Well, as Selection Sunday is upon us, I would be remiss if I did not get my final projections in for the Class AAAA Tournament.
1. Roswell (22-2). Finished the year with a 13-0 record against AAAA schools, and blew out Artesia by 49 after only beating them by nine last week. The clear No. 1
2. Espanola Valley (24-2). After a sluggish couple of weeks, the Sundevils dominated Los Alamos to win the District 2AAAA Tournament title. They were 9-0 in AAAA, but all nine were against the district. That hurt, even though Espanola played perhaps the toughest schedule in the state.
3. Albuquerque Academy (20-7). The Chargers were 12-0 against AAAA competition and laid waste to Valencia last night (80-42). The sleeper awaits.
4. Santa Teresa (20-7). Yes, the Desert Warriors did not play - or beat - any Top 10 teams (according to the coaches poll) in AAAA. In fact, it also played only its district opponents in the class. But a 7-0 mark will do wonders, considering the week that was for ...
5. Volcano Vista (15-12). Back to back losses (to Grants and then St. Pius for the 6AAAA championship) ruined any chance of the Hawks of getting a top four seed. That, despite wins over Los Alamos, the Sartans and Valencia.
6. Los Alamos (18-9). Los Alamos could have made some noise for a five seed with a win over Espanola, but the Hilltoppers will still get a home game. Wins over Kirtland Central, Grants, Valencia and St. Pius (twice) ensured that.
7. Shiprock (20-8). The District 1AAAA champion lost the tournament final to Kirtland Central, and that opened the door for Los Alamos to take No. 6.
8. Kirtland Central (17-11). It came to who deserved the home game between the Broncos and the Sartans. The Broncos, the 1AAAA tourney champs, beat the Sartans, the 6AAAA tourney champs, in January. There's your deciding factor.
9. St. Pius (13-15). The Sartans finished and incredible 8-3 finish with a win over the Hawks. They once again are the team the rest of the state could fear the most.
10. Grants (17-8). The Pirates' win over Volcano Vista solidified a No. 10 spot even though they were 7-7 down the stretch.
11. Piedra Vista (16-11). The loss to Farmington in the 1AAAA quarterfinals pushed the Panthers to an 11 spot. Amazing that 10 days ago they were looking at a home game and a top 6 seed.
12. Capital (13-12). The Jaguars wanted Santa Teresa or Shiprock for an opponent, but instead they get the Hawks. But might be a blessing in disguise with the way Volcano Vista is playing.
13. Belen (15-11). The freefall stops here because of wins over Peidra Vista, Artesia and Valencia.
14. Artesia (13-14). The Bulldogs weren't spectacular this season, nor were they terrible. Second place gets them here.
15. Valencia (11-17). The big win for the Jaguars actually came against a team its battling for a spot in the tournament - Aztec. That one win was enough to get them into the tournament, along with a runner-up finish in 5AAAA.
16. Chaparral (11-17). It came down to AAAA wins, and Chaparral owned the slimmest of margins (4-3). And since Aztex didn't beat a AAAA team with more than six wins (Farmington, which needed two wins in the 1AAAA tournament to get there), the Lobos get their first bid.
Feb 27, 2010
AAAAA boys, one more time.
Well, as the final day of the district season comes to an end, it's high time to give everyone my projections for tomorrow's seedings.
Class AAAAA
1. Las Cruces Mayfield (22-4). The reason? Mayfield's only losses to state teams were to a then-undefeated Hobbs and AAAA Espanola Valley. Otherwise, the Trojans were 14-1 against AAAAA schools with a win over Highland. A 15-game winning streak cinches it in my mind.
2. Eldorado (23-4). The Eagles' sterling mark took a hit with the loss to Rio Grande last week. Which means it needs a little help to get back to where it was. A 15-2 mark against AAAAA competition still looks good, just not as good as it did a week ago. Beat the Monarchs is priority No. 1.
3. La Cueva (23-5). This is where the advantages of the NMAA's tie-breaker system help. The Bears tied for first in 2AAAAA with Valley, but Valley won the one-game playoff. So Valley's ahead of La Cueva, right? Not so fast, my friends! Because of a provision that allows the seeding committees to seed teams as they see fit when a regular-season tie is involved, the Bears jump ahead of Valley (in my mind). La Cueva has a win over Manzano and another over Valley in the regular season. A second win over the Vikings tonight solidifies No. 3 for the defending AAAAA champions. If not, they drop a spot or maybe two.
4. Manzano (21-7). The Monarchs lost two in a row to Eldorado, which knocks them down a spot. Still, a 16-4 mark vs. AAAAA competition with wins over La Cueva, Eldorado, Highland and Valley make for a strong resume for a top-four seed.
5. Valley (18-9). The Vikings were only 5-6 against non 2AAAAA schools in the class, but one was a win over 1AAAAA champion Gallup. That's enough to get the Vikings ahead of the Bengals.
6. Gallup (17-10). An 8-6 mark against AAAAA teams leaves a lot to be desired from the 1AAAAA champion. There's still a chance for the Bengals to fall a notch if Rio Rancho surprises them tonight.
7. Clovis (13-10). The Wildcats are 7-2 against AAAAA schools, but their biggest win is against a Rams team that is making a run just to get into the tournament. Still, they are the 4AAAAA champions, and that counts for something.
