No surprises at the top, but the rest is a jumbled mess. Why can't teams just win when they're supposed to? (I'm looking at you, Horsemen Nation). Makes seeding to much easier that way. Oh well, I'll give it a shot, even though it's likely to change by the time i end this posting. At least I was right when I wrote it.
1. Hope Christian (19-3). Go ahead, St. Michael's. Redeem yourselves Monday. Otherwise, the Huskies will have clear sailing to a three-peat.
2. Taos (15-6). Ah, Wingate, you were so close to this spot. Then the Bears lost to Shiprock last night. Meanwhile, the Tigers survived a scare at West Las Vegas, but their win over St. Michael's is the trump card. Oh, and a win over Socorro. Oh, and a win over Portales. Pretty impressive for a first-year AAA school.
3. St. Michael's (14-7). The Horsemen get this spot because it beat Sandia Prep, and the Sundevils have to stay behind them in accordance to NMAA bylaws. But St. Michael's has not looked good in losing its last two games. This weekend could make or break a good seed.
4. Sandia Prep (13-6). Tonight's the night for the Sundevils to take back what was lost at St. Michael's. A win and they jump ahead of the Horsemen. A loss? Well, watch who's No. 5 slide on by ...
5. Wingate (16-2). You lose to Shiprock, and you deserve to drop further. At least the Bears can boast about a split with the Chieftains. But you lost to 10-13 Shiprock!!! For shame.
6. Socorro (14-8). The Warriors are 5-0 in 3AAA play, but that 3-4 mark against the rest of AAA hurts. They can hope the rest of 5AAA (asise from Hope Christian) continues to beat each other up. Or that someone else comes along to tug on Wingate's cape.
7. Portales (13-7). The Rams opened 4AAA with a big win over Lovington, but tonight's matchup against Ruidoso is equally as crucial. This is a team that's gathering momentum and could move up.
8. Las Vegas Robertson (13-6). A lot is riding on Monday's matchup against Taos. The 2AAA lead, for sure. But the Cardinals could really cause a jumbled mess in the seedings with a win. They are on a six-game winning streak, which is the perfect time to do it.
9. Silver (12-11). The Colts are 6-1 in 3AAA, with only a loss to Socorro. This is a team that is turning it around at the right time, and a win over the Warriors could do even more for them.
10. Pojoaque Valley (13-11). Yay! The Horsemen Curse is broken! Booo!!! You lost to the Braves and Hope the next two games!
11. Shiprock (10-13). Look what one win can do to a program! The Chieftains are 5-1 in AAA, but the win over Wingate was the most impressive one. Trumps what the rest of the rest have done.
12. SFIS (9-11). The wheels have fallen off the Braves. They lost seven in a row before beating the Elks. Then they lost to the Horsemen. SFIS isn't out of the tournament, but they are falling further and further down the ladder.
13. Lovington (12-11). This is why the Wildcats need to play more AAA teams. A 1-1 mark - all in 4AAA - doesn't cut. Still, SFIS' losses are their gains.
14. Ruidoso (10-12). The Warriors' district struggles leave them 0-2 and dead last. At least they are ahead of the back pack.
15. Zuni (8-10). The Thunderbirds have three wins against AAA schools, which is enough to trump ...
16. West Las Vegas (5-14). The Dons almost secured their way into the dance with a win over Taos. They overall resume is better than 9-14 Hot Springs, but the Tigers' record looks better. Doesn't mean they are the better team. Chances are, they get in before West does.
Feb 11, 2011
Feb 10, 2011
Latest projections .... AAAA first
It's getting hard to stay true to my No. 1 selection so far in my projections. Gallup and Española are very similar in almost every way, but that season-opening game in The Pit is becoming a larger factor as the season comes to a close. Do I keep Gallup ranked high for its continued excellence? Or have the Sundevils done enough to sway me that they are the new No. 1? After watching them dismantle Capital again ... Well, I knew it would come to something like this.
1. Española (16-7). Hey, the Sundevils still have scoreboard on the Bengals. That won't change unless someone loses unexpectedly. And if there's a team to do it, the Demons of Santa Fe High are the ones. You've earned this spot, Española. For now.
2. Gallup (16-6). The Bengals have won seven in a row - just like the Sundevils - and they have an impressive 71-60 District 6AAAA win over Grants on the road. It would be easier to call the top two seeds 1 and 1A, but for now, we'll settle for No. 2
3. Roswell (19-3). The Coyotes bested their toughest 4AAAA foe in Roswell Goddard, and followed that with a tough road win at Artesia. This is another spot I am struggling with. Coming up through the pack is Santa Teresa, and it has a win over these Coyotes. Their hold is precarious, and a loss - Hello, Clovis? - could tip the scales.
4. Santa Teresa (14-8). This is the second-hottest hottest team in AAAA (nine in a row), and there doesn't appear to be a team to stand in the Desert Warriors' way in 3AAAA. They are licking their chops at a chance to move up to No. 3.
5. Piedra Vista (20-2). It's hard to penalize the hottest team in the class (11 in a row), but this is where quality trumps quantity. And with struggles to beat Farmington and Bloomfield in 1AAAA play, the Panthers look good on paper, but their poor strength of schedule hurts them this time of year.
