Here they are, a day late as usual. Again, my apologies.
Now, back to the show ...
NMHSCA prep poll
Boys
1. Manzano (9) 117
2. Hobbs (2) 91
3. Gallup (1) 90
4. Las Cruces 77
5. Eldorado 75
6. Valley 59
7. Highland 53
8. La Cueva 41
9. Clovis 23
10. Rio Grande 18
Also receiving votes: Oñate 8, Alamogordo 7, Rio Rancho 4, West Mesa 1, Sandia 1, Gadsden 1, Los Lunas 1.
Class AAAA
1. Española (9) 142
2. Artesia (3) 116
3. Deming (1) 108
4. Roswell (1) 96
5. Los Alamos 86
6. Alb. Academy (1) 75
7. St. Pius X 65
8. Capital 48
9. Belen 40
10. Bernalillo 16
Also receiving votes: Grants 11, Silver 10, Goddard 10, Chaparral 9, Del Norte 2, Santa Teresa 1.
Class AAA
1. Hope Christian (9) 90
2. St. Michael’s 79
3. Portales 67
4. Sandia Prep 54
5. Bloomfield 46
6. Pojoaque 45
7. W. Las Vegas 30
8. Socorro 26
9. Wingate 20
10. Santa Fe Indian 19
Also receiving votes: Laguna Acoma 14, Ruidoso 5.
Class AA
1. Mesilla Valley (9) 138
2. Texico (3) 137
3. Santa Rosa (1) 113
4. Mesa Vista (1) 112
5. Bosque 75
6. Rehoboth (1) 55
7. Hagerman 45
8. Tularosa 41
9. Peñasco 40
10. Lordsburg 30
Also receiving votes: Pecos 19, Questa 15, Navajo Pine 10, Clayton 6, Jemez Valley 6, Ramah 3, Mora 3, McCurdy 2, Santa Fe Prep 2, Monte Del Sol 1, Capitan 1.
Girls
Class AAAAA
1. Rio Rancho (11) 119
2. Eldorado (1) 109
3. Las Cruces 70
4. Mayfield 67
5. (tie) La Cueva 61
5. (tie) Clovis 61
7. Valley 59
8. Sandia 41
9. Cibola 36
10. Hobbs 15
Also receiving votes: Rio Grande 9, Alamogordo 7, Gallup 6.
Class AAAA
1. St. Pius (12) 147
2. Moriarty (3) 128
3. Roswell 105
4. Kirtland Central 82
5. Deming 77
6. Shiprock 60
7. Belen 58
8. Del Norte 46
9. Alb. Academy 37
10. Aztec 30
Also receiving votes: Española 15, Grants 12, Artesia 8, Farmington 7, Volcano Vista 7, Los Alamos 3, Capital 2, Silver 1.
Class AAA
1. Pojoaque (9) 90
2. Lovington 68
3. W. Las Vegas 64
4. St. Michael’s 60
5. Portales 48
6. Santa Fe Indian 33
7. Socorro 27
8. Crownpoint 27
9. Ruidoso 26
10. Hope Christian 10 22
Also receiving votes: Las Vegas Robertson 11, Miyamura 6, Tohatchi 4, Hatch 4, Laguna Acoma 2.
Class AA
1. Texico (8) 98
2. Navajo Prep (1) 88
3. Clayton 66
4. Rehoboth 57
5. Santa Rosa (1) 50
6. (tie) Navajo Pine 44
6. (tie) Mora 44
8. Lordsburg 30
9. McCurdy 24
10. Tularosa 6
Also receiving votes: Questa 5, Jal 5, Mesa Vista 3, Estancia 3, Peñasco 2, Cloudcroft 2, Ramah 1, Capitan 1.
Feb 12, 2009
Class AAA projections
The heavy-duty work has been done, as has the researching of the teams. Now all I need to do is ... Keep up on ALL of the scores around the state, reorganize my seedings every week, and make sure the damn records are correct!
God help me if I decide to delve into the girls side ... The boys were hard enough.
So, without further ado, here are your AAA seeding projections, based solely on my conjecture. And other stuff.
1. Hope Christian (20-3). Did you even have any doubts about where the Huskies would be? Their three losses have all come to AAAAA school - with one to the current top seed in Manzano - and they have turned back the challenges of St Michael's (62-46), Sandia Prep (58-51) and Portales (72-50). Even a regular season loss to the Sun Devils - provided the Huskies win the playoff game afterward - couldn't change this seed. Hope is the best team in AAA. And probably AAAA (they did beat Española in January). And probably would be a Top 5 team in AAAAA (with wins over Valley, Eldorado and Clovis).