8. Hobbs (20-7). Oh what one loss can do. If the Carlsbad Cavemen don't upset the Eagles, chances are Hobbs is a Top-5 seed. Instead, that loss blemishes a 5-0 mark against AAAAA schools with a win over No. 1 Mayfield, which is its only AAAAA loss.
9. Highland (20-8). The Hornets bounced back from a three-game losing streak nicely with .... a three-game winning streak. A 15-5 AAAAA mark is very good, but Hobbs was just a tad better.
10. Gadsden (17-10). The Panthers never could get on track in 3AAAAA, alternating wins and losses. This is about as good as it gets.
11. Rio Grande (15-13). The win over Eldorado was great, but the Ravens closed with a 4-6 mark overall, including 3-5 in 5AAAAA. The win over Valley helps them get this spot over ...
12. Cibola (13-15). Oh, if only it was the Cougars playing Gallup in the 1AAAAA title game instead of Rio Rancho. If they want to look at the plus side, Cibols did help a district team solidify its spot in the tournament. Otherwise, thanks, missed opportunity.
13. Rio Rancho (14-14). The Rams spell salvation "4-2." That's their record over over the last 16 days to move themselves off the bubble of the state tournament. Now about that bubble ...
14. Carlsbad (12-14). Committee: "Thanks for giving us this interview, Cavemen, but let's stop with the pleasantries and tell us why you deserve to play in our tournament next week?"
Carlsbad: "We beat Hobbs."
Committee: "Uh-huh, we see that. But what else?"
Carlsbad: "We also beat Las Cruces."
Committee: "OK, good enough. Now please enjoy your butt-kicking at La Cueva."
Carlsbad: "Can't be any worse than what they did last week (80-56 on Feb. 20)."
15. Albuquerque High (12-16). Committee: "OK, Bulldogs. It says here you went 6-11 against AAAAA schools. Why should we choose you over, say, 10-17 Las Cruces?"
AHS: "We beat Gallup. We dominated Santa Fe High four times."
Committee: "Beat Gallup, eh? Hmmmm ..."
AHS: "That's a lovely tie. And did you know we REALLY respect officials (See Ron Garcia's comments after beating Santa Fe High on Feb. 5)?"
Committee: "Flattery gets you everywhere this time of year. Welcome to the tournament!"
16. Santa Fe High (13-15). Committee: "Ok, Las Cruces, Oñate and Santa Fe, it's down to you three for the last spot. Tell me what you did to deserve to get in."
Las Cruces: "Well, we beat Los Lunas, Cleveland, Alamgordo and Oñate."
Oñate: "We beat Las Cruces, too. And Cleveland. And Rio Rancho."
Santa Fe: "We beat Gallup. Plus we played Eldorado, Manzano, La Cueva and Valley." (Demons' mind: Don't say anything about how badly they beat you!)
Committee: "Interesting, Demons. How do you feel about officials?"
Santa Fe: (Gulps) "Integrity is their middle name." (Damn, did Albuquerque High talk to these guys?)
Committee: "Well, that's not what we heard, but you're in anyways. We will keep our eyes on you ..."
Class AAAAA
1. Las Cruces Mayfield (22-4). The reason? Mayfield's only losses to state teams were to a then-undefeated Hobbs and AAAA Espanola Valley. Otherwise, the Trojans were 14-1 against AAAAA schools with a win over Highland. A 15-game winning streak cinches it in my mind.
2. Eldorado (23-4). The Eagles' sterling mark took a hit with the loss to Rio Grande last week. Which means it needs a little help to get back to where it was. A 15-2 mark against AAAAA competition still looks good, just not as good as it did a week ago. Beat the Monarchs is priority No. 1.
3. La Cueva (23-5). This is where the advantages of the NMAA's tie-breaker system help. The Bears tied for first in 2AAAAA with Valley, but Valley won the one-game playoff. So Valley's ahead of La Cueva, right? Not so fast, my friends! Because of a provision that allows the seeding committees to seed teams as they see fit when a regular-season tie is involved, the Bears jump ahead of Valley (in my mind). La Cueva has a win over Manzano and another over Valley in the regular season. A second win over the Vikings tonight solidifies No. 3 for the defending AAAAA champions. If not, they drop a spot or maybe two.
4. Manzano (21-7). The Monarchs lost two in a row to Eldorado, which knocks them down a spot. Still, a 16-4 mark vs. AAAAA competition with wins over La Cueva, Eldorado, Highland and Valley make for a strong resume for a top-four seed.
5. Valley (18-9). The Vikings were only 5-6 against non 2AAAAA schools in the class, but one was a win over 1AAAAA champion Gallup. That's enough to get the Vikings ahead of the Bengals.
6. Gallup (17-10). An 8-6 mark against AAAAA teams leaves a lot to be desired from the 1AAAAA champion. There's still a chance for the Bengals to fall a notch if Rio Rancho surprises them tonight.
7. Clovis (13-10). The Wildcats are 7-2 against AAAAA schools, but their biggest win is against a Rams team that is making a run just to get into the tournament. Still, they are the 4AAAAA champions, and that counts for something.
8. Hobbs (20-7). Oh what one loss can do. If the Carlsbad Cavemen don't upset the Eagles, chances are Hobbs is a Top-5 seed. Instead, that loss blemishes a 5-0 mark against AAAAA schools with a win over No. 1 Mayfield, which is its only AAAAA loss.