6. Albuquerque St. Pius X (12-8). Speaking of streaking teams, the Sartans are on an eight-game roll. Weather, though, cost them a crucial game that could have determined this spot head-to-head with Capital. Alas, the game is gone, but the Sartans benefit from the Jaguars' inability to beat Espanola Valley.
7. Grants (15-3). The Pirates also jump ahead of the Jaguars for one reason: Grants is 6-2 since the turn of the calendar, while Capital is 4-5. The Jaguars have a win over Grants, but that is weighed down by a loss to Albuquerque Academy and a pair to Española.
8. Capital (12-7). If a team needs to go on a run, it's the Jaguars. They keep losing spots as they continue their inconsistent play. Two intracity (and 2AAAA) games with Santa Fe High loom, and the Demons are hungry for a win.
9. Aztec (13-6). The Tigers are 3-1 in 1AAAA, but did struggle against Bloomfield and Farmington (The Scorpions seem to be the team that plays everyone tough, but can't win a big game. Like Santa Fe High). They can't afford slip-ups against the rest of the district outside of Piedra Vista, or else ...
10. Roswell Goddard (14-9). Again, more tough decisions. The Rockets lost to Roswell, but losses to Santa Teresa and Clovis bode well for them. As long as they take care of Artesia, they should move up to a nine or maybe an eight by Feb. 27.
11. Artesia (12-11). The Bulldogs are 0-2 in 4AAAA, but look at their recent losses: Santa Teresa, Clovis, Hobbs, Roswell and Goddard. Hard to penalize a team for good losses (all but the Wildcats and Eagles beat Artesia by more than seven points).
12. Albuquerque Del Norte (8-11). The Knights are 3-1 in 5AAAA with one more shot at beating the Sartans. If they can go at least 3-1 and finish 6-2 in the district, they'll stay right here.
13. Valencia (10-11). OK, Jaguars. Apologies here for misjudging your AAAA record. After a 3-2 start in 6AAAA got them to third, they are now 6-7 against AAAA competition. They can possibly move up with a win over Grants or Gallup and a split with Los Lunas. Otherwise, they are battling my Tigers for this spot.
14. Los Lunas (9-11). The Tigers are ready to break through that glass ceiling. But you have to win to make that happen. Tonight's home game against Gallup can go a long way toward solidifying a spot in the tournament.
15. Santa Fe High (8-12). Oh happy day for the city's signature public school! The Demons have responded in a big way (and they can thank teams like Los Alamos and Chaparral for knocking out Deming and Bernalillo off the list). A win over Capital or Espanola gets them in. A loss to Bernalillo ... Well, it will be district tournament or bust then.
16. Kirtland Central (10-10). Again, another team that benefits from the failures of Deming, Bernalillo ... Oh, and Albuquerque Academy. The Broncos have rebounded enough to get back in the think of things. But a bad loss will have them in the garbage pail with the other outsiders trying to claw their way out.
O-L-I (Outsiders Looking In)
Deming (10-13). Look what an 0-2 3AAAA start does to you. The Wildcats need help to get back in.
Albuquerque Academy (6-14). You can play as tough a schedule as you want, but you have to produce wins. A 4-3 AAAA mark with a win over Capital looks good, but 2-11 against the rest? Yikes. Beat Del Norte or St. Pius, then we'll talk.
Bernalillo (10-11). You have to wonder what fear the Spartans would strike if injuries didn't get them. And being swept by Los Alamos.
Los Alamos (6-17). This is the wildest of all wild cards, but the Hilltoppers are scaring 2AAAA coaches (well, maybe earning a great deal of respect). If they had beaten Santa Fe High on Tuesday, the Demons would be the desperate ones here. Alas, it is the Hilltoppers.
1. Española (16-7). Hey, the Sundevils still have scoreboard on the Bengals. That won't change unless someone loses unexpectedly. And if there's a team to do it, the Demons of Santa Fe High are the ones. You've earned this spot, Española. For now.
2. Gallup (16-6). The Bengals have won seven in a row - just like the Sundevils - and they have an impressive 71-60 District 6AAAA win over Grants on the road. It would be easier to call the top two seeds 1 and 1A, but for now, we'll settle for No. 2
3. Roswell (19-3). The Coyotes bested their toughest 4AAAA foe in Roswell Goddard, and followed that with a tough road win at Artesia. This is another spot I am struggling with. Coming up through the pack is Santa Teresa, and it has a win over these Coyotes. Their hold is precarious, and a loss - Hello, Clovis? - could tip the scales.
4. Santa Teresa (14-8). This is the second-hottest hottest team in AAAA (nine in a row), and there doesn't appear to be a team to stand in the Desert Warriors' way in 3AAAA. They are licking their chops at a chance to move up to No. 3.
5. Piedra Vista (20-2). It's hard to penalize the hottest team in the class (11 in a row), but this is where quality trumps quantity. And with struggles to beat Farmington and Bloomfield in 1AAAA play, the Panthers look good on paper, but their poor strength of schedule hurts them this time of year.
