AAAAA seedings preview 2/24

After a week of upsets, coin flips and playoff games (actually just one in AAAAA), the playoff picture takes a much sharper image. So, movement of teams will decrease. Here's how I see AAAAA stacking up as the district tournaments commence:

EDIT: A late addendum to my seedings. According to NMAA rules, coin flips and playoff games don't affect how the seeding committees place teams. Therefore, the situation with Highland, Rio Grande and Eldorado could play out much differently. However, the committee can use head-to-head matchups plus the district tournament finish to determine placement of teams in respect to their district finish.
Example) If Eldorado was to beat Highland and Rio Grande, the committee can choose to place Eldorado higher than the other two teams based on the Eagles' hypothetical 2-1 record and by finishing first or second in the district tournament. Just food for thought.
Therefore, my seedings will reflect how they are seeded for now, but will change if the order of finish in district play is any different.

1. Albuqueruqe Manzano (23-2). The Monarchs aren't just one of the hottest teams in the class, they might be the most dominant. Since beating Albuquerque Academy 56-47 on Jan. 13, Manzano has beaten its opponents by an average of 21.8 points per game in winning all 12. Overall, the Monarchs have won 14 in a row and after Clovis beat Hobbs on Saturday, they should rest easily that they are the No. 1 seed for the state tournament.
2. Hobbs (21-5). Should a 15-point loss to a top AAAAA team drop a team behind another that has won 18 in a row (albeit against inferior competition?). This is where strength of schedule kicks in. Hobbs beat Clovis, Española Valley (the top seed in AAAA), Roswell (a top three in AAAA) and Artesia (a top five in AAAA). Just don't lose to Clovis again.
3. Gallup (21-3). The Bengals are close to overtaking the second seed, mainly because of its hot streak. While Hobbs looks like it has the advantage schedule-wise, Gallup does have wins over Clovis and AAAA's Albuquerque Academy, but the loss to the Sundevils is the biggest difference between it and Hobbs. A win over the 1AAAAA runner-up - likely to be Rio Rancho - should solidify a three.
4. Valley (20-6). Today's playoff with La Cueva will settle everything between the Vikings and the Bears. The winner gets this slot.
5. La Cueva (19-7). The Bears are here for now because of a 3-3 limp in their final six games of the regular season. Of course, those losses were to Manzano, Valley and Academy, so the sting is felt much less. A win over Valley would wipe them out.
6. Las Cruces (21-5). The Bulldogs' loss to Mayfield last week has been forgiven, thanks to the mess that is District 5AAAAA. The 3AAAAA champions likely will remain here, so long as they don't take another lump in the district championship.
7. Clovis (17-9). The Wildcats are playing their best ball at the moment, capping a four-game streak with a win over the Eagles. Thanks to a coin flip, Eldorado dropped precipitously. Good for the Wildcats.
8. Rio Grande (16-10). The Ravens received some good from a bad finish in District 5AAAAA. They won the coin flip in a three-way tie for second in the district, and Rio Grande salvaged a 2-4 slump.
9. Rio Rancho (14-12). The Rams rise coincides with the fall of Eldorado and Alamogordo. The Rams also have the more impressive resume of the remaining district runners-up. They also beat Las Cruces Oñate, which means a lot in this scenario.
10. Highland (21-5). Despite a 4-1 finish - and 4-0 in 5AAAAA - the Hornets paid the price for a three-game district losing streak. So instead of a certain top five seed, Highland could end up here. And woe to the No. 7 seed that has to face the Hornets.
11. Eldorado (17-9). The Eagles went from second to the fourth seed in 5AAAAA in two flips of a coin - one to give the Ravens the No. 2 seed, the other to place Highland at No. 3. Oh, two straight district losses, to Manzano and Rio Grande, also helped.
12. Las Cruces Oñate (15-11). The Knights took second in 3AAAAA, finishing with a win over Las Cruces Mayfield on Friday. Their luck was with the collapse of Alamogordo, which fell apart in the final two weeks of the season.
13. Alamogordo (18-8). The Tigers were cruising along until a loss to Las Cruces on Feb. 6. No problem, just beat Oñate at home. They almost did, but lost 39-38 on Feb. 13. Fine. Just don't blow it against Mayfield on Feb. 17 .... Oops. 77-72, Trojans. At least Alamogordo beat Gadsden to stop the bleeding. But it was pretty bad until that point.
14. Sandia (13-13). The Matadors are in. Book it. They're third in 2AAAAA and have the best record of the rest of the candidates for an at-large berth. They've pretty much hit their ceiling - and the floor, too.
15. Gadsden (12-12). The Panthers took care of business by finishing fourth in 3AAAAA. So Monday's loss to Mayfield shouldn't hurt - even if the Trojans make a run to a district title and earn the other automatic state tourney bid. Hurray!
16. Carlsbad (12-14). The Cavemen are in ... for now. But they have to hope for no upsets. So that means West Mesa, Cibola, Mayfield, Santa Fe High, Albuquerque High and Los Lunas have to play to their level - which is the bottom of their respective districts. The Trojans didn't do them any favors, however, with a win over Gadsden.