9. Highland (20-8). The Hornets bounced back from a three-game losing streak nicely with .... a three-game winning streak. A 15-5 AAAAA mark is very good, but Hobbs was just a tad better.
10. Gadsden (17-10). The Panthers never could get on track in 3AAAAA, alternating wins and losses. This is about as good as it gets.
11. Rio Grande (15-13). The win over Eldorado was great, but the Ravens closed with a 4-6 mark overall, including 3-5 in 5AAAAA. The win over Valley helps them get this spot over ...
12. Cibola (13-15). Oh, if only it was the Cougars playing Gallup in the 1AAAAA title game instead of Rio Rancho. If they want to look at the plus side, Cibols did help a district team solidify its spot in the tournament. Otherwise, thanks, missed opportunity.
13. Rio Rancho (14-14). The Rams spell salvation "4-2." That's their record over over the last 16 days to move themselves off the bubble of the state tournament. Now about that bubble ...
14. Carlsbad (12-14). Committee: "Thanks for giving us this interview, Cavemen, but let's stop with the pleasantries and tell us why you deserve to play in our tournament next week?"
Carlsbad: "We beat Hobbs."
Committee: "Uh-huh, we see that. But what else?"
Carlsbad: "We also beat Las Cruces."
Committee: "OK, good enough. Now please enjoy your butt-kicking at La Cueva."
Carlsbad: "Can't be any worse than what they did last week (80-56 on Feb. 20)."
15. Albuquerque High (12-16). Committee: "OK, Bulldogs. It says here you went 6-11 against AAAAA schools. Why should we choose you over, say, 10-17 Las Cruces?"
AHS: "We beat Gallup. We dominated Santa Fe High four times."
Committee: "Beat Gallup, eh? Hmmmm ..."
AHS: "That's a lovely tie. And did you know we REALLY respect officials (See Ron Garcia's comments after beating Santa Fe High on Feb. 5)?"
Committee: "Flattery gets you everywhere this time of year. Welcome to the tournament!"
16. Santa Fe High (13-15). Committee: "Ok, Las Cruces, Oñate and Santa Fe, it's down to you three for the last spot. Tell me what you did to deserve to get in."
Las Cruces: "Well, we beat Los Lunas, Cleveland, Alamgordo and Oñate."
Oñate: "We beat Las Cruces, too. And Cleveland. And Rio Rancho."
Santa Fe: "We beat Gallup. Plus we played Eldorado, Manzano, La Cueva and Valley." (Demons' mind: Don't say anything about how badly they beat you!)
Committee: "Interesting, Demons. How do you feel about officials?"
Santa Fe: (Gulps) "Integrity is their middle name." (Damn, did Albuquerque High talk to these guys?)
Committee: "Well, that's not what we heard, but you're in anyways. We will keep our eyes on you ..."
Feb 26, 2010
And now, for the girls ... (AAAA projections)
I'll skip the AAAAA portion of the bracket because ... Well, the only way Santa Fe High gets to the state tournament is if: 1) the girls discover the game of basketball; and 2) they buy tickets. For anyone who wants to complain, remember this: the Demonettes have won one time in the last 40 games. And no one complained about the lack of coverage of that team this year. Not to mention, we're still waiting for that first call-in from head coach Elmer Chavez. Good luck in AAAA, girls. Suggestion: Get a home-and-home series with Roswell Goddard (0-27).
AAAA
1. Kirtland Central (21-2). Thanks to two District 1AAAA wins over Shiprock, the second-ranked team in AAAA by the NMHSCA poll. The Lady Broncos' two losses came against an Arizona school and AAA Thoreau. Add to that wins over Belen and Los Alamos, and Kirtland Central is 10-0 against AAAA competition. Enough said.
2. Shiprock (20-6). Aside from the losses to the No. 1 seed, the Lady Chieftains have beaten 2AAAA champion Española Valley, Belen and Grants. That's why the Lady Sundevils are ...
3. Española (23-4). The pride of District 2AAAA went 6-1 against AAAA schools outside of the district and is 14-2 overall. The loss to Los Alamos doesn't hurt when considering the Lady Sundevils lost to Shiprock and beat Grants, Moriarty, Piedra Vista and Aztec. A 2-1 mark over the Lady Hilltoppers helps greatly as well.
4. Roswell (16-9). The Lady Coyotes are a perfect 8-0 against AAAA competition, with wins over Los Alamos, Del Norte (the 5AAAA champ), Deming (3AAAA) and Silver. Roswell was one of those rare southern schools that ventured outside of the south to bolster its resume. This is its reward.
5. Los Alamos (19-9). The Lady Hilltoppers played the most AAAA schools of any school, and went 15-5 overall. Among the résumé-boosting victories include Volcano Vista (the 6AAAA champion), Del Norte, and St. Pius X (the 6AAAA runner-up). The win over Española gives Los Alamos bragging rights of going 3-1 against AAAA district champions. Impressive, indeed.
6. Volcano Vista (15-10). Of the Lady Hawks' 10 losses, eight have come against AAAAA teams. They are 10-2 overall in the class, with two wins over the Lady Knights, another over Valencia and a 6AAAA split with St. Pius. That 2-8 start is a thing of the past.