2. St. Michael's (15-7). Again, if anybody is shocked by this, then I'll be shocked. Of the seven losses by the Horsemen, one (to the team above) has come to a AAA team. The Horsemen are in line to run through District 2AAA- its two toughest games should be against SFIS on Saturday and Pojoaque on Feb. 20 - and set itself up nicely as the top seed in 2AAA. Of all the teams that could beat Hope, St. Michael's would be your best bet.
3. Portales (15-7). The choice was easy here. A team nicknamed the Rams would be in this spot. The question was would it be Bloomfield or Portales? Portales gets the nod by virtue of a tougher AAA nondistrict schedule (win over Socorro, losses to Hope and West Las Vegas) and a tougher schedule overall. The Socorro outcome tipped the scales in Portales' favor - it beat the Warriors 60-34, while Bloomfield eked out a 58-54 verdict.
4. Bloomfield (17-5). It could have been easy to put Sandia Prep here, but the Rams deserve to be rewarded for an 8-0 start in 1AAA. Of course, Bloomfield hasn't played as tough a schedule (being in the Northeast doesn't help) and losses to Shiprock by a 62-42 count and to Aztec (which is fourth in 1AAAA) hurt the overall resume.
5. Sandia Prep (16-6). The Sun Devils have solid AAA wins over Pojoaque, SFIS and Socorro and they have a win over St. Pius to boot. They will play second fiddle to the Huskies in 5AAA, but those contests are always close. Yet, they almost always swing Hope's way. Perhaps God wears green and gold?
6. Wingate (16-5). You want to give Socorro some love, but ... the Warriors keeping losing to the wrong teams! Like the Bears, who beat them 53-44 in January. Wingate also has played a couple of tough teams - St. Michael's and Hope - and lost to both badly, so that is cause for concern. But 16-5 is 16-5. Especially when one of the wins is the right one.
7. Socorro (12-11). That 1-7 stretch before District 3AAA play is worrisome. The Warriors were going through a spate of injuries, but they came at a crucial juncture. Socorro couldn't procure wins against St. Michael's, Portales, Wingate and Sandia Prep in that string. One or two wins would have moved the Warriors up a notch, maybe two. But here they are, playing for a home game instead of an even higher seed. But let's not forget, last year's state champ - Pojoaque - was a seven seed. Just trying to look at the bright side.
8. Pojoaque (13-8). The reigning AAA state champion Elks also had their rough patch - a five-game slide just before the 2AAA season began - and losses to Socorro and Sandia Prep came at that time. Pojoaque looks strong enough to eke out second in the district, but wouldn't a win over those hated Horsemen look nice, for once? Perhaps, but it likely won't push the Elks past Socorro.
9. Crownpoint (13-8). This is the spot West Las Vegas deserves. Alas, it can't have it, not with Pojoaque at No. 8 (district opponents cannot play each other in the first round). So, by default, the Eagles land here. They are tied with Newcomb for second, but their 56-50 win on Jan 16 trumps a 74-73 loss on Friday. Not that this is where they belong, but it is where they have to be for now.
10. West Las Vegas (13-9). When does a basket matter? It does in the Dons' case, as a last-second basket against SFIS made a 68-64 loss more palatable. It equals the 65-61 West Las Vegas win and gives the Dons the edge based on predistrict scheduling. A 68-53 win over Portales in the Stu Clark Invitational is huge at the moment. That's what has the Dons ahead of ...
11. SFIS (11-10). The Braves are at a crucial juncture in their resume building. A win over Pojoaque or St. Michael's would boosted them past West Las Vegas and give them hope of chasing down a No. 2 seed after an 0-3 start. While SFIS has not been spectacular, it also has been consistent - no bad losses, but no great wins either. A big win could give the Braves what they need to impress the committee.
12. Newcomb (11-9). The Skyhawks are here because ... to be honest, somebody has to be. The quality in AAA really diminishes after the first 11, and Newcomb is here because it has a winning record. And it beat Crownpoint, which gives it some credibility. Enough to be placed here.
13. Lovington (9-12). Again, the district bump helps a team. The Wildcats are here thanks to Portales' 3 seed and a 3-2 record in 4AAA. And they beat a lowly Aztec team - not that it makes Lovington any better. The Wildcats also have no wins over a Class A school, although three versus AA. It's better than ...
14. Thoreau (9-11). You would think a win over Newcomb would make an impression. It does, but so do losses to AA schools Rehoboth (twice) and Navajo Pine. Ditto the loss to 3AAA foe Cuba (that's 6-17 Cuba). And here you are, a 13 seed.
