A look at AAAA girls projections

Now that we are nearing the end of the season for most of the state, let's take a look at the girls side and see where the teams stack right now.

1. Grants (25-1). The Lady Pirates are clearly the team to beat in AAAA. They have wins over regular season district champions in Piedra Vista (twice over the District 1AAAA champ), Roswell (4AAAA), Las Vegas Robertson (2AAA), Albquerque St. Pius X (District 5AAAA) a,d Navajo Prep (1AA). That Grants is on a 14-game winning streak only strengthens its case for the top seed. Not even a loss to Gallup in the 6AAAA tournament championship will affect that.
2. Piedra Vista (19-7). There are teams that have better records than the Lady Panthers, but no one in Class AAAA can say they beat Kirtland Central. Not even Grants can. Yes, PV lost to Española Valley, Miyamura and Farmington, but those two wins over the Lady Chieftains trump that. See last year's AAA boys tournament with St. Michael's and Sandia Prep for setting precedent (Horsemen got a 2 seed despite a 3-6 finish because of Sandia Prep's resume).
3. Kirtland Central (23-4). If not for getting swept by Piedra Vista, the Lady Chieftains would be the top seed. Its only AAAA losses are to PV (the others are to AAAAA Clovis and AAA Santa Fe Indian School). Kirtland also has wins over SFIS, Grants, St. Pius and two over Shiprock (1AAA champion).
4. Roswell (19-7). It was a hard decision between the Lady Coyotes and Española Valley, but what tipped the scales in their favor was the schedule. Of Roswell's seven losses, six came to AAAAA schools and five of them were district champions or runners-up. The other loss? To Grants. The Lady Coyotes also own three wins over District 4AAA champion Portales and another over Hobbs, the 4AAAAA runner up.
5. Española Valley (23-3). The record looks good, but the Lady Sundevils' strength of schedule is not quite to the level of the top 4. Their best win is over 4AAAA runner-up Artesia and have two wins over the 2AAA runner-up (Taos), one over the third-place team in ultra-competitive 5AAA (St. Michael's) and another over 2AA runner-up Peñasco.
6. Gallup (18-9). The Lady Bengals wasted little time to make a statement, beating Las Cruces Mayfield, the 3AAAAA champion, in the Tip-Off Classic. They've added wins over Piedra Vista, the District 1AAA champ (Shiprock) and the 4AAA champ (Portales) to its resume. If not for its inability to beat Grants, Gallup might have been a top-4 seed.
7. Artesia (18-9). The Lady Bulldogs finished second in District 4AAAA to Roswell and has two wins over Deming. It also had two tough losses in the Aztec Tournament to SFIS and Española.
8. Santa Fe High (18-7). A win over Española got the state's attention, but a loss to Bernalillo took some luster off an 11-2 finish. This is one of those cases where a win back in December helped the Demonettes to this finish over ...
9. Valencia (20-7). It was a flip of the coin, but I chose to give the Demonettes, the 2AAAA runners-up, the home game over the Lady Jaguars, the third-place team in 6AAAA, because of Santa Fe High's 48-39 win in Capital's Lady Jaguar invite on December. Valencia was certainly worthy of an 8, what with wins over Deming (the 3AAAA champ) and Gallup. But it also had losses to 13-11 St. Pius and a late-season gnawer to district fourth-place Miyamura.
10. Albuqueque St. Pius X (13-11). Remember when 5AAAA was as tough a district as any in AAAA? Well, so do the Lady Sartans. They did have a win over Valencia and another over Farmington (third in 1AAAA) and played the usual AAAAA filled schedule. But they lacked signature wins. At least winning district will get them this.
11. Farmington (15-11). The Lady Scorpions moved up by virtue of its win over PV late in the 1AAAA season. They also own a win over Shiprock and were competitive at times against Kirtland Central and in the season opener again Grants.
12. Deming (13-11). Yes, the Lady Wildcats are the 3AAAA champions, but that only gets you admission to the state tournament. When the signature win is against AAA's Hot Springs (16-10) and two wins over AAAAA Alamogordo (9-18) and Gadsden (11-17), that doesn't say much.
13. Miyamura (15-11). The Patriots are making a name for themselves in just three years as a varsity program. They own a win over St. Pius, Piedra Vista, Farmington and Valencia and have close losses to SFIS and Española. However, finishing tied for third in district drops them to here.
14. Albuquerque Del Norte (12-13). The nice thing about being in Albuquerque is scheduling, but only if you win. The Lady Knights struggled with that. They didn't beat a AAAAA school until a rematch with Valley in January. They did beat Farmington and Bernalillo and played St. Pius close. A 5-3 mark in 5AAAA helps - a little.
15. Los Alamos (12-15). The Lady Hilltoppers benefit from playing a tough schedule, but their best win was over St. Pius. The loss to Bernalillo in the 2AAAA tournament was damaging, but not enough to lose a spot.
16. Bernalillo (14-13). If not for a run to the 2AAAA semifinals this weekend, the Lady Spartans might be sweating it out with Los Lunas for the last spot. Still, they held a trump card the Lady Tigers couldn't touch - not even with a 36-32 win over Bernalillo. Call it the Valentine's Day Gift: Bernalillo 51, Santa Fe High 42 on that day. Pack your bags. You're going to ... Grants.
On second thought, don't.