7. Deming (16-9). The Lady Wildcats looked bad when I saw them at the Lady Jaguar Invitational in December, and a 7-8 start didn't look much better. However, Deming is 9-1 since then and the 3AAAA champion. Still, the Lady Wildcats lack a "Look at us" win (only against 5AAAA runner-up Valencia, compared to losses to Roswell and Artesia). Look where they end up.
8. Del Norte (14-12). The Lady Knights went 9-6 against AAAA competition, but their signature win was over the Lady Sartans. They couldn't beat Roswell, Los Alamos and Volcano Vista (twice). The district champion will get the home game regardless of seed, but they belong here.
9. Artesia (14-10). At first glance, a 9-3 record in class looks good. And there's a win over Del Norte. But the Lady Bulldogs beat a 3-23 Bernalillo team, Albuquerque Academy (7-20) and Belen (7-17). Two close losses to Roswell do help, though.
10. St. Pius X (14-10). The defending state champion slumped along at 6-8 until a six-game wining streak boosted its image. Included in that string were wins over Valencia and Los Alamos. It resurrected the champs to a higher seed.
11. Piedra Vista (16-11). The Lady Panthers are the leaders of the pedestrian group that follows. While it has a winning record, Piedra Vista's biggest win is over a 7-16 Grants team. That doesn't say much.
12. Silver (14-10). Winning record, no stand-out wins. In fact, it even lost to ...
13. Capital (11-13). The Lady Jaguars are 8-8 against district competition, but they lost twice in a row to Taos. That hurt their standing. And with the Lady Hilltoppers at No. 5, Capital had to go somewhere. Down.
14. Valencia (13-14). Here's another Lady Jaguars team that gets in, but mostly based on finishing tied for second in a bad district. Nothing gaudy, just a 6-8 AAAA record.
15. Chaparral (14-12). Yes, the Lady Lobos have a winning record, but until district season started, they played NO AAAA teams. A big no-no if you want o reap the rewards of a winning record.
16. Taos (10-18). It came down to another 3AAAA team, Santa Teresa, and the Lady Tigers. Taos' 3-1 push at the end of the season got it past the Lady Desert Warrriors, who own an out-of-district win over the winless Lady Rockets (see above). The Lady Tigers do, as well, but those Capital wins give them the upper hand.
Congrats, Coach Robert Trujillo.
AAAA
1. Kirtland Central (21-2). Thanks to two District 1AAAA wins over Shiprock, the second-ranked team in AAAA by the NMHSCA poll. The Lady Broncos' two losses came against an Arizona school and AAA Thoreau. Add to that wins over Belen and Los Alamos, and Kirtland Central is 10-0 against AAAA competition. Enough said.
2. Shiprock (20-6). Aside from the losses to the No. 1 seed, the Lady Chieftains have beaten 2AAAA champion Española Valley, Belen and Grants. That's why the Lady Sundevils are ...
3. Española (23-4). The pride of District 2AAAA went 6-1 against AAAA schools outside of the district and is 14-2 overall. The loss to Los Alamos doesn't hurt when considering the Lady Sundevils lost to Shiprock and beat Grants, Moriarty, Piedra Vista and Aztec. A 2-1 mark over the Lady Hilltoppers helps greatly as well.
4. Roswell (16-9). The Lady Coyotes are a perfect 8-0 against AAAA competition, with wins over Los Alamos, Del Norte (the 5AAAA champ), Deming (3AAAA) and Silver. Roswell was one of those rare southern schools that ventured outside of the south to bolster its resume. This is its reward.
5. Los Alamos (19-9). The Lady Hilltoppers played the most AAAA schools of any school, and went 15-5 overall. Among the résumé-boosting victories include Volcano Vista (the 6AAAA champion), Del Norte, and St. Pius X (the 6AAAA runner-up). The win over Española gives Los Alamos bragging rights of going 3-1 against AAAA district champions. Impressive, indeed.
6. Volcano Vista (15-10). Of the Lady Hawks' 10 losses, eight have come against AAAAA teams. They are 10-2 overall in the class, with two wins over the Lady Knights, another over Valencia and a 6AAAA split with St. Pius. That 2-8 start is a thing of the past.
7. Deming (16-9). The Lady Wildcats looked bad when I saw them at the Lady Jaguar Invitational in December, and a 7-8 start didn't look much better. However, Deming is 9-1 since then and the 3AAAA champion. Still, the Lady Wildcats lack a "Look at us" win (only against 5AAAA runner-up Valencia, compared to losses to Roswell and Artesia). Look where they end up.
8. Del Norte (14-12). The Lady Knights went 9-6 against AAAA competition, but their signature win was over the Lady Sartans. They couldn't beat Roswell, Los Alamos and Volcano Vista (twice). The district champion will get the home game regardless of seed, but they belong here.
9. Artesia (14-10). At first glance, a 9-3 record in class looks good. And there's a win over Del Norte. But the Lady Bulldogs beat a 3-23 Bernalillo team, Albuquerque Academy (7-20) and Belen (7-17). Two close losses to Roswell do help, though.
10. St. Pius X (14-10). The defending state champion slumped along at 6-8 until a six-game wining streak boosted its image. Included in that string were wins over Valencia and Los Alamos. It resurrected the champs to a higher seed.
11. Piedra Vista (16-11). The Lady Panthers are the leaders of the pedestrian group that follows. While it has a winning record, Piedra Vista's biggest win is over a 7-16 Grants team. That doesn't say much.