15. Ruidoso (8-13). If the Warriors can beat Lovington on Feb. 17 and not lose to Dexter or NMMI (which they did already last week), you can flip-flop them with Lovington. Ruidoso also might jump ahead of Newcomb, too, thanks to a win over Pojoaque in January. But the important part is no more losses.
16. NMMI (10-13). The Colts are here because they are 10-12. Their resume is better than Hatch Valley (6-17 with a win over Class A Animas) or Tohatchi (losses to Rehoboth, Questa and Navajo Prep). Now to say something good ... Let's see ... Oh, they did beat Ruidoso. And the cadet uniforms students wear? Absolutely fabulous! Winner!
And there you have it.
God help me if I decide to delve into the girls side ... The boys were hard enough.
So, without further ado, here are your AAA seeding projections, based solely on my conjecture. And other stuff.
1. Hope Christian (20-3). Did you even have any doubts about where the Huskies would be? Their three losses have all come to AAAAA school - with one to the current top seed in Manzano - and they have turned back the challenges of St Michael's (62-46), Sandia Prep (58-51) and Portales (72-50). Even a regular season loss to the Sun Devils - provided the Huskies win the playoff game afterward - couldn't change this seed. Hope is the best team in AAA. And probably AAAA (they did beat Española in January). And probably would be a Top 5 team in AAAAA (with wins over Valley, Eldorado and Clovis).
2. St. Michael's (15-7). Again, if anybody is shocked by this, then I'll be shocked. Of the seven losses by the Horsemen, one (to the team above) has come to a AAA team. The Horsemen are in line to run through District 2AAA- its two toughest games should be against SFIS on Saturday and Pojoaque on Feb. 20 - and set itself up nicely as the top seed in 2AAA. Of all the teams that could beat Hope, St. Michael's would be your best bet.
3. Portales (15-7). The choice was easy here. A team nicknamed the Rams would be in this spot. The question was would it be Bloomfield or Portales? Portales gets the nod by virtue of a tougher AAA nondistrict schedule (win over Socorro, losses to Hope and West Las Vegas) and a tougher schedule overall. The Socorro outcome tipped the scales in Portales' favor - it beat the Warriors 60-34, while Bloomfield eked out a 58-54 verdict.
4. Bloomfield (17-5). It could have been easy to put Sandia Prep here, but the Rams deserve to be rewarded for an 8-0 start in 1AAA. Of course, Bloomfield hasn't played as tough a schedule (being in the Northeast doesn't help) and losses to Shiprock by a 62-42 count and to Aztec (which is fourth in 1AAAA) hurt the overall resume.
5. Sandia Prep (16-6). The Sun Devils have solid AAA wins over Pojoaque, SFIS and Socorro and they have a win over St. Pius to boot. They will play second fiddle to the Huskies in 5AAA, but those contests are always close. Yet, they almost always swing Hope's way. Perhaps God wears green and gold?
6. Wingate (16-5). You want to give Socorro some love, but ... the Warriors keeping losing to the wrong teams! Like the Bears, who beat them 53-44 in January. Wingate also has played a couple of tough teams - St. Michael's and Hope - and lost to both badly, so that is cause for concern. But 16-5 is 16-5. Especially when one of the wins is the right one.
7. Socorro (12-11). That 1-7 stretch before District 3AAA play is worrisome. The Warriors were going through a spate of injuries, but they came at a crucial juncture. Socorro couldn't procure wins against St. Michael's, Portales, Wingate and Sandia Prep in that string. One or two wins would have moved the Warriors up a notch, maybe two. But here they are, playing for a home game instead of an even higher seed. But let's not forget, last year's state champ - Pojoaque - was a seven seed. Just trying to look at the bright side.
8. Pojoaque (13-8). The reigning AAA state champion Elks also had their rough patch - a five-game slide just before the 2AAA season began - and losses to Socorro and Sandia Prep came at that time. Pojoaque looks strong enough to eke out second in the district, but wouldn't a win over those hated Horsemen look nice, for once? Perhaps, but it likely won't push the Elks past Socorro.
9. Crownpoint (13-8). This is the spot West Las Vegas deserves. Alas, it can't have it, not with Pojoaque at No. 8 (district opponents cannot play each other in the first round). So, by default, the Eagles land here. They are tied with Newcomb for second, but their 56-50 win on Jan 16 trumps a 74-73 loss on Friday. Not that this is where they belong, but it is where they have to be for now.
10. West Las Vegas (13-9). When does a basket matter? It does in the Dons' case, as a last-second basket against SFIS made a 68-64 loss more palatable. It equals the 65-61 West Las Vegas win and gives the Dons the edge based on predistrict scheduling. A 68-53 win over Portales in the Stu Clark Invitational is huge at the moment. That's what has the Dons ahead of ...
