Because many New Mexico schools play opponents from Texas, Oklahoma, Utah and Arizona, I figured it might interested people to see how some of those teams are doing in their states. Her's a small sample:
Colorado
Pueblo South: The Colts, who were the Capital City Invitational champions this year, have lived up to every bit of their expectations so far, having posted a 23-0 record. They are the top seed in their region, which started play on Wednesday. Pueblo South earned a bye for the first round, and play Arvada for the right to go to the Sweet 16 on March 6.
Texas
El Paso Montwood: The Rams improved to 29-3 and advanced to the Class AAAAA regional quarterfinal with a 58-40 win over Mansfield Summit on Friday. It is the fourth time in five years Montwood has advanced this far.
El Paso El Dorado: The Aztecs won their first-ever playoff game with a 65-50 win over Lubbock Coronado on Tuesday. El Dorado (24-9) faced Arlington Bowie this afternoon in an area round playoff game, with the winner advancing to the regional quarterfinals.
El Paso Hanks: The Knights (20-13) won its playoff opener, 60-52, over Midland Lee on Tuesday. Their act continued today against Arlington Martin in an area playoff game.
Midland High: The Bulldogs were walloped by defending AAAAA champion North Crowley, 57-40, in an area playoff game. Their season ended with a 23-7 record.
Feb 28, 2009
Friday night scores
Some big games occured outside of the District 2AAAA and 2AAA championships.
For those who missed it, Española Valley beat Los Alamos 56-49 for its third straight district title.
St. Michael's did the Sundevils one better by beating Pojoaque for its fourth consecutive state crown, 46-41 in a sold-out Perez-Shelley Gymnasium.
Here's what else happened in district tournament play.
Boys
2AAAAA semifinal
Valley 65, Santa Fe High 55
5AAAAA semifinal
Highland 61, Rio Grande 48
1AAAA semifinal
Shiprock 63, Kirtland Central 47
6AAAA championship
St. Pius 67, Belen 60 (OT)
5AAA championship
Hope Christian 76, Sandia Prep 61
For those who missed it, Española Valley beat Los Alamos 56-49 for its third straight district title.
St. Michael's did the Sundevils one better by beating Pojoaque for its fourth consecutive state crown, 46-41 in a sold-out Perez-Shelley Gymnasium.
Here's what else happened in district tournament play.
Boys
2AAAAA semifinal
Valley 65, Santa Fe High 55
5AAAAA semifinal
Highland 61, Rio Grande 48
1AAAA semifinal
Shiprock 63, Kirtland Central 47
6AAAA championship
St. Pius 67, Belen 60 (OT)
5AAA championship
Hope Christian 76, Sandia Prep 61
Feb 27, 2009
Championship Friday
It should be an exciting night with the two biggest rivalries in the North to take place at the same time.
District 2AAA championship
Pojoaque at St. Michael's
District 2AAAA championship
Los Alamos at Española Valley
Both games will start at 7 p.m., but get to Perez-Shelley Gymnasium and Edward Medina Gymnasium early. I can't emphasize this enough.
EARLY!!
Tickets will go on sale at 4 p.m. at Española, and at 6 p.m. at St. Michael's. I would expect the lines to be long and - in the case of the 2AAA championship - some people will get shut out of the gym.
Either way, get out there and witness what should be two gems.
If you're curious about my predictions, here they are:
District 2AAAA championship
Everything points to a Sundevils win. They have the home court advantage, they've won their last five games and they have stronger, more composed guards. That said, the games have come down to the wire, and this will be no exception.
If 6-foot-11 post Alex Kirk gets 30, Los Alamos wins by 6.
If Kirk gets under 25, Española wins by 4.
Anything in between means it'll be decided by a last-second shot. It just depends on who has the ball last.
District 2AAA championship
The Elks have never been closer to breaking their Horsemen hex. Two overtime losses - the last on a controversial last-second basket - show how even these teams are. Don't expect a game in the 50s, and maybe even not in the 40s. This will be a taught, defensive struggle, and those usually suggest that St. Michael's has the upper hand. But here's an important stat: the Horsemen are 2-6 this year when scoring less than 50 points. If it hadn't been for overtime in both games against the Elks, St. Michael's would have been in the 40s.
That's Pojoaque's goal tonight - less than 50, and they should win.
And I believe the Elks will do that.