12. Silver (14-10). Winning record, no stand-out wins. In fact, it even lost to ...
13. Capital (11-13). The Lady Jaguars are 8-8 against district competition, but they lost twice in a row to Taos. That hurt their standing. And with the Lady Hilltoppers at No. 5, Capital had to go somewhere. Down.
14. Valencia (13-14). Here's another Lady Jaguars team that gets in, but mostly based on finishing tied for second in a bad district. Nothing gaudy, just a 6-8 AAAA record.
15. Chaparral (14-12). Yes, the Lady Lobos have a winning record, but until district season started, they played NO AAAA teams. A big no-no if you want o reap the rewards of a winning record.
16. Taos (10-18). It came down to another 3AAAA team, Santa Teresa, and the Lady Tigers. Taos' 3-1 push at the end of the season got it past the Lady Desert Warrriors, who own an out-of-district win over the winless Lady Rockets (see above). The Lady Tigers do, as well, but those Capital wins give them the upper hand.
Congrats, Coach Robert Trujillo.
Feb 23, 2010
Los Alamos-Espanola Valley running thread
First quarter
Sloppy play as both teams combine for 11 turnovers. Nisa Duran scored on a 3-pointer and a pair of free throws to help Espanola take an 11-6 lead.
Second quarter
The Lady Sundevils are hot. The Vigil duo of Melanie and Justine score the first seven points of the quarter.
It's 18-6, EV. 6:54 to go.
Espanola increases its lead to 20-8 before Los Alamos cuts the deficit to 21-12 as Shelby Courtright hits a pair of jumpers.
21-12, under 3 minutes.
Espanola turns it around in the final two minutes with a Justine Vigil 3 and a Desiree Howie jumper. Howie has returned after missing the last two weeks of the regular season with a shoulder separation.
The teams head into the locker room with the Lady Sundevils holding a 26-15 lead.
Sloppy play as both teams combine for 11 turnovers. Nisa Duran scored on a 3-pointer and a pair of free throws to help Espanola take an 11-6 lead.
Second quarter
The Lady Sundevils are hot. The Vigil duo of Melanie and Justine score the first seven points of the quarter.
It's 18-6, EV. 6:54 to go.
Espanola increases its lead to 20-8 before Los Alamos cuts the deficit to 21-12 as Shelby Courtright hits a pair of jumpers.
21-12, under 3 minutes.
Espanola turns it around in the final two minutes with a Justine Vigil 3 and a Desiree Howie jumper. Howie has returned after missing the last two weeks of the regular season with a shoulder separation.
The teams head into the locker room with the Lady Sundevils holding a 26-15 lead.
Feb 21, 2010
Class AAAA bracket update
While might seem to be all around Class AAAA, in reality, only a few changes seem necessary. Here's the rundown.
1. Roswell (22-2). The Coyotes WILL be the NO. 1 team in the class. No ifs, ands or buts about it. As I pointed out before, Roswell has not lost to a New Mexico school. The defending AAAA state champion won't have to worry about that coming until March 10, then all bets are off.
2. Espanola Valley (24-2). The Sundevils weren't really hurt by the loss to Hope Christian. All it did was solidify the two-seed. Now the problem is that Espanola now is paired with Albuquerque Academy on that side of the bracket. And that is something to be worried about.
3. Albuquerque Academy (18-7). The Chargers are12-2 after a 6-5 start, but it must be pointed out that they also have yet to lose to a AAAA team. They also have two wins over District 6AAAA champion Volcano Vista, three over 6AAAA runner-up Albuquerque St. Pius X and Belen, making Academy the unofficial 6AAAA champion (Sorry Grants, you really think you have a shot?)
4. Santa Teresa (19-7). Welcome to the fourth team not to lose in AAAA. The difference, though is that the Desert Warriors' losses aren't as sterling, especially that one to Portales. But Santa Teresa is 9-1 over its last 10 games and could be a spoiler come March.
5. Volcano Vista (15-11). The Hawks looked like they were in line for a four seed, but then came a loss to Grants (OK, so maybe Academy should worry). Still, the district champions won't fall far because of an 11-3 record against AAAA competition.
6. Shiprock (19-7). The Chieftains can solidify this spot with a playoff win over Kirtland Central, but with the committee free to determine where they belong, a loss might not matter. Shiprock is 9-3 within the class and is 2-1 against co-leader Kirtland Central.
7. Los Alamos (17-8). The Hilltoppers saved a tumble in the seedings with a come-from-behind win over Capital, which means the co-2AAAA runners-up get placed where they deserve. Los Alamos benefits from wins over Kirtland Central, Grants, St. Pius and Capital, while the loss to Del Norte is lessened.
8. Kirtland Central (15-10). The debate here is reputation vs. resume, and resume wins out. While St. Pius might be the 6AAAA runner up, its loss to the Broncos gives the edge to the Four Corners team. Wins over the Sartans and Grants help their cause.
9. St. Pius X (11-15). The Sartans are on a 7-3 closing run after a 4-11 slump to start the year. This is about as high as they can go, even if they beat Volcano Vista in the district tournament. But this has been a nice save regardless.
10. Piedra Vista (16-10). If it hadn't been for a two-game losing streak to close out the 1AAAA season, the Panthers might have made an argument for a fifth seed. Instead, they drop below the Sartans, thanks to that sticky first-round rule. But Piedra Vista is 5-1 outside of district play and the Hilltoppers should pay attention to Brian Shock's team very closely. Remember 2006?