11. SFIS (11-10). The Braves are at a crucial juncture in their resume building. A win over Pojoaque or St. Michael's would boosted them past West Las Vegas and give them hope of chasing down a No. 2 seed after an 0-3 start. While SFIS has not been spectacular, it also has been consistent - no bad losses, but no great wins either. A big win could give the Braves what they need to impress the committee.
12. Newcomb (11-9). The Skyhawks are here because ... to be honest, somebody has to be. The quality in AAA really diminishes after the first 11, and Newcomb is here because it has a winning record. And it beat Crownpoint, which gives it some credibility. Enough to be placed here.
13. Lovington (9-12). Again, the district bump helps a team. The Wildcats are here thanks to Portales' 3 seed and a 3-2 record in 4AAA. And they beat a lowly Aztec team - not that it makes Lovington any better. The Wildcats also have no wins over a Class A school, although three versus AA. It's better than ...
14. Thoreau (9-11). You would think a win over Newcomb would make an impression. It does, but so do losses to AA schools Rehoboth (twice) and Navajo Pine. Ditto the loss to 3AAA foe Cuba (that's 6-17 Cuba). And here you are, a 13 seed.
15. Ruidoso (8-13). If the Warriors can beat Lovington on Feb. 17 and not lose to Dexter or NMMI (which they did already last week), you can flip-flop them with Lovington. Ruidoso also might jump ahead of Newcomb, too, thanks to a win over Pojoaque in January. But the important part is no more losses.
16. NMMI (10-13). The Colts are here because they are 10-12. Their resume is better than Hatch Valley (6-17 with a win over Class A Animas) or Tohatchi (losses to Rehoboth, Questa and Navajo Prep). Now to say something good ... Let's see ... Oh, they did beat Ruidoso. And the cadet uniforms students wear? Absolutely fabulous! Winner!
And there you have it.
Feb 11, 2009
Class AAAA projections
Continuing with the theme that began yesterday, we will examine the AAAA seedings.
1. Española Valley (20-4). The Sundevils have been the premier team in AAAA since the start of this season over the past two years for that matter. But the margin from first to second is not as great as it was last year. The Sundevils have two challenging District 2AAAA games to close out the regular season. Feb. 18 is a rematch against Los Alamos. This will be for the district title. A Hilltoppers win could knock the Sundevils from the top spot in the district and the seedings. If Española passes that test, it will have to best the newest challenger in the district - Bernalillo. Much work is left to be done, but the Sundevils control their destiny.
2. Roswell (17-5). The Coyotes have fared well against the better AAAA teams this year. They have wins over Belen, Capital and Artesia and were within 53-45 of the Sundevils in December. There are some troubling losses (to Portales two weeks ago and to Silver on Jan. 17), but Roswell can jump to the top spot if Española falters. And if they don't.
3. Deming (16-6). The Wildcats were Mildcats for the first 11 games of the season (5-6), but since then, they have won 11 straight games. To be fair, some of the losses were to good AAAAA teams (Gallup, Las Cruces and Alamogordo). Deming also beat Artesia during its current streak. If it can navigate past Silver twice in the last 10 days of the season, Deming could make a jump to the top seed provided the breaks go their way.
4. St. Pius X (16-7). Don't look now, but guess who's back?? Yes, those pesky Sartans, the three-time AAAA champions, are 14-2 since a 2-5 start. Add to that a convincing 63-47 win over District 6AAAA foe Belen on Tuesday and St. Pius is positioning itself as the team nobody wants to face in state. Much ofthat is a credit to head coach Damian Segura, but the Sartans have found talent to replenish their winning tradition.
5. Artesia (17-7). Sorry, Bulldogs. You may have beaten St. Pius - and Hobbs - but you're also only 5-7 since a 12-0 start. Tuesday's loss to Roswell was another blow to a team many thought might be a state title contender. Artesia gets a second chance at Roswell in the regular season closer at home, and a win there could restore some luster to its resume.
Let's stop here for a moment to bring forth a sticky situation. Albuquerque Academy, which was 8-11 heading into District 5AAAA play, had to forfeit all of its wins for using a player who hadn't been declared eligible yet. A paperwork error slowed down the process, but the player suited up as an eligible player for this duration. Due to that, the Chargers are now 3-19 - 3-0 in district - but that could muddy the selection process. How the NMAA handles it will be determined come March 1, but I will try to do my best to interpret its intention.
The only case of precedence in the recent annals of the NMAA came in 2005, when Rio Rancho lost 17 wins because a transfer student was not eligible. Rio Rancho ended up winning its district title and wound up as the top seed in the tourney despite a 5-19 record. If we were to use that as a guideline, then Academy would be treated as if it hadn't lost those games instead of a 3-19 team.
