Bracket busting 101 ... Class AAAA style

As I talked with Capital High's Reece Goodman after the Jaguars' 56-52 win over Los Alamos, Goodman brought up the significance of the win - and not just from a district standpoint.
"We needed that not just for standings but for rankings as well," Goodman said. "That way we don't get a 12 or a 13 seed. I don't know, but maybe we're a 10 or something like that.
Well, I suppose it's NEVER too early to handicap the AAAA seedings, and Reece gives me a nice segue into that.
And with that, I'll start with the biggest topic: Who's No.1 right now? Roswell? Española?
I'll tell you right about ... NOW:

1. Roswell (18-2). Yes the best record in AAAA resides in "The Valley" but Roswell has one trump card over the Sundevils - it hasn't lost to a New Mexico team. The Coyotes are also ahead of the Sundevils in one critical category - AAAA wins. Roswell is 7-0, with six coming from out of district foes. Española is 4-0 - all in 2AAAA play. Until - or maybe if - Roswell loses, it stays right here.
2. Española (21-1). Yes, the Sundevils have played the toughest schedule in their history, but that loss to La Cueva is just enough for Roswell to trump them. A win over Hope Christian on Saturday would be impressive, but as long as Roswell is undefeated against NM teams, it can't be jumped.
3. Alb. Academy (15-7). Year in, year out, the Chargers play one of the toughest schedules of any team in the state. And year in, year out, they get beat up a little. Still, AA has two wins over 6AAAA leader Albuquerque Volcano Vista, another over Belen and two over St. Pius X. Those are wins in good standing. And they represent the one team that might be the wild card in a potential Sundevils-Coyotes final.
4. Volcano Vista (12-10). Suspend your disbelief at the record. Of the 10 losses, eight are to non-AAAA schools (seven AAAAA, one to Hope Christian). Two are to Academy. The Hawks have wins over St. Pius, Belen and Los Alamos. The one to the Hilltoppers is big because ....
5. Los Alamos (15-7). Give the Hilltoppers credit. They have played a AAAA-heavy schedule and haven't ducked the tougher teams (although Belen was snowed out permanently). They have wins over Kirtland Central (second in 1AAAA right now), St. Pius X and Grants (both tied for second in 6AAAA). Of course, the Hilltoppers' loss to Capital is only a paper cut right now, but it could be a flesh wound if the Jaguars take second in 2AAAA.
6. Piedra Vista (15-7). Beware of Brian Shock's Panthers. They have lost only one game to AAAA competition (to Belen) and are 11-1 since that loss to the Eagles. Piedra Vista will be tested by Kirtland Central tonight, but a win could help the Panthers move up. Los Alamos, do you hear those footsteps?
7. Santa Teresa (15-7). The Desert Warriors haven't been challenged in 3AAAA play, but they also only have four games against AAAA competition. Santa Teresa also has a disturbing loss to Portales (who is not the Portales of past years). Yet, its resume is the best of the rest.

Speaking of the rest ... There is a word for what Seeds 8-16 are ... But it can't be said here. Suffice it to say, they all look the same. But they're all different as well. So we'll let the chicken bones lay where they may ...

8. Kirtland Central (11-9). The Broncos are here because of their win over St. Pius, but it's a tenuous hold. They lost to Grants (who lost to St. Pius) and to Bloomfield (BLOOMFIELD!). And this ignores the eggs KC laid to 5-15 Moriarty (69-67) and 5-16 Farmington (in 1AAAA play, no less).
9. St. Pius X (8-14). The Sartans are here only because the Pirates and Eagles can't take care of business. St. Pius does have a win over Capital, but this team also lost to AAA Sandia Prep and Las Vegas Robertson. They need to keep their standing (second) and beat Grants and Belen again to solidify a good seed.
10. Grants (15-4). This is where things get infuriating. Grants beat Belen, but lost to St. Pius. And the Pirates lost to Kirtland Central. If they can gain control of second place, Grants moves up to eight and maybe even higher. So far, they've proven that they can't take of business .. Yet.
11. Belen (14-7). thank you, 0-2 6AAAA start. The Eagles looked like the second-best team behind Volcano Vista, but they stumble out of the gate. A win over St. Pius would be huge, and not just for them. Grants just might send a valentine your way by the end of the week.
12. Shiprock (13-7). The Chieftains are just like the Eagles. They looked like the second best team in 1AAAA, then boom! Losses to Kirtland Central and Piedra Vista. But a look at their resumes shows only a AAAA nondistrict win over Taos. Siprock also owns AAA losses to Santa Fe Indian School and Robertson
13. Capital (9-10). The Jaguars control their own destiny. If they run through the rest of the district season unblemished, they are in second and would be 9-3 against AAAA competition. A sweep of Los Alamos would enhance a less-than-stellar profile. But there's a reason why they are lumped into this clustered group.
14. Chaparral (9-13). The Lobos are in if they can finish second. They also have some decent losses to Alamogordo (41-39), Las Cruces Mayfield (74-67) and Carlsbad (65-60).
15. Roswell Goddard (9-13). The Rockets have beaten Artesia and are in line for second behind Roswell. Silver is 1-6 over their last seven games and Aztec is fourth in its district. Can't take four teams from a mediocre district and three from a bad one.
16. Valencia (9-13). The Jaguars almost are a good team. They've almost beaten: Capital (49-47), Piedra Vista (52-48), Volcano Vista (35-28), Belen (53-50) and Grants (61-53). Valencia should be the second place team behind the Charger, that makes them good enough for state.