11. Grants (16-7). Yes, the Pirates have a better record than Piedra Vista, but Grants is 9-6 against AAAA competition and are only 6-6 since a 10-1 start. How you finish is as much an indicator of a team's seed as anything else.
12. Capital (12-11). The Jaguars missed out on jumping possibly to an eight seed with a win over the Hilltoppers Saturday, but a 4-1 finish was quite a run. Can they slide up a spot or two? Maybe. An 8-4 AAAA mark is better than Grants' effort and a couple of wins will get Capital to a 2AAAA title game against Espanola. Too bad it took six weeks for Capital to wake up.
13. Belen (15-10). Go ahead, make an argument for Belen being ahead of Capital. Yes, the Eagles were 8-3 against non-district AAAA schools, but they were 1-5 and in last place in the district. That has to count for something. It does in my book. Oh, and Belen sucks! (Los Lunas grad here).
14. Artesia (12-13). The Bulldogs benefit from a 5-3 AAAA pre-district mark, while Roswell Goddard went 2-2. Never mind that the schools split. Enough said.
15. Valencia (10-16). The 5AAAA runner-up gets in because it owns a win over its main competitor, Aztec. However, that 1-10 mark against non-district AAAA looks ugly. Very ugly.
16. Chaparral (10-16). The Lobos are 3-3 against AAAA competition - too bad its all against 3AAAA teams. What saves them is that Aztec was 2-4 and beat a four-win Bernalillo and five-win Farmington (in tournament play) in the process. A district runner-up should trump a fourth-place team. Unless that runner-up is really bad.
1. Roswell (22-2). The Coyotes WILL be the NO. 1 team in the class. No ifs, ands or buts about it. As I pointed out before, Roswell has not lost to a New Mexico school. The defending AAAA state champion won't have to worry about that coming until March 10, then all bets are off.
2. Espanola Valley (24-2). The Sundevils weren't really hurt by the loss to Hope Christian. All it did was solidify the two-seed. Now the problem is that Espanola now is paired with Albuquerque Academy on that side of the bracket. And that is something to be worried about.
3. Albuquerque Academy (18-7). The Chargers are12-2 after a 6-5 start, but it must be pointed out that they also have yet to lose to a AAAA team. They also have two wins over District 6AAAA champion Volcano Vista, three over 6AAAA runner-up Albuquerque St. Pius X and Belen, making Academy the unofficial 6AAAA champion (Sorry Grants, you really think you have a shot?)
4. Santa Teresa (19-7). Welcome to the fourth team not to lose in AAAA. The difference, though is that the Desert Warriors' losses aren't as sterling, especially that one to Portales. But Santa Teresa is 9-1 over its last 10 games and could be a spoiler come March.
5. Volcano Vista (15-11). The Hawks looked like they were in line for a four seed, but then came a loss to Grants (OK, so maybe Academy should worry). Still, the district champions won't fall far because of an 11-3 record against AAAA competition.
6. Shiprock (19-7). The Chieftains can solidify this spot with a playoff win over Kirtland Central, but with the committee free to determine where they belong, a loss might not matter. Shiprock is 9-3 within the class and is 2-1 against co-leader Kirtland Central.
7. Los Alamos (17-8). The Hilltoppers saved a tumble in the seedings with a come-from-behind win over Capital, which means the co-2AAAA runners-up get placed where they deserve. Los Alamos benefits from wins over Kirtland Central, Grants, St. Pius and Capital, while the loss to Del Norte is lessened.
8. Kirtland Central (15-10). The debate here is reputation vs. resume, and resume wins out. While St. Pius might be the 6AAAA runner up, its loss to the Broncos gives the edge to the Four Corners team. Wins over the Sartans and Grants help their cause.
9. St. Pius X (11-15). The Sartans are on a 7-3 closing run after a 4-11 slump to start the year. This is about as high as they can go, even if they beat Volcano Vista in the district tournament. But this has been a nice save regardless.
10. Piedra Vista (16-10). If it hadn't been for a two-game losing streak to close out the 1AAAA season, the Panthers might have made an argument for a fifth seed. Instead, they drop below the Sartans, thanks to that sticky first-round rule. But Piedra Vista is 5-1 outside of district play and the Hilltoppers should pay attention to Brian Shock's team very closely. Remember 2006?
11. Grants (16-7). Yes, the Pirates have a better record than Piedra Vista, but Grants is 9-6 against AAAA competition and are only 6-6 since a 10-1 start. How you finish is as much an indicator of a team's seed as anything else.
12. Capital (12-11). The Jaguars missed out on jumping possibly to an eight seed with a win over the Hilltoppers Saturday, but a 4-1 finish was quite a run. Can they slide up a spot or two? Maybe. An 8-4 AAAA mark is better than Grants' effort and a couple of wins will get Capital to a 2AAAA title game against Espanola. Too bad it took six weeks for Capital to wake up.
13. Belen (15-10). Go ahead, make an argument for Belen being ahead of Capital. Yes, the Eagles were 8-3 against non-district AAAA schools, but they were 1-5 and in last place in the district. That has to count for something. It does in my book. Oh, and Belen sucks! (Los Lunas grad here).