For the sake of argument, I will penalize the Chargers for the infraction by seeding them a couple of spots lower than they should be.
But onward ...
6. Los Alamos (16-7). That win over the Sundevils strengthened the Hilltoppers' resume. Then they weakened it by losing to Capital. Los Alamos needs to avoid any more slip-ups - namely, against Bernalillo on Friday and then at Capital on Feb. 21. A win over Española puts the Hilltoppers into Top-4 consideration, as well as gives them the upper hand in securing a stop seed for the 2AAAA tournament. Just don't slip up ...
7. Belen (13-9). Disclaimer: Academy this would have been your spot. Now, it belongs to the Eagles. Their most impressive victory is over Grants, and that is crucial, because it was a 6AAAA win and puts them ahead of the Pirates. Hence, a seven seed. Enjoy. For now.
8. Bernalillo (14-9). Welcome to the upper half of the AAAA bracket, Spartans. Bernalillo has turned around an uneven 6-7 start and is 8-2 since then. More important, the Spartans beat Capital twice and have the inside track to a No. 3 seed in the 2AAAA tournament. All they need is a win over Taos to solidify that spot. Of course, there are games against Los Alamos and Española remaining, and wins there would mean ... Bernalillo is the top seed? Yes!
9. Albuquerque Academy (3-19). The Chargers are in no danger of flubbing a District 4AAAA title - Del Norte, Moriarty and Valencia are a combined 11-45 - but the forfeits mean contending for a possible top five-seed to merely hoping to get in the top eight. But the Chargers will be a handful no matter where they end up seeding-wise. This seemed to be the appropriate place for them, however.
10. Farmington (9-12). Sorry, Belen. Looks like you'll be on the road for this first round game, for now. The Scorpions are another team playing their best ball at the right time, but ... where's the signature win? That win over Sandia Prep is nice. That loss to Del Norte? Not.
11. Grants (16-6). Almost beating St. Pius (54-50 last week) and Belen (58-50 on Tuesday) means the Pirates are almost a good team. You can quibble that their win over Farmington in November should put them over the Scorpions, but Grants should have more to show for its resume. It doesn't.
12. Capital (13-11). A week ago, the Jaguars had visions of getting back into the district race. Now, they are hoping Taos doesn't catch them on a bad day. Which have been increasing as of late. Since that 46-44 win over St. Pius on Jan. 17, Capital is 1-4. Too bad all of them were 2AAAA games.
13. Silver (11-11). This is what a win over Roswell will get you: a spot ahead of Shiprock. That is the basis for the Colts getting a 13 right now. But there are four key District 3AAAA games ahead - including a pair with Deming. So the chance to move up is there.
14. Piedra Vista (8-14). Did I forget to mention that the Panthers are ahead of the Cheiftains, too? It's for one reason: Piedra Vista 38, Shiprock 37. Otherwise ... Yikes!.
15. Shiprock (12-8). Did I also forget to mention District 1AAAA is the worst district in the state? It is.
16. Goddard (10-13). This was a hard one. Do you pick the third-best team in one district, or go with the runner-up of an otherwise pathetic district? It came down to the Rockets and Del Norte. How did I decide?
Goddard 68, Los Alamos 65, Jan. 2
Del Norte 59, Belen 49, Nov. 25.
Six beats seven.
Ouch.
And so close, Knights.
1. Española Valley (20-4). The Sundevils have been the premier team in AAAA since the start of this season over the past two years for that matter. But the margin from first to second is not as great as it was last year. The Sundevils have two challenging District 2AAAA games to close out the regular season. Feb. 18 is a rematch against Los Alamos. This will be for the district title. A Hilltoppers win could knock the Sundevils from the top spot in the district and the seedings. If Española passes that test, it will have to best the newest challenger in the district - Bernalillo. Much work is left to be done, but the Sundevils control their destiny.
2. Roswell (17-5). The Coyotes have fared well against the better AAAA teams this year. They have wins over Belen, Capital and Artesia and were within 53-45 of the Sundevils in December. There are some troubling losses (to Portales two weeks ago and to Silver on Jan. 17), but Roswell can jump to the top spot if Española falters. And if they don't.
3. Deming (16-6). The Wildcats were Mildcats for the first 11 games of the season (5-6), but since then, they have won 11 straight games. To be fair, some of the losses were to good AAAAA teams (Gallup, Las Cruces and Alamogordo). Deming also beat Artesia during its current streak. If it can navigate past Silver twice in the last 10 days of the season, Deming could make a jump to the top seed provided the breaks go their way.
