is really a No. 5. But a pair of losses, and the Eagles will find out how low they can go.
7. Las Cruces (19-5). There are bad losses. And there are bad losses. The Bulldogs took one against 3AAAAA bottom-feeder Mayfield on Friday (71-66). They still secured the district's top seed with an Alamogordo loss, but they also feel the sting in the eyes of this committee.
8. Clovis (15-9). The Wildcats righted their ship with wins over Carlsbad and AAAA Roswell, and thanks to slip-ups from Alamogordo and Rio Grande (losses to Manzano and AAA Hope Christian), they find themselves sneaking back up the ladder. They can rocket up the seedings with a win over Hobbs ... and another win over Hobbs (in a presumptive 3AAAAA playoff for the top seed).
9. Rio Rancho (14-10). The Rams benefit from being the runner-up in 1AAAAA behind the Bengals. You also look at their losses and realize that, outside of a season-opening loss to Sandia, the Rams have lost to some impressive teams. Two to Highland (yes, I know they are the fourth-place team in 5AAAAA ... for now), a pair tothe Bengals and one each to Clovis, Hobbs and Manzano. If only a couple of those losses were wins ....
10. Rio Grande (15-9). So much is riding on tonight's game against Highland. A win secures the third spot in 5AAAAA and prevents the Hornets from rising up into the top 8. But a loss will send the Ravens dropping further into the teens.
11. Highland (19-5). The best fourth-place district team in the state can become the best third-place district team in the state with a win over Rio Grande. And if Eldorado falters this week, we will see the Hornets get right back where they belong - somewhere in the Top 5.
12. Alamogordo (17-7). Ouch. This is what a loss to Oñate feels like. Before then, the Tigers were flirting with Top 8 status. Their loss to Rio Grande (58-57 on Jan 9) looks bigger - and worse - by the day.
13. Las Cruces Oñate (14-11). OK. Now it's time to go to the NMAA rulebook. Chances are the Knights and Alamogordo will tie for second in 3AAAAA. In that case, the tie could be settled on the point differential tiebreaker. The Tigers' 58-46 win at Oñate would trump a 39-38 Knights win on Friday. Or it could be a coin flip. Which would suck.
14. Sandia (13-11). The Matadors pretty much secured a berth with a convincing win over Santa Fe High last week (74-44). They can leave no doubt with the seeding committee with a win over Valley or La Cueva this week. In which case, Sandia would serve the role as spoiler for the Vikings or the Bears. In which case, the potential rematch in the district tournament next week could be a doozy.
15. Gadsden (12-10). The Panthers can lock up a spot with a win over Las Cruces or Alamogordo this week. If they beat Alamogordo, Oñate will slip them a nice little present. Maybe even sealed with a kiss.
16. Carlsbad (12-13). The Cavemen will go winless in 3AAAAA play (only Clovis on Feb. 17 stands in the way of that). But given that the other option is Santa Fe High, the Cavemen sneak in. For now.

How can Santa Fe High find its way into the tournament? Well, beat Valley tonight for starters. Then reach the 2AAAAA semis and they will make a solid argument. Reach the championship game (Which means winning three games in as many days) and the Demons will be in for sure. Probably as the 16th seed, but they'll be in.