Class AAA projection (AKA my best guess)

The easy part is Hope Christian. The rest? Well ... AAA is quite competitive (at least the records are fooling me right now). What I thought were slam dunks, might not be.
Without further ado ....

1. Hope Christian (25-1). The top seed in District 5AAA, the Huskies have shown throughout the season they are the best team in the state. That said, beware of the Sandia Prep Sun Devils, who always seem to give Hope a scare - or three.
2. Lovington (21-4). Take a wild guess who also hasn't lost to a AAA school? Surprise! Granted one of those losses is to AA school Texico (but a VERY good Texico team), but Lovington is 8-0 against AAA competition. Now all eight of those teams are in District 4AAA, but the Wildcats are the top seed in that tournament, and an undefeated class record IS an undefeated class record.
3. Sandia Prep (17-8). Hard to penalize a team for being in Hope's district. The Sun Devils played the Huskies the closest, and they also have played some AAA competition, with wins over Zuni, Ruidoso and - this is very important - the trio of Santa Fe Indian School, Pojoaque and Socorro. Two of them (Socorro and SFIS) are regular season district champs.
4. Santa Fe Indian School (20-6). The District 2AAA champion has never been seeded this low - usually because St. Michael's, the five-time champ prior to this season - had the resume for the top three. SFIS owns a 15-4 record over AAA competition, and the losses are good ones - to the Sun Devils, the Huskies twice and Pojoaque in a tournament - but the resume doesn't quite stack up to the other three.
5. Tohatchi (20-4). The District 1AAA champion is 14-1 against AAA competition, so why not put the Cougars ahead of the Braves? Well .... Put Tohatchi in 2AAA and SFIS in 1AAA, and what would happen? The Braves would still be district champions. You couldn't say the same about Tohatchi. Plus, out-of-district wins over Hatch Valley and Laguna-Acoma (and a tournament win over Wingate) don't quite stack up with SFIS.
6. St. Michael's (16-10). District 2AAA might argue that it is the toughest district in AAA, but what the district teams lack are quality wins. The Horsemen own wins over Socorro and Wingate (the third place team in 1AAA) and that's just attractive enough to get them this high. Finishing second and beating Pojoaque twice this year is also a feather in the St. Michael's cap.
7. Pojoaque (17-9). The Elks, third in 2AAA, gets rated ahead of 3AAA champion Socorro because of their 62-50 win in December. They also have an out-of-district win over SFIS. The loss to Sandia Prep is bad, but Pojoaque's only other AAA losses are to SFIS and St. Michael's twice each.
8. Socorro (12-13). Yes, the Warriors might be district champions, but they were 6-13 in the nondistrict season. Give credit for Socorro playing tough AAA teams, but it was 4-4 outside 3AAA. The losses were to Pojoaque, St. Michael's, Wingate and Sandia Prep. the signature win was NMMI, which was second in 4AAA.
9. Wingate (17-9). Now we start getting into the beauty pageant part of the "best of the rest." The Bears enjoy wins over Socorro, Thoreau (twice) and Ruidoso. They also lost three times to Tohatchi (once in a tournament) and St. Michael's. They look pretty enough to me.
10. Bloomfield (20-6). The Bobcats might have tied Wingate for second in 1AAA, but the Bears have better AAA wins. And the fact that Bloomfield beat a AAAAA junior varsity and Navajo Prep twice isn't quite as attractive.
11. NMMI (17-9). The Colts, who tied for second in 4AAA, have a good-looking record. Upon further inspections, beating a host of A and AA schools is bad. But the strength of 2AAA and the weakness of Portales gives NMMI a better seed than maybe it deserves.
12. Las Vegas Robertson (17-8). What can one win do? Well, a win over St. Michael's means the Cardinals don't get penalized for a weak nondistrict schedule (sweeps over Tucumcari and Ruidoso, a win over A school Springer). But they did lose to Socorro. So it does balance out.
13. Newcomb (13-11). The good for the Skyhawks is that they are 10-7 against AAA competition, and they were competitive in sweeps at the hand of Wingate and Tohatchi. That win over Bloomfield can't help but ... help?
14. Portales (12-12). The Rams are 8-5 after a 4-7 start, and they have good losses during the last 13 games (to Socorro, SFIS, and Lovington twice). Portales routinely has a tough schedule, but it simply lacks a quality AAA win this season.
15. Thoreau (11-14). Oh, this was a hard decision. This spot came down to a battle of the Hawks with fellow 5AAA member Laguna-Acoma. Laguna-Acoma had a better out-of-district record (5-4 vs. 4-5), but Thoreau has a nondistrict win over it. And that 71-70 win is the sliver that gets Thoreau in into the state tournament because ...
16. Ruidoso (8-16). Laguna-Acoma was automatically out because Hope Christian is No. 1. Hot Springs is 10-14, but it did not beat a AAA school (in fact all but a Silver win were against AA schools and below) until district play. Ruidoso, meanwhile, was 4-7 against AAA competition, plus it went 3-1 against 3AAA competition with wins over the Tigers and Hatch Valley. Of course, this spot truly belongs to Laguna-Acoma, but .... Sorry, Hawks.