4. St. Pius X (16-7). Don't look now, but guess who's back?? Yes, those pesky Sartans, the three-time AAAA champions, are 14-2 since a 2-5 start. Add to that a convincing 63-47 win over District 6AAAA foe Belen on Tuesday and St. Pius is positioning itself as the team nobody wants to face in state. Much ofthat is a credit to head coach Damian Segura, but the Sartans have found talent to replenish their winning tradition.
5. Artesia (17-7). Sorry, Bulldogs. You may have beaten St. Pius - and Hobbs - but you're also only 5-7 since a 12-0 start. Tuesday's loss to Roswell was another blow to a team many thought might be a state title contender. Artesia gets a second chance at Roswell in the regular season closer at home, and a win there could restore some luster to its resume.
Let's stop here for a moment to bring forth a sticky situation. Albuquerque Academy, which was 8-11 heading into District 5AAAA play, had to forfeit all of its wins for using a player who hadn't been declared eligible yet. A paperwork error slowed down the process, but the player suited up as an eligible player for this duration. Due to that, the Chargers are now 3-19 - 3-0 in district - but that could muddy the selection process. How the NMAA handles it will be determined come March 1, but I will try to do my best to interpret its intention.
The only case of precedence in the recent annals of the NMAA came in 2005, when Rio Rancho lost 17 wins because a transfer student was not eligible. Rio Rancho ended up winning its district title and wound up as the top seed in the tourney despite a 5-19 record. If we were to use that as a guideline, then Academy would be treated as if it hadn't lost those games instead of a 3-19 team.
For the sake of argument, I will penalize the Chargers for the infraction by seeding them a couple of spots lower than they should be.
But onward ...
6. Los Alamos (16-7). That win over the Sundevils strengthened the Hilltoppers' resume. Then they weakened it by losing to Capital. Los Alamos needs to avoid any more slip-ups - namely, against Bernalillo on Friday and then at Capital on Feb. 21. A win over Española puts the Hilltoppers into Top-4 consideration, as well as gives them the upper hand in securing a stop seed for the 2AAAA tournament. Just don't slip up ...
7. Belen (13-9). Disclaimer: Academy this would have been your spot. Now, it belongs to the Eagles. Their most impressive victory is over Grants, and that is crucial, because it was a 6AAAA win and puts them ahead of the Pirates. Hence, a seven seed. Enjoy. For now.
8. Bernalillo (14-9). Welcome to the upper half of the AAAA bracket, Spartans. Bernalillo has turned around an uneven 6-7 start and is 8-2 since then. More important, the Spartans beat Capital twice and have the inside track to a No. 3 seed in the 2AAAA tournament. All they need is a win over Taos to solidify that spot. Of course, there are games against Los Alamos and Española remaining, and wins there would mean ... Bernalillo is the top seed? Yes!
9. Albuquerque Academy (3-19). The Chargers are in no danger of flubbing a District 4AAAA title - Del Norte, Moriarty and Valencia are a combined 11-45 - but the forfeits mean contending for a possible top five-seed to merely hoping to get in the top eight. But the Chargers will be a handful no matter where they end up seeding-wise. This seemed to be the appropriate place for them, however.
10. Farmington (9-12). Sorry, Belen. Looks like you'll be on the road for this first round game, for now. The Scorpions are another team playing their best ball at the right time, but ... where's the signature win? That win over Sandia Prep is nice. That loss to Del Norte? Not.
11. Grants (16-6). Almost beating St. Pius (54-50 last week) and Belen (58-50 on Tuesday) means the Pirates are almost a good team. You can quibble that their win over Farmington in November should put them over the Scorpions, but Grants should have more to show for its resume. It doesn't.
12. Capital (13-11). A week ago, the Jaguars had visions of getting back into the district race. Now, they are hoping Taos doesn't catch them on a bad day. Which have been increasing as of late. Since that 46-44 win over St. Pius on Jan. 17, Capital is 1-4. Too bad all of them were 2AAAA games.
13. Silver (11-11). This is what a win over Roswell will get you: a spot ahead of Shiprock. That is the basis for the Colts getting a 13 right now. But there are four key District 3AAAA games ahead - including a pair with Deming. So the chance to move up is there.
14. Piedra Vista (8-14). Did I forget to mention that the Panthers are ahead of the Cheiftains, too? It's for one reason: Piedra Vista 38, Shiprock 37. Otherwise ... Yikes!.
15. Shiprock (12-8). Did I also forget to mention District 1AAAA is the worst district in the state? It is.
16. Goddard (10-13). This was a hard one. Do you pick the third-best team in one district, or go with the runner-up of an otherwise pathetic district? It came down to the Rockets and Del Norte. How did I decide?