14. Artesia (12-13). The Bulldogs benefit from a 5-3 AAAA pre-district mark, while Roswell Goddard went 2-2. Never mind that the schools split. Enough said.
15. Valencia (10-16). The 5AAAA runner-up gets in because it owns a win over its main competitor, Aztec. However, that 1-10 mark against non-district AAAA looks ugly. Very ugly.
16. Chaparral (10-16). The Lobos are 3-3 against AAAA competition - too bad its all against 3AAAA teams. What saves them is that Aztec was 2-4 and beat a four-win Bernalillo and five-win Farmington (in tournament play) in the process. A district runner-up should trump a fourth-place team. Unless that runner-up is really bad.
Class AAA projection (AKA my best guess)
The easy part is Hope Christian. The rest? Well ... AAA is quite competitive (at least the records are fooling me right now). What I thought were slam dunks, might not be.
Without further ado ....
1. Hope Christian (25-1). The top seed in District 5AAA, the Huskies have shown throughout the season they are the best team in the state. That said, beware of the Sandia Prep Sun Devils, who always seem to give Hope a scare - or three.
2. Lovington (21-4). Take a wild guess who also hasn't lost to a AAA school? Surprise! Granted one of those losses is to AA school Texico (but a VERY good Texico team), but Lovington is 8-0 against AAA competition. Now all eight of those teams are in District 4AAA, but the Wildcats are the top seed in that tournament, and an undefeated class record IS an undefeated class record.
3. Sandia Prep (17-8). Hard to penalize a team for being in Hope's district. The Sun Devils played the Huskies the closest, and they also have played some AAA competition, with wins over Zuni, Ruidoso and - this is very important - the trio of Santa Fe Indian School, Pojoaque and Socorro. Two of them (Socorro and SFIS) are regular season district champs.
4. Santa Fe Indian School (20-6). The District 2AAA champion has never been seeded this low - usually because St. Michael's, the five-time champ prior to this season - had the resume for the top three. SFIS owns a 15-4 record over AAA competition, and the losses are good ones - to the Sun Devils, the Huskies twice and Pojoaque in a tournament - but the resume doesn't quite stack up to the other three.
5. Tohatchi (20-4). The District 1AAA champion is 14-1 against AAA competition, so why not put the Cougars ahead of the Braves? Well .... Put Tohatchi in 2AAA and SFIS in 1AAA, and what would happen? The Braves would still be district champions. You couldn't say the same about Tohatchi. Plus, out-of-district wins over Hatch Valley and Laguna-Acoma (and a tournament win over Wingate) don't quite stack up with SFIS.
6. St. Michael's (16-10). District 2AAA might argue that it is the toughest district in AAA, but what the district teams lack are quality wins. The Horsemen own wins over Socorro and Wingate (the third place team in 1AAA) and that's just attractive enough to get them this high. Finishing second and beating Pojoaque twice this year is also a feather in the St. Michael's cap.
7. Pojoaque (17-9). The Elks, third in 2AAA, gets rated ahead of 3AAA champion Socorro because of their 62-50 win in December. They also have an out-of-district win over SFIS. The loss to Sandia Prep is bad, but Pojoaque's only other AAA losses are to SFIS and St. Michael's twice each.
8. Socorro (12-13). Yes, the Warriors might be district champions, but they were 6-13 in the nondistrict season. Give credit for Socorro playing tough AAA teams, but it was 4-4 outside 3AAA. The losses were to Pojoaque, St. Michael's, Wingate and Sandia Prep. the signature win was NMMI, which was second in 4AAA.
9. Wingate (17-9). Now we start getting into the beauty pageant part of the "best of the rest." The Bears enjoy wins over Socorro, Thoreau (twice) and Ruidoso. They also lost three times to Tohatchi (once in a tournament) and St. Michael's. They look pretty enough to me.
10. Bloomfield (20-6). The Bobcats might have tied Wingate for second in 1AAA, but the Bears have better AAA wins. And the fact that Bloomfield beat a AAAAA junior varsity and Navajo Prep twice isn't quite as attractive.
11. NMMI (17-9). The Colts, who tied for second in 4AAA, have a good-looking record. Upon further inspections, beating a host of A and AA schools is bad. But the strength of 2AAA and the weakness of Portales gives NMMI a better seed than maybe it deserves.
12. Las Vegas Robertson (17-8). What can one win do? Well, a win over St. Michael's means the Cardinals don't get penalized for a weak nondistrict schedule (sweeps over Tucumcari and Ruidoso, a win over A school Springer). But they did lose to Socorro. So it does balance out.
13. Newcomb (13-11). The good for the Skyhawks is that they are 10-7 against AAA competition, and they were competitive in sweeps at the hand of Wingate and Tohatchi. That win over Bloomfield can't help but ... help?
14. Portales (12-12). The Rams are 8-5 after a 4-7 start, and they have good losses during the last 13 games (to Socorro, SFIS, and Lovington twice). Portales routinely has a tough schedule, but it simply lacks a quality AAA win this season.
15. Thoreau (11-14). Oh, this was a hard decision. This spot came down to a battle of the Hawks with fellow 5AAA member Laguna-Acoma. Laguna-Acoma had a better out-of-district record (5-4 vs. 4-5), but Thoreau has a nondistrict win over it. And that 71-70 win is the sliver that gets Thoreau in into the state tournament because ...