Enjoy the games, folks.
District 2AAA championship
Pojoaque at St. Michael's
District 2AAAA championship
Los Alamos at Española Valley
Both games will start at 7 p.m., but get to Perez-Shelley Gymnasium and Edward Medina Gymnasium early. I can't emphasize this enough.
EARLY!!
Tickets will go on sale at 4 p.m. at Española, and at 6 p.m. at St. Michael's. I would expect the lines to be long and - in the case of the 2AAA championship - some people will get shut out of the gym.
Either way, get out there and witness what should be two gems.
If you're curious about my predictions, here they are:
District 2AAAA championship
Everything points to a Sundevils win. They have the home court advantage, they've won their last five games and they have stronger, more composed guards. That said, the games have come down to the wire, and this will be no exception.
If 6-foot-11 post Alex Kirk gets 30, Los Alamos wins by 6.
If Kirk gets under 25, Española wins by 4.
Anything in between means it'll be decided by a last-second shot. It just depends on who has the ball last.
District 2AAA championship
The Elks have never been closer to breaking their Horsemen hex. Two overtime losses - the last on a controversial last-second basket - show how even these teams are. Don't expect a game in the 50s, and maybe even not in the 40s. This will be a taught, defensive struggle, and those usually suggest that St. Michael's has the upper hand. But here's an important stat: the Horsemen are 2-6 this year when scoring less than 50 points. If it hadn't been for overtime in both games against the Elks, St. Michael's would have been in the 40s.
That's Pojoaque's goal tonight - less than 50, and they should win.
And I believe the Elks will do that.
Enjoy the games, folks.
Feb 24, 2009
AAA update
Boy, this is tiring. Updating all three classes in one day. But it's what I do because I love it. And to give you, the readers, some reasoning for my thought process.
Anyway, AAA isn't as hopping as AAAA was, but the tweaks will be there.
Enjoy.
1. Hope Christian (23-3). If there was any doubt about the Huskies' dominance, Saturday night was a subtle reminder about everybody's place in Class AAA. Hope Christian 63, Sandia Preparatory 43. See you on March 14, Hope.
2. St. Michael's (19-7). The Horsemen wrapped up a perfect District 2AAA season with an overtime win over Pojoaque, and thus have wrapped up the No. 2 seed. Yes, Portales is sitting there at a three, but what can the Rams say they have that the Horsemen don't?
3. Portales (18-8). The Rams are 8-0, but more important is what thy have done since Dec. 29. After losing to West Las Vegas in the Stu Clark Tournament, Portales is 16-3. Its only losses are to Hope Christian, Texico and Artesia. Not bad company there. just not enough to leap over St. Michael's.
4. Sandia Prep (18-7). So Prep got walloped by Hope Christian. Yet, the Sun Devils move up a spot. That's the benefit of a strong nondistrict schedule. That and the fact that they are undefeated in their last 13 games against teams not named Hope Christian.
5. Wingate (20-6). Well, do the Bears really deserve this spot? The answer is no, but because 1AAA occupies key spots at the bottom of the bracket, they move here. They are the top seed in the district tournament, but the district champion likely will be moved to this spot.
6. Pojoaque (17-9). Again, the Elks are really a No. 5, but they fall victim to the seeding game. Or do they? As it stands now, Pojoaque is away from Hope Christian's side of the bracket. That means it could see St. Michael's in the semifinals, but the Elks have to believe it's easier to beat the Horsemen than it is to beat the Huskies.
7. Bloomfield (21-6). The Rams have nothing to hang their hat on after losing to Wingate. Sure, they beat the Bears, but by a 74-73 score. That was wiped away after Saturday. So that leaves you with a win over Socorro, but the Warriors aren't looking much better.
8. SFIS (15-12). The Braves are 7-2 since an 0-3 start in 2AAA. Their stock can only rise over the next three days. A win over Pojoaque would be huge. Perhaps enough to get past Bloomfield. Either way, SFIS has earned itself a home date.
9. Socorro (14-12). Time to pat myself on the back. Did I not foreshadow the impending loss to Hatch Valley to close out the 3AAA season? The Warriors won't drop any further, even if the Bears repeat their performance in the district championship
10. West Las Vegas (15-14). It hasn't been a good week to be a Don. First, they have to forfeit their regular season finale to Robertson for scheduling too many games. Then, they lose a heartbreaker to SFIS on Tuesday. At least West Las Vegas has 10 days to recuperate.