Goddard 68, Los Alamos 65, Jan. 2
Del Norte 59, Belen 49, Nov. 25.
Six beats seven.
Ouch.
And so close, Knights.
Feb 10, 2009
Projections, projections
With the district season for all basketball teams heading into the final half of their run, I figured it was time to handicap the boys seedings for the upcoming state tournaments.After all, what fun is it to simply speculate in the office when it can be done on the Web? Let's start in AAAAA because it takes some time to research all the teams in one class. Except for Albuquerque High, because 4-17 just doesn't cut it. So here it goes:
Class AAAAA
1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (21-2). The Monarchs two losses are to the No. 6 (Valley) and No. 8 (Clovis) ranked teams in AAAAA by the New Mexico High School Coaches Association, but that is cushioned by their utter dominance over No. 3 Highland,which they have beaten three times already. Manzano is also the second-hottest team in AAAAA, with an 11-game winning streak.
2. Hobbs (20-4). The Eagles laid waste to Clovis - a team that was considered a state title contender until the last three weeks - last week and have positioned themselves as the second best team in the state. It owns a win over Española Valley, which trumps ....
3. Gallup (17-3). The Bengals are on a 14-game streak and have beaten Clovis and Rio Rancho (likely the No. 2 team in Gallup's District 1AAAAA) twice. Their strength of schedule is not as good as Manzano's or Hobbs but they are playing their best ball right now.
4. Las Cruces (18-4). This is where it gets tricky. Highland has lost three straight games. La Cueva dropped two in a row. Valley could make an argument, but that 17-point loss at Las Cueva hurts. So, here are the Bulldawgs, winners of eight straight and running away with 3AAAAA at 5-0.
5. La Cueva (16-6). The Bears missed a chance to move up by losing so badly to Manzano. That followed a loss to Valley in which they had to rally from a 19-point deficit to force overtime. If they can run through 2AAAAA and beat Albuquerque Academy, La Cueva could move up if Gallup or Las Cruces slip.
6. Valley (17-5). The Vikings have rebounded from an 85-69 drubbing to La Cueva on Jan. 20, but ... there's that unpleasant loss to Los Lunas, which is toiling at the bottom of 5AAAAA. To impress the committee. Valley needs to run the table and beat La Cueva again - and likely in a playoff game to determine the top seed. But beware of a Feb. 17 meeting with Santa Fe High ...
7. Eldorado (16-6). You can make an argument for Alamogordo here, but where is the Tigers' signature win? They did beat Eldorado, but the Eagles have wins over Highland, Valley and las Cruces. They also are second in 5AAAAA at 3-1. Enough said.
8. Alamogordo (16-6). The Tigers are here because Highland is FOURTH in its district and the Wildcats of Clovis have dropped like a rock. All they need to do is stay the course and they might jump to a 6.
9. Clovis (13-9). What happened? The Wildcats were riding high after beating Manzano just a month ago, but since then? They are 3-5, including a humbling loss to Hobbs sans their head coach, J.D. Isler. Sure, Clovis has played a tough schedule, but this slump is troubling.
10. Rio Rancho (12-10). The Rams lack a signature win, although that victory over Los Alamos isn't too shabby. It's been a year of almost for Rio Rancho: Almost a win over Hobbs (61-60), Clovis (76-70) and Gallup (61-58 and 75-67 in 1AAAAA play).
11. Rio Grande (15-7). You keep waiting for Highland to pop up, but why hasn't it? Well, the Ravens (3-2) are ahead of the Hornets (1-4) in 5AAAAA. This just might be the toughest district in the state this year, and the Ravens have been tough when it counts the most. They are 4-0 in games decided by four points or less, including a 57-56 win over ...
12. Highland (17-5). Poor Chad Adams. he tweaks his ankle and the Hornets fall apart. Thank Yahweh for Los Lunas, or else Highland would have a four-game losing streak and occupy last in District 5AAAAA. Instead, it's just four of five. But the injury to Adams underscores his value. And perhaps the fragile nature of his team's psyche.
13. Carlsbad (12-11). Nothing noteworthy, other than two wins over Artesia, which should be No. 2 or 3 in AAAA. Wins over AAA schools (Portales? Lovington?) do not look good for a AAAAA school.
14. Las Cruces Oñate (13-10). Solid team with close losses to Highland (56-47), Cruces (63-57) and Rio Rancho (55-45) and is 3-2 in 3AAAAA. Alamogordo has the trump card with a win over the Knights.