6. Albuquerque St. Pius X (12-8). Speaking of streaking teams, the Sartans are on an eight-game roll. Weather, though, cost them a crucial game that could have determined this spot head-to-head with Capital. Alas, the game is gone, but the Sartans benefit from the Jaguars' inability to beat Espanola Valley.
7. Grants (15-3). The Pirates also jump ahead of the Jaguars for one reason: Grants is 6-2 since the turn of the calendar, while Capital is 4-5. The Jaguars have a win over Grants, but that is weighed down by a loss to Albuquerque Academy and a pair to Española.
8. Capital (12-7). If a team needs to go on a run, it's the Jaguars. They keep losing spots as they continue their inconsistent play. Two intracity (and 2AAAA) games with Santa Fe High loom, and the Demons are hungry for a win.
9. Aztec (13-6). The Tigers are 3-1 in 1AAAA, but did struggle against Bloomfield and Farmington (The Scorpions seem to be the team that plays everyone tough, but can't win a big game. Like Santa Fe High). They can't afford slip-ups against the rest of the district outside of Piedra Vista, or else ...
10. Roswell Goddard (14-9). Again, more tough decisions. The Rockets lost to Roswell, but losses to Santa Teresa and Clovis bode well for them. As long as they take care of Artesia, they should move up to a nine or maybe an eight by Feb. 27.
11. Artesia (12-11). The Bulldogs are 0-2 in 4AAAA, but look at their recent losses: Santa Teresa, Clovis, Hobbs, Roswell and Goddard. Hard to penalize a team for good losses (all but the Wildcats and Eagles beat Artesia by more than seven points).
12. Albuquerque Del Norte (8-11). The Knights are 3-1 in 5AAAA with one more shot at beating the Sartans. If they can go at least 3-1 and finish 6-2 in the district, they'll stay right here.
13. Valencia (10-11). OK, Jaguars. Apologies here for misjudging your AAAA record. After a 3-2 start in 6AAAA got them to third, they are now 6-7 against AAAA competition. They can possibly move up with a win over Grants or Gallup and a split with Los Lunas. Otherwise, they are battling my Tigers for this spot.
14. Los Lunas (9-11). The Tigers are ready to break through that glass ceiling. But you have to win to make that happen. Tonight's home game against Gallup can go a long way toward solidifying a spot in the tournament.
15. Santa Fe High (8-12). Oh happy day for the city's signature public school! The Demons have responded in a big way (and they can thank teams like Los Alamos and Chaparral for knocking out Deming and Bernalillo off the list). A win over Capital or Espanola gets them in. A loss to Bernalillo ... Well, it will be district tournament or bust then.
16. Kirtland Central (10-10). Again, another team that benefits from the failures of Deming, Bernalillo ... Oh, and Albuquerque Academy. The Broncos have rebounded enough to get back in the think of things. But a bad loss will have them in the garbage pail with the other outsiders trying to claw their way out.
O-L-I (Outsiders Looking In)
Deming (10-13). Look what an 0-2 3AAAA start does to you. The Wildcats need help to get back in.
Albuquerque Academy (6-14). You can play as tough a schedule as you want, but you have to produce wins. A 4-3 AAAA mark with a win over Capital looks good, but 2-11 against the rest? Yikes. Beat Del Norte or St. Pius, then we'll talk.
Bernalillo (10-11). You have to wonder what fear the Spartans would strike if injuries didn't get them. And being swept by Los Alamos.
Los Alamos (6-17). This is the wildest of all wild cards, but the Hilltoppers are scaring 2AAAA coaches (well, maybe earning a great deal of respect). If they had beaten Santa Fe High on Tuesday, the Demons would be the desperate ones here. Alas, it is the Hilltoppers.
Feb 8, 2011
Snow update: Everything is a go IF ...
For the city's big schools today.
That means the following games WIL be played today, regardless of the weather:
Boys
Santa Fe High at Los Alamos, 7 p.m.
Capital at Espanola Valley, 7 p.m.
Pojoaque Valley at St. Michael's, 7 p.m.
Girls
Sandia Prep at Santa Fe Indian School, 7 p.m.
However, a few cancellations occured because of the latest snow storm.
They are:
Boys
Las Vegas Robertson at Taos
Girls
Taos at West Las Vegas
Peñasco at Pecos
The Taos-West Las Vegas girls game has been rescheduled for Monday. The other two games have no make-up dates as of 3 p.m.
That means the following games WIL be played today, regardless of the weather:
Boys
Santa Fe High at Los Alamos, 7 p.m.
Capital at Espanola Valley, 7 p.m.
Pojoaque Valley at St. Michael's, 7 p.m.
Girls
Sandia Prep at Santa Fe Indian School, 7 p.m.
However, a few cancellations occured because of the latest snow storm.
They are:
Boys
Las Vegas Robertson at Taos
Girls
Taos at West Las Vegas
Peñasco at Pecos
The Taos-West Las Vegas girls game has been rescheduled for Monday. The other two games have no make-up dates as of 3 p.m.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