11. Crownpoint (15-11). Third place in 1AAA gets you this spot. That won't change despite a loss to Newcomb in the district tournament on Tuesday.
12. Lovington (11-13). I found a reason to move the Wildcats up! Thanks, Wingate. Funny, the Lovington has done nothing in a week, yet it found a way to improve its slot. Continue not playing and I'll see about getting you a home game.
13. Newcomb (15-12).The Skyhawks might disagree with this spot, but they are trapped by the confines of the New Mexico Activities Association's rules. Sorry about that.
OK, so this is where it gets messy. Who goes where? Hatch is a 15 or a 16 seed, bit can't be there because Ruidoso, who has been a 15 since the start, is in the same district as Portales. If Dexter gets the other spot, it can't go here either for the same reason. If I choose Cuba - who deserves the 16th seed - it can't be there because of district partner Hope Christian. So, we will do this:
14. Cuba (9-18). It was hard choice trying to find someone who deserved to be the 16th team into the tournament. But the Rams beat Crownpoint and beat (a bad) AAAA team in Kirtland Central. Now, you get to go to Portales.
15. Ruidoso (12-15). The Warriors are improving, having won three of four games. Their win over Dexter on Tuesday sets up a district semifinal against Lovington, and they can move closer to an automatic bid with win. It still won't change their place.
16. Hatch Valley (8-18). Welcome to the state tournament, Bears. A win over Socorro cinched that. Now, enjoy Albuquerque. And say hi to Jim Murphy for me. He's a great guy.
Anyway, AAA isn't as hopping as AAAA was, but the tweaks will be there.
Enjoy.
1. Hope Christian (23-3). If there was any doubt about the Huskies' dominance, Saturday night was a subtle reminder about everybody's place in Class AAA. Hope Christian 63, Sandia Preparatory 43. See you on March 14, Hope.
2. St. Michael's (19-7). The Horsemen wrapped up a perfect District 2AAA season with an overtime win over Pojoaque, and thus have wrapped up the No. 2 seed. Yes, Portales is sitting there at a three, but what can the Rams say they have that the Horsemen don't?
3. Portales (18-8). The Rams are 8-0, but more important is what thy have done since Dec. 29. After losing to West Las Vegas in the Stu Clark Tournament, Portales is 16-3. Its only losses are to Hope Christian, Texico and Artesia. Not bad company there. just not enough to leap over St. Michael's.
4. Sandia Prep (18-7). So Prep got walloped by Hope Christian. Yet, the Sun Devils move up a spot. That's the benefit of a strong nondistrict schedule. That and the fact that they are undefeated in their last 13 games against teams not named Hope Christian.
5. Wingate (20-6). Well, do the Bears really deserve this spot? The answer is no, but because 1AAA occupies key spots at the bottom of the bracket, they move here. They are the top seed in the district tournament, but the district champion likely will be moved to this spot.
6. Pojoaque (17-9). Again, the Elks are really a No. 5, but they fall victim to the seeding game. Or do they? As it stands now, Pojoaque is away from Hope Christian's side of the bracket. That means it could see St. Michael's in the semifinals, but the Elks have to believe it's easier to beat the Horsemen than it is to beat the Huskies.
7. Bloomfield (21-6). The Rams have nothing to hang their hat on after losing to Wingate. Sure, they beat the Bears, but by a 74-73 score. That was wiped away after Saturday. So that leaves you with a win over Socorro, but the Warriors aren't looking much better.
8. SFIS (15-12). The Braves are 7-2 since an 0-3 start in 2AAA. Their stock can only rise over the next three days. A win over Pojoaque would be huge. Perhaps enough to get past Bloomfield. Either way, SFIS has earned itself a home date.
9. Socorro (14-12). Time to pat myself on the back. Did I not foreshadow the impending loss to Hatch Valley to close out the 3AAA season? The Warriors won't drop any further, even if the Bears repeat their performance in the district championship
10. West Las Vegas (15-14). It hasn't been a good week to be a Don. First, they have to forfeit their regular season finale to Robertson for scheduling too many games. Then, they lose a heartbreaker to SFIS on Tuesday. At least West Las Vegas has 10 days to recuperate.