15. Santa Fe High (10-13). Finish third in 2AAAAA, and punch your ticket to the postseason, Demons. A win over Valley or La Cueva will solidify it. Still, you lost to Albuquerque High!! Yuck!
16. Gadsden (11-10). The Panthers are in by virtue of being the only other AAAAA school with a winning record. Sorry, West Mesa ,Los Lunas and Cibola. Better luck next year.
Class AAAAA
1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (21-2). The Monarchs two losses are to the No. 6 (Valley) and No. 8 (Clovis) ranked teams in AAAAA by the New Mexico High School Coaches Association, but that is cushioned by their utter dominance over No. 3 Highland,which they have beaten three times already. Manzano is also the second-hottest team in AAAAA, with an 11-game winning streak.
2. Hobbs (20-4). The Eagles laid waste to Clovis - a team that was considered a state title contender until the last three weeks - last week and have positioned themselves as the second best team in the state. It owns a win over Española Valley, which trumps ....
3. Gallup (17-3). The Bengals are on a 14-game streak and have beaten Clovis and Rio Rancho (likely the No. 2 team in Gallup's District 1AAAAA) twice. Their strength of schedule is not as good as Manzano's or Hobbs but they are playing their best ball right now.
4. Las Cruces (18-4). This is where it gets tricky. Highland has lost three straight games. La Cueva dropped two in a row. Valley could make an argument, but that 17-point loss at Las Cueva hurts. So, here are the Bulldawgs, winners of eight straight and running away with 3AAAAA at 5-0.
5. La Cueva (16-6). The Bears missed a chance to move up by losing so badly to Manzano. That followed a loss to Valley in which they had to rally from a 19-point deficit to force overtime. If they can run through 2AAAAA and beat Albuquerque Academy, La Cueva could move up if Gallup or Las Cruces slip.
6. Valley (17-5). The Vikings have rebounded from an 85-69 drubbing to La Cueva on Jan. 20, but ... there's that unpleasant loss to Los Lunas, which is toiling at the bottom of 5AAAAA. To impress the committee. Valley needs to run the table and beat La Cueva again - and likely in a playoff game to determine the top seed. But beware of a Feb. 17 meeting with Santa Fe High ...
7. Eldorado (16-6). You can make an argument for Alamogordo here, but where is the Tigers' signature win? They did beat Eldorado, but the Eagles have wins over Highland, Valley and las Cruces. They also are second in 5AAAAA at 3-1. Enough said.
8. Alamogordo (16-6). The Tigers are here because Highland is FOURTH in its district and the Wildcats of Clovis have dropped like a rock. All they need to do is stay the course and they might jump to a 6.
9. Clovis (13-9). What happened? The Wildcats were riding high after beating Manzano just a month ago, but since then? They are 3-5, including a humbling loss to Hobbs sans their head coach, J.D. Isler. Sure, Clovis has played a tough schedule, but this slump is troubling.
10. Rio Rancho (12-10). The Rams lack a signature win, although that victory over Los Alamos isn't too shabby. It's been a year of almost for Rio Rancho: Almost a win over Hobbs (61-60), Clovis (76-70) and Gallup (61-58 and 75-67 in 1AAAAA play).
11. Rio Grande (15-7). You keep waiting for Highland to pop up, but why hasn't it? Well, the Ravens (3-2) are ahead of the Hornets (1-4) in 5AAAAA. This just might be the toughest district in the state this year, and the Ravens have been tough when it counts the most. They are 4-0 in games decided by four points or less, including a 57-56 win over ...
12. Highland (17-5). Poor Chad Adams. he tweaks his ankle and the Hornets fall apart. Thank Yahweh for Los Lunas, or else Highland would have a four-game losing streak and occupy last in District 5AAAAA. Instead, it's just four of five. But the injury to Adams underscores his value. And perhaps the fragile nature of his team's psyche.
13. Carlsbad (12-11). Nothing noteworthy, other than two wins over Artesia, which should be No. 2 or 3 in AAAA. Wins over AAA schools (Portales? Lovington?) do not look good for a AAAAA school.
14. Las Cruces Oñate (13-10). Solid team with close losses to Highland (56-47), Cruces (63-57) and Rio Rancho (55-45) and is 3-2 in 3AAAAA. Alamogordo has the trump card with a win over the Knights.
15. Santa Fe High (10-13). Finish third in 2AAAAA, and punch your ticket to the postseason, Demons. A win over Valley or La Cueva will solidify it. Still, you lost to Albuquerque High!! Yuck!
16. Gadsden (11-10). The Panthers are in by virtue of being the only other AAAAA school with a winning record. Sorry, West Mesa ,Los Lunas and Cibola. Better luck next year.
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