It's been a long-standing tradition on this blog, and I am to keep it going. So for the first time this year, I present my first crystal-ball gaze into the state basketball tournament.
Today, we'll look at the AAAA boys.
The rest can wait a day or two.
On with the show.
Class AAAA
1. Roswell (16-0). Way back in the Nov. 23 poll, when the Coyotes were relegated to No. 7 in the inaugural poll, someone had the foresight to vote them No. 1. Nine weeks later, whoever that that coach is a damn genius. They beat the then-No. 1 in Roswell Goddard in the Poe Corn title game, they beat Grants and Los Lunas. Then the Jan. 17 win over Hobbs cemented it.
2. Roswell Goddard (18-1). The Rockets' only blemish is to their city rivals, and they came into the season as the team to beat. Goddard has some good wins (over AA stalwart Mesilla Valley and another over Española Valley - though it looks worse as the Sundevils continue to lose). And 16-1 is still 16-1.
3. Albuquerque St. Pius X (14-4). The Sartans are rolling, and that's not a good sign for the rest of the state. They are on a nine-game streak after losing to Capital in the opening round of the Stu Clark Tournament. Their other losses are to good teams (Cibola, Sandia Prep and Grants). It helps that a certain team has a glaring splotch on its resume.
4. Capital (14-4). You see the good - wins over St' Pius, Bernalillo, Grants and Deming - and you want to seed the Jaguars higher. But one blemish shouts at you like a pimple on face.
Del Norte 61, Capital 55.
That puts you at four. Beat St. Pius again next week and we'll talk.
5. Grants (13-5). Sometimes, the Pirates look so good (beating St. Pius and Piedra Vista, a pair of one-point losses to Roswell, a four-point loss to Capital). And then they go and lose to Gallup and Sandia Prep at Gallup's tournament two weeks ago. If they can go on a run, they might regain lost ground.
6. Bernalillo (13-6). What we said about Grants. Looks good at times (an overtime loss to Capital, wins over Valencia, Taos and Las Vegas Robertson), but ... You lost to BELEN. In this Los Lunas grad's book, it's a sin you can't omit.
Now here's where things get a little tricky. The road to state is traffic-jammed with schools barely poking their heads at or above the .500 mark. So there will be a lot of fluidity to these seeds as the season goes along. Right now, though, it's a mess.
7. Gallup (8-8). The Bengals have a win over Grant on which to hang their hat. They can also boast wins over Valencia and two over Kirtland Central. Gallup's schedule also has a hint of toughness with games against Hope Christian (perhaps the best in the state), two losses to St. Pius, another to Rio Rancho. If the Bengals can grab second in 6AAAA, they can imagine a home game.
8. Deming (9-7). Much will hinge on what happens in the Wildcats' matchups against Santa Teresa, but they are the leader in the clubhouse, so to speak. They have no distingushing wins (but neither do the Desert Warriors), but a win over Los Lunas looks promising but a 2-1 mark against a nondescript Artesia team is a little bothersome.
9. Kirtland Central (10-9). Again, nothing exciting about the Broncos' resume, but beating a very good AAA Shiprock counts for something. Heck, Piedra Vista hasn't done that. But at least the Panthers beat Los Alamos, while Kirtland can't. Therefore, it's a wash.
10. Los Lunas (9-7). The Tigers are 9-4 after an 0-3 start, but those games were against AAAAA Eldorado and Manzano and then a hiccup against Atrisco Heritage. Los Lunas has good wins against Piedra Vista and Bernalillo, but that is offset with two losses to Atrisco and a loss to Deming.
11. Farmington (9-9). The Scorpions have a win over Kirtland Central and Friday's win over Piedra Vista bolted them up the ladder. They have played a strong nondistrict schedule, with two losses to Grants and St. Pius, another to the Broncos and another to Gallup.
12. Atrisco Heritage (7-9). The record doesn't look great, but they did lose twice to Albuquerque High and to Sandia Prep (the third best team in AAA). Two wins over Los Lunas look good as well and that 48-44 loss to St. Pius bodes well for 5AAAA play.
13. Santa Teresa (10-9). Yeah, the record is good, where's the beef? Their signature wins: Against a 7-8 Carlsbad? A 6-12 Rio Rancho Cleveland? A 7-12 Alamogordo? A 7-10 Artesia?
14. Valencia (8-8). Again, nothing distinguishing about the Jaguars. But they have seven wins over AAAA schools. They beat Santa Fe High twice, but don't forget, the Demons are 4-12.
15. Piedra Vista (8-11). You can't ignore those six victories that turned into forfeits for using an ineligible player. But the Panthers' most impressive win is two against 7-12 Los Alamos (which is just on the outside looking in). Then they lose to Farmington. At least they have that win over ...
16. Los Alamos (7-12). It came down to the Hilltoppers and the 10-7 Bloomfield Bobcats. It came down to this: Los Alamos beat Kirtland Central and a 7-10 Artesia team. Bloomfield has four wins over schools Class AA and lower. Granted, they all came in tournaments, but two were in the Bobcats' own invite. You can't stack the deck and figure no one will notice. I did. The NMAA better.
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