11. Crownpoint (15-11). Third place in 1AAA gets you this spot. That won't change despite a loss to Newcomb in the district tournament on Tuesday.
12. Lovington (11-13). I found a reason to move the Wildcats up! Thanks, Wingate. Funny, the Lovington has done nothing in a week, yet it found a way to improve its slot. Continue not playing and I'll see about getting you a home game.
13. Newcomb (15-12).The Skyhawks might disagree with this spot, but they are trapped by the confines of the New Mexico Activities Association's rules. Sorry about that.
OK, so this is where it gets messy. Who goes where? Hatch is a 15 or a 16 seed, bit can't be there because Ruidoso, who has been a 15 since the start, is in the same district as Portales. If Dexter gets the other spot, it can't go here either for the same reason. If I choose Cuba - who deserves the 16th seed - it can't be there because of district partner Hope Christian. So, we will do this:
14. Cuba (9-18). It was hard choice trying to find someone who deserved to be the 16th team into the tournament. But the Rams beat Crownpoint and beat (a bad) AAAA team in Kirtland Central. Now, you get to go to Portales.
15. Ruidoso (12-15). The Warriors are improving, having won three of four games. Their win over Dexter on Tuesday sets up a district semifinal against Lovington, and they can move closer to an automatic bid with win. It still won't change their place.
16. Hatch Valley (8-18). Welcome to the state tournament, Bears. A win over Socorro cinched that. Now, enjoy Albuquerque. And say hi to Jim Murphy for me. He's a great guy.
Class AAAA update
Things got a little crazy in AAAA. Artesia beat Roswell. Belen beat St. Pius X twice in three days! Shiprock eked out the second seed over Piedra Vista. Whew.
So there will be some adjustments. And for anyone who wants to take umbrage over Belen being seeded higher than St. Pius, well a 2-1 Eagles' edge in games is my retort.
Here we go.
Again ...
1. Española Valley (22-4). Regardless of what happens on Friday, the Sundevils are the No. 1 seed. Roswell's loss to the Bulldogs helped, and Deming just doesn't have the quality wins to usurp them. But the Sundevils' problem hasn't been with seeding ... It's been with what happens when they get to Albuquerque. And the margin for error this year among the top 5-10 teams is slim, at best.
2. Roswell (18-7). The Coyotes are still the top seed in District 4AAAA, but they split with Artesia, which should make the rematch on Saturday crucial for state seeding purposes. A win will secure this spot. A loss could drop them to a three or a four.
3. Deming (20-6). The Wildcats are here because they went 6-0 in 3AAAA and have won 15 straight games. That trumps Artesia's win over Roswell, but they should pay careful attention to Saturday's game. Very close attention.
4. Artesia (19-7). The Bulldogs' 1-4 struggle before a 2-0 finish last week has them here. If they expect to move up to a three - or even a two - they have to beat Roswell. Otherwise, they are stuck here. Well, if they lose to Goddard ...
5. Los Alamos (18-8). Oh, what could have been. The Hilltoppers were impressive at times against Española, but still lost when a win would have sewn up the district's top seed. There's still hope to move up, but Los Alamos needs to win the district tournament for that to happen.
6. Belen (17-10). One more win, Eagles. Just one more. the committee should be impressed with the back-to-back wins over St. Pius X, but they need one more - in the 6AAAA championship - to really solidify a good spot. Heck, they might jump over Los Alamos, even though the Hilltoppers beat them twice.
7. St. Pius X (18-9). The beeping sound heard around Sartans Garden was the Sartan truck taking a few steps back. But is what happens when a team plays so many close games like St. Pius does. Redemption will come if the Sartans can beat the Eagles, which will even the season series to 2-2. Then it will come down to resumes, and St. Pius has an impressive one.
8. Albuquerque Academy (7-19). Academy has restored itself. The top seed in 5AAAA, a nice win over La Cueva, blowouts in all six district games. Oh, and Pat Zacharias is playing himself back into shape. Which is bad news for .... Española?
9. Bernalillo (15-11). Congratulations, Spartans. After floundering through your first three years in Class AAAA, the Spartans look like they belong. Of course, they belong in the middle of the pack, but it's better than where they have been.
10. Farmington (12-13). The Santa Teresa Rule is in effect here. To explain: Two years ago, the Desert Warriors of Santa Teresa won 3AAAA, but with a 10-17 record to show in the worst district in the state. They were given an 11 seed for the 2007 state tournament and thus establishing the rule of thumb I will use.
