Mar 6, 2009

Feeding the State Tournament beast ...

The fun begins in just a few hours, and if you're out on the road tonight, you probably will see evidence of that in the form of cars decorated in congratulations on their windows and buses heading back home.
So, if you want more to feed on for the coming hours and days, here you go.

Here are my predictions for tonight's area games. I'd need a lot more caffeine to do all 24 big-school games tonight. Maybe tomorrow. Just wait and see.

Class AAAA
No. 7 Belen at No. 10 EspaƱola Valley, 6 p.m. - This might be the most entertaining game in AAAA tonight. The Lady Sundevils got the home game for being the District 2AAA champions, and it might prove worthwhile. They will try to press and force turnovers against the taller lady Eagles, but Belen has some very good shooters. Too good, in fact.
Verdict: Belen 56, EspaƱola 50
No. 13 Los Alamos at No. 4 Kirtland Central, 7 p.m. If you had told me after last year that these two teams would be, I'd have responded by saying, "That's a good quarterfinal matchup." But a lot has happened on The Hill. Most of it surrounds the transition from former head coach Gerry Washburn to Tara Logan. This team had Top-4 material heading into the year, but it never materialized. That said, if Los Alamos puts together a strong game, it can pull off the upset. But that's been a challenge all year.
Verdict: Kirtland Central 55, Los Alamos 45

Class AAA
No. 16 Wingate at No. 1 Pojoaque, 7 p.m. Blowout, rout, thumped, thrashed, blasted. Use any of those words to describe tonight. The reason to watch this game? To see the Elkettes tie the 1997-98 team's 28-0 record. Win No. 28 in 1998 was for a AAA title. Win No. 28 in 2009 is to get to Albuquerque for the defending state champions.
Verdict: Pojoaque 57, Wingate 26
No. 13 Thoreau at No. 4 St. Michael's, 7 p.m. The Lady Hawks beat Albuquerque Hope Christian in the 5AAA tournaments, and normally that should be a note of concern for any opponents, much less the Lady Horsemen. But the Lady Huskies are not the same team - they lost 10 straight games, including a 63-50 decision over St. Michael's in December, before responding with an 8-0 district record. So that win might not be as significant. Still, the Lady Horsemen are in no position to overlook Thoreau. Their 2AAA semifinal loss to West Las Vegas is an example of what can happen.
Verdict: St. Michael's 54, Thoreau 43.
No. 10 Ruidoso at No. 7 West Las Vegas, 7 p.m. The Lady Warriors have been competitive since the calendar flipped to 2009. Their seven losses since then have been by less than 14 points, including two to No. 2 Portales and three to No. 3 Lovington. But then there's this: West Las Vegas 68, Ruidoso 51, Brian Gallegos Tournament championship.
Verdict: West Las Vegas 63, Ruidoso 51.
No. 11 Las Vegas Robertson at No. 6 Crownpoint 6 p.m. If you stare at Crownpoint's 19-7 record, you can convince yourself the Lady Eagles are tough. Then you take away a 10-2 1AAA record and a win in the district tournament. That leaves an 8-5 team. Then strip wins over Class AA Rehoboth, Navajo Prep (twice), and A school Ramah, and you have ... a 3-5 team against nondistrict schools AAA and above. Oh, and remove that win over Miyamura in the Shiprock tournament in December. And you've got ... Ummm .... Good luck, Lady Eagles!
Verdict: Robertson 58, Crownpoint 52.
No. 12 Santa Fe Indian School at No. 5 Hope Christian, 7 p.m. Just like the Robertson-Crownpoint matchup, this one has upset written all over it. If you read the capsule for the St. Michael's game, then you know that Hope Christian is a weak fifth. And the Lady Braves are as strong a 12 seed as you can get. There's also history on the SFIS side: The 12 seed in AAA has reached the semifinals the last two years.
Verdict: SFIS 51, Hope Christian 46.


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