Class AAAAA projections

You know, this was supposed to be a light and care-free posting, then reality slapped me in the face. Watching Dylan Fritsch tumble into the Toby Roybal Memorial Gymnasium floor was a jolt that I still haven't recovered from. Never have I seen a fall that hard and a body react so violently to a fall. It's amazing what the human body can endure, and the fact that Fritsch was released hours after the incident illustrates that.
I am glad to hear he is fine and that he wants to play again. And I hope he does. Not just because he is such an important piece to Albuquerque La Cueva's run to a second state title. But because he deserves that chance. It's good that the junior is a junior, because at worst, he'll have one more year to play. I'd rather see him in Albuquerque, and his team is playing in the state tournament.
Speaking of the state tournament, the flurry of activity over the last three days has made an impact on the seedings, but let's see how I see things playing out with just one week left in the regular season.


1. - Eldorado (21-3). Feb. 16 can't get here soon enough. The Eagles are No. 1 right now because their only AAAAA loss is to Albuquerque Manzano. The problem with that, however, is that the Monarchs share space in District 5AAAAA along with the top spot with Eldorado. The Eagles' strength is two wins over Albuquerque Highland and one over the reigning AAAAA champion, La Cueva. The winner on Feb. 16, though, has a strong claim to the top spot. The winner will have that in my estimation.
2. Las Cruces Mayfield (18-4). An argument can be made for the Monarchs to occupy this space, but here is my counter. Mayfield is 10-1 vs. AAAAA competition, while Manzano is 13-2. It's splitting hairs, but that's the razor-thin difference right now. Oh, and the Trojans lead District 3AAAAA.
3. Manzano (20-5). The Monarchs are on a roll, having won eight straight games. The regular season ends with the tilt against Eldorado, but I think it's safe to say Manzano is a Top-4 seed regardless of what happens on Tuesday.
4. La Cueva (19-4). The Bears pushed through the adversity of losing Fritsch with a huge win over The Hive on Saturday. That solidifies their standing here - for now. The Bears are looking at a replay of last season, which means a one-game playoff with Albuquerque Valley for the 2AAAAA top seed. There is nothing to suggest that Albuquerque Sandia and Albuquerque High can upset the Bears, but any extended absence of Fritsch might make that happen. Godspeed, Dylan.
5. Valley (15-9). Finishing strong is as important component as record, and the Vikings are hot. They are 12-3 after a 4-6 start, and were a desperation 3-point heave away from taking control of 2AAAAA before losing to La Cueva nine days ago. Valley also beat the Bears, which might be the best win of the remaining teams.
6. Clovis (12-9). The Wildcats might be 12-9, but they are 6-1 against AAAAA competition. The key to keeping a high seed depends on navigating the final week of the District 4AAAAA season against a fast-rising Carlsbad and traditional rival Hobbs. An undefeated record and a 4AAAAA championship are essential to keeping a good position
7. Gallup (15-9). Should a third-place team be seeded ahead of a district leader? Highland has an argument to be seeded in this slot, but the Hornets are sliding fast (three straight losses during a 3-4 stretch). The Bengals are off to a 5-2 start in 1AAAAA, so a loss to Rio Rancho Cleveland Saturday won't hurt.
8. Highland (17-7). The Hornets are sliding and could lose their chance to host a first-round game. While the committee often doesn't look at out-of-class performance, a loss to AA school Mesilla Valley looks worse as Highland continues to lose. A sweep of Rio Grande and Los Lunas this week is crucial.
9. Gadsden (15-8). Even though the Panthers are just 3-3 in 3AAAAA, they move into this spot after Carlsbad handily beat Hobbs on Friday. Gadsden has split with the Caveman and are 5-4 against AAAAA competition. However, a loss to Alamogordo could come back to hurt.
10. Hobbs (18-7). The Eagles have struggled since a 14-1 start to the season. The good news is that Hobbs is 6-2 against AAAAA competition, with a win over Mayfield. But a 1-2 record in district is not what Hobbs is accustomed to. The district races looks out of reach (unless Carlsbad beats Clovis) but a win over Clovis can only help.
11. Rio Grande (13-11). The Ravens looked good with a 10-4 start, but they are 3-7 since then with a pair of AAAAA wins over Los Lunas. With the Cibola and Carlsbad making late-season moves, Rio Grande could slide into a matchup against the top three seeds.
12. Cibola (12-13). A funny thing happened to the Cougars - the got hot after a 4-8 start. They really caught fire with a five-game winning streak. Cibola is 9-12 against AAAAA competition and a win over Rio Rancho on Friday secures second place.
13. Carlsbad (12-11). Congrats on the win over Hobbs, Cavemen. But you were 3-5 against AAAAA schools before that and the Eagles are sliding. Carlsbad does have a good win over Gadsden, but that is coupled with a 67-64 loss to Alamogordo, the last-place team in 3AAAAA.
14. Albuquerque High (11-13). The Bulldogs might be the kings of Santa Fe (they beat St. Michael's, Capital and Santa Fe High - three times), but they haven't done much against the rest of the state . AHS did beat Gallup, but aside from beating the Demons twice in 2AAAAA play, those are the only wins over the last 11 games.
15. Santa Fe High (12-13). The Demons were in a good position when they were 10-6, but a 2-7 slide has made them a bubble team. The start was a misnomer - Santa Fe High beat only two AAAAA schools (West Mesa and Gallup). Since then, the wins have come against Sandia. Still, the Demons might benefit from a Matadors win over Albuquerque High. That would set up a three-way tie for third in 2AAAAA between the three schools. Problem is, it also sets up a three-way tie for last.
16. Rio Rancho (10-14). Thank God for District 1AAAAA play. Since then, the Rams are 3-3 and a pair of wins this week catapults them into second place into the district. Rio Rancho hasn't been the same since a 5-1 start, but this is what the 16-team bracket is all about - giving a team that has struggled a chance to save a season. And the Rams are in position for some salvation.