Are the Scorpions worse than those Desert Warriors? The answer is no. So a 10 seed it is.
11. Capital (15-12). The Jaguar coaches might think they had influence on me. Sadly, no, that wasn't the case. Belen did, though. Because of the Eagles, the Hilltoppers went up a spot. And that means you guys do, too.
12. Grants (17-8). Sorry, Pirates. Yes, 17-8 is impressive. But ... Splits with Socorro and Pojoaque? A two-game sweep over Cuba and Shiprock? Wins over Valencia, Moriarty, Wingate and Santa Fe Indian School? Those are great wins if you were still in Class AAA, but this is a crappy AAAA resume. Oh, and you went 2-4 in 6AAAA. That made this move down much easier.
13. Silver (12-14). Be lucky you finished second in 3AAAA, Colts. Santa Teresa is looking better and better by the moment. Better than you, at least.
(Shhh ... Don't tell Roswell Goddard and Del Norte I said that!)
14. Shiprock (14-10). Watching the Chieftains and Piedra Vista pass second place back and forth with each other is like watching two NASCAR drivers duke it out for 30th place. No one cares other than their fans. Which explains why the Shiprock fans were so excited during their team's 67-63 double OT win on Friday.
15. Santa Teresa (14-11). Look at one win and a two-game winning streak can do! And just in the nick of time. If the Desert Warriors can upset Silver again in the 3AAAA semifinals, the 16th seed becomes a dog fight between ...
16. Goddard (10-15)/Del Norte (10-16). Speaking of 30th-place battles, the Rockets are in a heap of one with the fast-charging Knights. Del Norte has the advantage of playing Moriarty and Valencia in its district and produced a 4-2 5AAAA record. Goddard has ... Roswell and Artesia, and a 0-4 record is the result. Yuck ... If the Rockets can pull off a win over Artesia in the 4AAAA semifinal, they should prevail because Del Norte has to play ... Moriarty or Valencia. Yuck ....
Sorry, Piedra Vista. On the outside looking in for now. that's because your most impressive win is over ... Shiprock. By one. On the road. Other than that ... Well, if you have nothing nice to say ... Then read between the line.
Oh wait, I do have something good to say. Beat Shiprock. It's your only hope.
So there will be some adjustments. And for anyone who wants to take umbrage over Belen being seeded higher than St. Pius, well a 2-1 Eagles' edge in games is my retort.
Here we go.
Again ...
1. Española Valley (22-4). Regardless of what happens on Friday, the Sundevils are the No. 1 seed. Roswell's loss to the Bulldogs helped, and Deming just doesn't have the quality wins to usurp them. But the Sundevils' problem hasn't been with seeding ... It's been with what happens when they get to Albuquerque. And the margin for error this year among the top 5-10 teams is slim, at best.
2. Roswell (18-7). The Coyotes are still the top seed in District 4AAAA, but they split with Artesia, which should make the rematch on Saturday crucial for state seeding purposes. A win will secure this spot. A loss could drop them to a three or a four.
3. Deming (20-6). The Wildcats are here because they went 6-0 in 3AAAA and have won 15 straight games. That trumps Artesia's win over Roswell, but they should pay careful attention to Saturday's game. Very close attention.
4. Artesia (19-7). The Bulldogs' 1-4 struggle before a 2-0 finish last week has them here. If they expect to move up to a three - or even a two - they have to beat Roswell. Otherwise, they are stuck here. Well, if they lose to Goddard ...
5. Los Alamos (18-8). Oh, what could have been. The Hilltoppers were impressive at times against Española, but still lost when a win would have sewn up the district's top seed. There's still hope to move up, but Los Alamos needs to win the district tournament for that to happen.
6. Belen (17-10). One more win, Eagles. Just one more. the committee should be impressed with the back-to-back wins over St. Pius X, but they need one more - in the 6AAAA championship - to really solidify a good spot. Heck, they might jump over Los Alamos, even though the Hilltoppers beat them twice.
7. St. Pius X (18-9). The beeping sound heard around Sartans Garden was the Sartan truck taking a few steps back. But is what happens when a team plays so many close games like St. Pius does. Redemption will come if the Sartans can beat the Eagles, which will even the season series to 2-2. Then it will come down to resumes, and St. Pius has an impressive one.