16. Ruidoso (8-16). Laguna-Acoma was automatically out because Hope Christian is No. 1. Hot Springs is 10-14, but it did not beat a AAA school (in fact all but a Silver win were against AA schools and below) until district play. Ruidoso, meanwhile, was 4-7 against AAA competition, plus it went 3-1 against 3AAA competition with wins over the Tigers and Hatch Valley. Of course, this spot truly belongs to Laguna-Acoma, but .... Sorry, Hawks.
Without further ado ....
1. Hope Christian (25-1). The top seed in District 5AAA, the Huskies have shown throughout the season they are the best team in the state. That said, beware of the Sandia Prep Sun Devils, who always seem to give Hope a scare - or three.
2. Lovington (21-4). Take a wild guess who also hasn't lost to a AAA school? Surprise! Granted one of those losses is to AA school Texico (but a VERY good Texico team), but Lovington is 8-0 against AAA competition. Now all eight of those teams are in District 4AAA, but the Wildcats are the top seed in that tournament, and an undefeated class record IS an undefeated class record.
3. Sandia Prep (17-8). Hard to penalize a team for being in Hope's district. The Sun Devils played the Huskies the closest, and they also have played some AAA competition, with wins over Zuni, Ruidoso and - this is very important - the trio of Santa Fe Indian School, Pojoaque and Socorro. Two of them (Socorro and SFIS) are regular season district champs.
4. Santa Fe Indian School (20-6). The District 2AAA champion has never been seeded this low - usually because St. Michael's, the five-time champ prior to this season - had the resume for the top three. SFIS owns a 15-4 record over AAA competition, and the losses are good ones - to the Sun Devils, the Huskies twice and Pojoaque in a tournament - but the resume doesn't quite stack up to the other three.
5. Tohatchi (20-4). The District 1AAA champion is 14-1 against AAA competition, so why not put the Cougars ahead of the Braves? Well .... Put Tohatchi in 2AAA and SFIS in 1AAA, and what would happen? The Braves would still be district champions. You couldn't say the same about Tohatchi. Plus, out-of-district wins over Hatch Valley and Laguna-Acoma (and a tournament win over Wingate) don't quite stack up with SFIS.
6. St. Michael's (16-10). District 2AAA might argue that it is the toughest district in AAA, but what the district teams lack are quality wins. The Horsemen own wins over Socorro and Wingate (the third place team in 1AAA) and that's just attractive enough to get them this high. Finishing second and beating Pojoaque twice this year is also a feather in the St. Michael's cap.
7. Pojoaque (17-9). The Elks, third in 2AAA, gets rated ahead of 3AAA champion Socorro because of their 62-50 win in December. They also have an out-of-district win over SFIS. The loss to Sandia Prep is bad, but Pojoaque's only other AAA losses are to SFIS and St. Michael's twice each.
8. Socorro (12-13). Yes, the Warriors might be district champions, but they were 6-13 in the nondistrict season. Give credit for Socorro playing tough AAA teams, but it was 4-4 outside 3AAA. The losses were to Pojoaque, St. Michael's, Wingate and Sandia Prep. the signature win was NMMI, which was second in 4AAA.
9. Wingate (17-9). Now we start getting into the beauty pageant part of the "best of the rest." The Bears enjoy wins over Socorro, Thoreau (twice) and Ruidoso. They also lost three times to Tohatchi (once in a tournament) and St. Michael's. They look pretty enough to me.
10. Bloomfield (20-6). The Bobcats might have tied Wingate for second in 1AAA, but the Bears have better AAA wins. And the fact that Bloomfield beat a AAAAA junior varsity and Navajo Prep twice isn't quite as attractive.
11. NMMI (17-9). The Colts, who tied for second in 4AAA, have a good-looking record. Upon further inspections, beating a host of A and AA schools is bad. But the strength of 2AAA and the weakness of Portales gives NMMI a better seed than maybe it deserves.
12. Las Vegas Robertson (17-8). What can one win do? Well, a win over St. Michael's means the Cardinals don't get penalized for a weak nondistrict schedule (sweeps over Tucumcari and Ruidoso, a win over A school Springer). But they did lose to Socorro. So it does balance out.
13. Newcomb (13-11). The good for the Skyhawks is that they are 10-7 against AAA competition, and they were competitive in sweeps at the hand of Wingate and Tohatchi. That win over Bloomfield can't help but ... help?
14. Portales (12-12). The Rams are 8-5 after a 4-7 start, and they have good losses during the last 13 games (to Socorro, SFIS, and Lovington twice). Portales routinely has a tough schedule, but it simply lacks a quality AAA win this season.
15. Thoreau (11-14). Oh, this was a hard decision. This spot came down to a battle of the Hawks with fellow 5AAA member Laguna-Acoma. Laguna-Acoma had a better out-of-district record (5-4 vs. 4-5), but Thoreau has a nondistrict win over it. And that 71-70 win is the sliver that gets Thoreau in into the state tournament because ...
16. Ruidoso (8-16). Laguna-Acoma was automatically out because Hope Christian is No. 1. Hot Springs is 10-14, but it did not beat a AAA school (in fact all but a Silver win were against AA schools and below) until district play. Ruidoso, meanwhile, was 4-7 against AAA competition, plus it went 3-1 against 3AAA competition with wins over the Tigers and Hatch Valley. Of course, this spot truly belongs to Laguna-Acoma, but .... Sorry, Hawks.
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