8. Albuquerque Academy (7-19). Academy has restored itself. The top seed in 5AAAA, a nice win over La Cueva, blowouts in all six district games. Oh, and Pat Zacharias is playing himself back into shape. Which is bad news for .... Española?
9. Bernalillo (15-11). Congratulations, Spartans. After floundering through your first three years in Class AAAA, the Spartans look like they belong. Of course, they belong in the middle of the pack, but it's better than where they have been.
10. Farmington (12-13). The Santa Teresa Rule is in effect here. To explain: Two years ago, the Desert Warriors of Santa Teresa won 3AAAA, but with a 10-17 record to show in the worst district in the state. They were given an 11 seed for the 2007 state tournament and thus establishing the rule of thumb I will use.
Are the Scorpions worse than those Desert Warriors? The answer is no. So a 10 seed it is.
11. Capital (15-12). The Jaguar coaches might think they had influence on me. Sadly, no, that wasn't the case. Belen did, though. Because of the Eagles, the Hilltoppers went up a spot. And that means you guys do, too.
12. Grants (17-8). Sorry, Pirates. Yes, 17-8 is impressive. But ... Splits with Socorro and Pojoaque? A two-game sweep over Cuba and Shiprock? Wins over Valencia, Moriarty, Wingate and Santa Fe Indian School? Those are great wins if you were still in Class AAA, but this is a crappy AAAA resume. Oh, and you went 2-4 in 6AAAA. That made this move down much easier.
13. Silver (12-14). Be lucky you finished second in 3AAAA, Colts. Santa Teresa is looking better and better by the moment. Better than you, at least.
(Shhh ... Don't tell Roswell Goddard and Del Norte I said that!)
14. Shiprock (14-10). Watching the Chieftains and Piedra Vista pass second place back and forth with each other is like watching two NASCAR drivers duke it out for 30th place. No one cares other than their fans. Which explains why the Shiprock fans were so excited during their team's 67-63 double OT win on Friday.
15. Santa Teresa (14-11). Look at one win and a two-game winning streak can do! And just in the nick of time. If the Desert Warriors can upset Silver again in the 3AAAA semifinals, the 16th seed becomes a dog fight between ...
16. Goddard (10-15)/Del Norte (10-16). Speaking of 30th-place battles, the Rockets are in a heap of one with the fast-charging Knights. Del Norte has the advantage of playing Moriarty and Valencia in its district and produced a 4-2 5AAAA record. Goddard has ... Roswell and Artesia, and a 0-4 record is the result. Yuck ... If the Rockets can pull off a win over Artesia in the 4AAAA semifinal, they should prevail because Del Norte has to play ... Moriarty or Valencia. Yuck ....
Sorry, Piedra Vista. On the outside looking in for now. that's because your most impressive win is over ... Shiprock. By one. On the road. Other than that ... Well, if you have nothing nice to say ... Then read between the line.
Oh wait, I do have something good to say. Beat Shiprock. It's your only hope.
AAAAA seedings preview 2/24
After a week of upsets, coin flips and playoff games (actually just one in AAAAA), the playoff picture takes a much sharper image. So, movement of teams will decrease. Here's how I see AAAAA stacking up as the district tournaments commence:
EDIT: A late addendum to my seedings. According to NMAA rules, coin flips and playoff games don't affect how the seeding committees place teams. Therefore, the situation with Highland, Rio Grande and Eldorado could play out much differently. However, the committee can use head-to-head matchups plus the district tournament finish to determine placement of teams in respect to their district finish.
Example) If Eldorado was to beat Highland and Rio Grande, the committee can choose to place Eldorado higher than the other two teams based on the Eagles' hypothetical 2-1 record and by finishing first or second in the district tournament. Just food for thought.
Therefore, my seedings will reflect how they are seeded for now, but will change if the order of finish in district play is any different.
1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (23-2). The Monarchs aren't just one of the hottest teams in the class, they might be the most dominant. Since beating Albuquerque Academy 56-47 on Jan. 13, Manzano has beaten its opponents by an average of 21.8 points per game in winning all 12. Overall, the Monarchs have won 14 in a row and after Clovis beat Hobbs on Saturday, they should rest easily that they are the No. 1 seed for the state tournament.
2. Hobbs (21-5). Should a 15-point loss to a top AAAAA team drop a team behind another that has won 18 in a row (albeit against inferior competition?). This is where strength of schedule kicks in. Hobbs beat Clovis, Española Valley (the top seed in AAAA), Roswell (a top three in AAAA) and Artesia (a top five in AAAA). Just don't lose to Clovis again.
3. Gallup (21-3). The Bengals are close to overtaking the second seed, mainly because of its hot streak. While Hobbs looks like it has the advantage schedule-wise, Gallup does have wins over Clovis and AAAA's Albuquerque Academy, but the loss to the Sundevils is the biggest difference between it and Hobbs. A win over the 1AAAAA runner-up - likely to be Rio Rancho - should solidify a three.
4. Valley (20-6). Today's playoff with La Cueva will settle everything between the Vikings and the Bears. The winner gets this slot.
5. La Cueva (19-7). The Bears are here for now because of a 3-3 limp in their final six games of the regular season. Of course, those losses were to Manzano, Valley and Academy, so the sting is felt much less. A win over Valley would wipe them out.
6. Las Cruces (21-5). The Bulldogs' loss to Mayfield last week has been forgiven, thanks to the mess that is District 5AAAAA. The 3AAAAA champions likely will remain here, so long as they don't take another lump in the district championship.
7. Clovis (17-9). The Wildcats are playing their best ball at the moment, capping a four-game streak with a win over the Eagles. Thanks to a coin flip, Eldorado dropped precipitously. Good for the Wildcats.
8. Rio Grande (16-10). The Ravens received some good from a bad finish in District 5AAAAA. They won the coin flip in a three-way tie for second in the district, and Rio Grande salvaged a 2-4 slump.
9. Rio Rancho (14-12). The Rams rise coincides with the fall of Eldorado and Alamogordo. The Rams also have the more impressive resume of the remaining district runners-up. They also beat Las Cruces Oñate, which means a lot in this scenario.
10. Highland (21-5). Despite a 4-1 finish - and 4-0 in 5AAAAA - the Hornets paid the price for a three-game district losing streak. So instead of a certain top five seed, Highland could end up here. And woe to the No. 7 seed that has to face the Hornets.
11. Eldorado (17-9). The Eagles went from second to the fourth seed in 5AAAAA in two flips of a coin - one to give the Ravens the No. 2 seed, the other to place Highland at No. 3. Oh, two straight district losses, to Manzano and Rio Grande, also helped.
12. Las Cruces Oñate (15-11). The Knights took second in 3AAAAA, finishing with a win over Las Cruces Mayfield on Friday. Their luck was with the collapse of Alamogordo, which fell apart in the final two weeks of the season.
13. Alamogordo (18-8). The Tigers were cruising along until a loss to Las Cruces on Feb. 6. No problem, just beat Oñate at home. They almost did, but lost 39-38 on Feb. 13. Fine. Just don't blow it against Mayfield on Feb. 17 .... Oops. 77-72, Trojans. At least Alamogordo beat Gadsden to stop the bleeding. But it was pretty bad until that point.
14. Sandia (13-13). The Matadors are in. Book it. They're third in 2AAAAA and have the best record of the rest of the candidates for an at-large berth. They've pretty much hit their ceiling - and the floor, too.
15. Gadsden (12-12). The Panthers took care of business by finishing fourth in 3AAAAA. So Monday's loss to Mayfield shouldn't hurt - even if the Trojans make a run to a district title and earn the other automatic state tourney bid. Hurray!
16. Carlsbad (12-14). The Cavemen are in ... for now. But they have to hope for no upsets. So that means West Mesa, Cibola, Mayfield, Santa Fe High, Albuquerque High and Los Lunas have to play to their level - which is the bottom of their respective districts. The Trojans didn't do them any favors, however, with a win over Gadsden.
EDIT: A late addendum to my seedings. According to NMAA rules, coin flips and playoff games don't affect how the seeding committees place teams. Therefore, the situation with Highland, Rio Grande and Eldorado could play out much differently. However, the committee can use head-to-head matchups plus the district tournament finish to determine placement of teams in respect to their district finish.
Example) If Eldorado was to beat Highland and Rio Grande, the committee can choose to place Eldorado higher than the other two teams based on the Eagles' hypothetical 2-1 record and by finishing first or second in the district tournament. Just food for thought.
Therefore, my seedings will reflect how they are seeded for now, but will change if the order of finish in district play is any different.
1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (23-2). The Monarchs aren't just one of the hottest teams in the class, they might be the most dominant. Since beating Albuquerque Academy 56-47 on Jan. 13, Manzano has beaten its opponents by an average of 21.8 points per game in winning all 12. Overall, the Monarchs have won 14 in a row and after Clovis beat Hobbs on Saturday, they should rest easily that they are the No. 1 seed for the state tournament.
2. Hobbs (21-5). Should a 15-point loss to a top AAAAA team drop a team behind another that has won 18 in a row (albeit against inferior competition?). This is where strength of schedule kicks in. Hobbs beat Clovis, Española Valley (the top seed in AAAA), Roswell (a top three in AAAA) and Artesia (a top five in AAAA). Just don't lose to Clovis again.
3. Gallup (21-3). The Bengals are close to overtaking the second seed, mainly because of its hot streak. While Hobbs looks like it has the advantage schedule-wise, Gallup does have wins over Clovis and AAAA's Albuquerque Academy, but the loss to the Sundevils is the biggest difference between it and Hobbs. A win over the 1AAAAA runner-up - likely to be Rio Rancho - should solidify a three.
4. Valley (20-6). Today's playoff with La Cueva will settle everything between the Vikings and the Bears. The winner gets this slot.
5. La Cueva (19-7). The Bears are here for now because of a 3-3 limp in their final six games of the regular season. Of course, those losses were to Manzano, Valley and Academy, so the sting is felt much less. A win over Valley would wipe them out.
6. Las Cruces (21-5). The Bulldogs' loss to Mayfield last week has been forgiven, thanks to the mess that is District 5AAAAA. The 3AAAAA champions likely will remain here, so long as they don't take another lump in the district championship.
7. Clovis (17-9). The Wildcats are playing their best ball at the moment, capping a four-game streak with a win over the Eagles. Thanks to a coin flip, Eldorado dropped precipitously. Good for the Wildcats.
8. Rio Grande (16-10). The Ravens received some good from a bad finish in District 5AAAAA. They won the coin flip in a three-way tie for second in the district, and Rio Grande salvaged a 2-4 slump.
9. Rio Rancho (14-12). The Rams rise coincides with the fall of Eldorado and Alamogordo. The Rams also have the more impressive resume of the remaining district runners-up. They also beat Las Cruces Oñate, which means a lot in this scenario.
10. Highland (21-5). Despite a 4-1 finish - and 4-0 in 5AAAAA - the Hornets paid the price for a three-game district losing streak. So instead of a certain top five seed, Highland could end up here. And woe to the No. 7 seed that has to face the Hornets.
11. Eldorado (17-9). The Eagles went from second to the fourth seed in 5AAAAA in two flips of a coin - one to give the Ravens the No. 2 seed, the other to place Highland at No. 3. Oh, two straight district losses, to Manzano and Rio Grande, also helped.
12. Las Cruces Oñate (15-11). The Knights took second in 3AAAAA, finishing with a win over Las Cruces Mayfield on Friday. Their luck was with the collapse of Alamogordo, which fell apart in the final two weeks of the season.
13. Alamogordo (18-8). The Tigers were cruising along until a loss to Las Cruces on Feb. 6. No problem, just beat Oñate at home. They almost did, but lost 39-38 on Feb. 13. Fine. Just don't blow it against Mayfield on Feb. 17 .... Oops. 77-72, Trojans. At least Alamogordo beat Gadsden to stop the bleeding. But it was pretty bad until that point.
14. Sandia (13-13). The Matadors are in. Book it. They're third in 2AAAAA and have the best record of the rest of the candidates for an at-large berth. They've pretty much hit their ceiling - and the floor, too.
15. Gadsden (12-12). The Panthers took care of business by finishing fourth in 3AAAAA. So Monday's loss to Mayfield shouldn't hurt - even if the Trojans make a run to a district title and earn the other automatic state tourney bid. Hurray!
16. Carlsbad (12-14). The Cavemen are in ... for now. But they have to hope for no upsets. So that means West Mesa, Cibola, Mayfield, Santa Fe High, Albuquerque High and Los Lunas have to play to their level - which is the bottom of their respective districts. The Trojans didn't do them any favors, however, with a win over Gadsden.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
Posts
